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Wheel of a Delta Boeing 757 flew off while it was preparing to take off at ATL

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Re: Wheel of a Delta Boeing 757 flew off while it was preparing to take off at ATL

#41

Post by sramsay »

akira2501 wrote: post #38
bequanna wrote: post #5

Here comes the confirmation bias. Now, every issue with a Boeing plane will be noticed, reported on and magnified. I'm not saying this is necessarily bad as there actually do seem to be some significant issues at Boeing. Hopefully, the result is an intense shakeup resulting in increased focus on quality.

> Now, every issue with a Boeing plane will be noticed, reported on and magnified. It is a safety critical industry. Did you expect something different? Would we be "better served" by acting differently? The goal of someone flying is to get there alive, not win the war against bias.

LOL. Requesting permission to use the phrase "the goal is not to win the war against bias" in future, highly relevant situations. ;)

Re: Wheel of a Delta Boeing 757 flew off while it was preparing to take off at ATL

#42

Post by Flatcircle »

Had a physics teacher in highschool, worked on a submarine. Told me that with government equipment like submarines, workers replace parts based on dates regardless of the wear and tear of the part. "If this screw is supposed to last 10 years, we're ordered to replace it in 7 years regardless of the condition."

With for profit companies, they'd try to push the parts to last 12 years instead of 10 by inspecting them and confirming they're still good.

Saving money this way isn't too big of a deal if you're McDonalds and it's an ice cream machine.

But if it's a for-profit airline it can turn into a problem.

Re: Wheel of a Delta Boeing 757 flew off while it was preparing to take off at ATL

#44

Post by mpreda »

SoftTalker wrote: post #15

All airliners occasionally have problems with wheels and/or tires. And occasionally have cracked window glass. And occasionally have engine failures. And occasionally have pressurization problems, Read avherald.com for a few days and you'll see that it happens to Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, Bombardier, and others. And with the number of flights worldwide, some kind of problem serious enough to cause a return to the aipo…

And all airliners ocasionally have two complete-loss crashes a few months apart?

(346 people died in two similar crashes: Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29, 2018 and Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 on March 10, 2019)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX_groundings

Re: Wheel of a Delta Boeing 757 flew off while it was preparing to take off at ATL

#45

Post by lawlessone »

Flatcircle wrote: post #42

Had a physics teacher in highschool, worked on a submarine. Told me that with government equipment like submarines, workers replace parts based on dates regardless of the wear and tear of the part. "If this screw is supposed to last 10 years, we're ordered to replace it in 7 years regardless of the condition." With for profit companies, they'd try to push the parts to last 12 years instead of 10 by inspecting them an…

I've heard the word AI being used around this before... and it scares me.

Re: Wheel of a Delta Boeing 757 flew off while it was preparing to take off at ATL

#46

Post by akira2501 »

bequanna wrote: post #39
akira2501 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Now, every issue with a Boeing plane will be noticed, reported on and magnified. It is a safety critical industry. Did you expect something different? Would we be "better served" by acting differently? The goal of someone flying is to get there alive, not win the war against bias.

The tone of your comment confuses me. I didn’t say it was a bad thing at all.

I was reacting to the suggestion that people will only react to this out of misplaced "confirmation bias." Your statement was qualified as "it's not _necessarily_ bad."

The suggestion is that a negative or useless human emotion may, in this case, be incidentally useful.

My suggestion is that it is not at all useless or negative, and due to the safety factors involved, this is more due to survival bias than confirmation bias.

I sort of felt you were punching down into the public crowd gathered around this issue, and I took some umbrage with that.

Re: Wheel of a Delta Boeing 757 flew off while it was preparing to take off at ATL

#48

Post by wenc »

Flatcircle wrote: post #42

Had a physics teacher in highschool, worked on a submarine. Told me that with government equipment like submarines, workers replace parts based on dates regardless of the wear and tear of the part. "If this screw is supposed to last 10 years, we're ordered to replace it in 7 years regardless of the condition." With for profit companies, they'd try to push the parts to last 12 years instead of 10 by inspecting them an…

It’s called predictive maintenance and it is the norm in many critical industries. Replacing equipment every fixed number of X years (no matter what the condition of the equipment is) is wasteful, costly disruptive and does not actually guarantee better reliability. (although it makes people feel better).

Most predictive maintenance is done with data — updated sensor data processed through a mathematical model derived from principles from reliability engineering. In a sense it’s actually more realistic than the X years model (which is a once off number derived from some reliability model too but doesn’t have the benefit of being updated with real data — it’s usually an overly conservative number)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_maintenance

There is no evidence that predictive maintenance is the cause of Boeing’s mishaps.

Re: Wheel of a Delta Boeing 757 flew off while it was preparing to take off at ATL

#49

Post by mvdtnz »

glitchc wrote: post #22
mvdtnz wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess that's a consequence of directly causing the deaths of 346 people. We are right to scrutinise them harshly.

Here is a list of the top ten causes of death in the US [1]. You will have a much better chance of reducing your risk of dying by giving up drinking and eating fatty foods than by giving up flying on a Boeing aircraft. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

This is a really weird response, man.

Re: Wheel of a Delta Boeing 757 flew off while it was preparing to take off at ATL

#50

Post by lwkl »

oh_nice_marmot wrote: post #30
mrits wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Americans don’t use tyre

That's highly unusual. How do their cars move?

Not sure if I missed your joke. But this is probably a joke based on the spelling of the word being British. So Americans use tires and the British use tyres.
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