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Self-driving as a case study for AGI

karpathy.github.io

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Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#41

Post by nl »

I think I broadly agree with how Karpathy thinks AGI will roll out with the exception of this bit:

> Some people get really upset about it, and do the equivalent of putting cones on Waymos in protest, whatever the equivalent of that may be. Of course, we’ve come nowhere close to seeing this aspect fully play out just yet, but when it does I expect it to be broadly predictive.

I think the equivalent of putting cones on Waymos in protest will involve large scale protests and civil unrest in some places. I think people will die (inadvertently?) because companies will act to put inadequately tested self-preservation modes in their hardware device to protect against aggressive and organized vandalism.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#42

Post by ActorNightly »

CuriouslyC wrote: post #10

I don't things like "full self driving" are meaningful (and probably also AGI), because in reality it isn't a binary thing, rather it's a spectrum of power based on error rate and problem space coverage. Waymo self driving works within a defined subset of the problem space, we can stick a goalpost in the sand in term of the known problem space and error rates and say that represents "full self driving" but the realit…

The issue with FSD systems as they are implemented today is that they aren't AI as much as just complex control algorithms. You can only go so far with mapping sequences of world snapshots to control actions.

I do think that once we start to investigate ML/AI structure in the direction of figuring out the correct solution rather than trying to just find functions for control algorithms based on input->output mappings, then a lot of these problems are going to disappear.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#43

Post by ActorNightly »

SnazzyJeff wrote: post #8

IMO a chatbot is sufficient to demonstrate AGI. I think the chinese room problem is as good as anything. Of course, there isn't much money in teaching a bot that only knows english chinese. EDIT, Wikipedia page for context: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room

We can probably all agree than an AGI should be able to form questions, or more generally seek out information that it needs to figure out the answer in some form and way.

Not only are there no LLMs in existence today can do this without explicit action mapping, but the mechanism for storing that piece of information would rely on doing a large number of training runs for transfer learning to retain that information, and we humans don't actually work like that.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#44

Post by nl »

a-dub wrote: post #26

"AGI: An autonomous system that surpasses human capabilities in the majority of economically valuable work." -- what an obscenely depressing reduction of a fascinating field of inquiry. who the hell snuck in and redefined the science of thinking machines to this sad and reductive get rich quick crap?

> who the hell snuck in and redefined the science of thinking machines to this sad and reductive get rich quick crap?

OpenAI, back in 2018: https://openai.com/charter

It wasn't particularly controversial at the time - didn't get mentioned in the HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16794194

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#45

Post by 3asdf123 »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #34
3asdf123 wrote: post #31

I now come to realize that if you don't want to drive it's better to have public transport. For the real fun part of owning a personal vehicle: sport car, road-trip... I doubt you would want a robot to take over.

You can already experience self driving cars by taking an Uber or a taxi, or being chauffeured if you are richer. None of that is new, the self driving aspect just promises to make those experiences perhaps more accessible (or at the very least, not less accessible than they are now). For example, I took a taxi to and from work every day when I lived in Beijing, which came to about 100 kuai/day for a 20-30 minute dri…

Yeah which I think the only remaining good application of self-driving car ( taxi ) doesn't bring that much convenient, since taxi here is already somewhat reasonably priced. I can't speak for the the US experience.

Also the article touches briefly on drivers going into jobless. A lot of drivers where i'm from seems to be retiring middle-old age working in taxi. I think it's a good job fit for them and I don't know how the new self-driving industry can provide the same thing (?)

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#46

Post by adrianN »

ActorNightly wrote: post #42
CuriouslyC wrote: post #10

I don't things like "full self driving" are meaningful (and probably also AGI), because in reality it isn't a binary thing, rather it's a spectrum of power based on error rate and problem space coverage. Waymo self driving works within a defined subset of the problem space, we can stick a goalpost in the sand in term of the known problem space and error rates and say that represents "full self driving" but the realit…

The issue with FSD systems as they are implemented today is that they aren't AI as much as just complex control algorithms. You can only go so far with mapping sequences of world snapshots to control actions. I do think that once we start to investigate ML/AI structure in the direction of figuring out the correct solution rather than trying to just find functions for control algorithms based on input->output mappings…

> You can only go so far with mapping sequences of world snapshots to control actions.

Mapping some complex input state to control actions is literally the definition of driving a vehicle.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#47

Post by adrianN »

ActorNightly wrote: post #43
SnazzyJeff wrote: post #8

IMO a chatbot is sufficient to demonstrate AGI. I think the chinese room problem is as good as anything. Of course, there isn't much money in teaching a bot that only knows english chinese. EDIT, Wikipedia page for context: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room

We can probably all agree than an AGI should be able to form questions, or more generally seek out information that it needs to figure out the answer in some form and way. Not only are there no LLMs in existence today can do this without explicit action mapping, but the mechanism for storing that piece of information would rely on doing a large number of training runs for transfer learning to retain that information,…

> we humans don't actually work like that

That is probably not a good criterion to decide whether something is intelligent or not.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#48

Post by riffraff »

YZF wrote: post #4

I think what Andrej is describing is more "automation" than AGI. His discussion of self-driving is more analogous to robots building cars in a Tesla factory displacing workers than anything AGI. We've already had "self driving" trains where we got rid of the human train driver. Nothing "AGI" about that. The evolution of getting cars to self drive not necessarily making the entity controlling the car more human-like i…

Yeah, it seems as if he has forgotten the G.

I recall Norvig's AI book preaching decades ago that "intelligent" does not mean able to do everything, and that for an agent to be useful it was enough to solve a small problem.

Which in my mind is where the G came from.

And yet we now suddenly go back to the old narrow definition?

I still see no path from LLMs and autonomous driving to AGI.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#49

Post by Hendrikto »

ycdxvjp wrote: post #35
CuriouslyC wrote: post #10

I don't things like "full self driving" are meaningful (and probably also AGI), because in reality it isn't a binary thing, rather it's a spectrum of power based on error rate and problem space coverage. Waymo self driving works within a defined subset of the problem space, we can stick a goalpost in the sand in term of the known problem space and error rates and say that represents "full self driving" but the realit…

It's not like people can generalize either. There are lots of famous drivers who ended up dead while driving.

But in most cases they intentionally pushed the limits. It‘s not as if they suddenly misidentified a firetruck and drove straight into it.
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