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The quiet death of Ello's big dreams

waxy.org

41–50 of 264 posts

Re: The quiet death of Ello's big dreams

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the game. Raise money, steal it, let the company go to the dogs.

I am often jealous of the people who make huge sums of money grifting investors, but the thing is I care too much about what I do and I’d be bad at pretending I don’t. The flip side is I instead love what I do and I’m very proud of my work, which I don’t think someone could really say if they’re shilling crap like plastic toys and NFTs. Or maybe they could say that, but I never could. Grifting is just not for me.

I used to work in public service (in chronological order, ranger, social security, LLC incorporation and radio spectrum licensing and management) before jumping into software with glee.

And I have the exact same thought about providing software for government and other large organisations.

The number of "solutions" my public service employers paid millions for, that didn't fucking work properly or reliably is mental.

I'm really not sure how contracts keep getting signed by big organisations that don't impose massive penalties on providers for failure, but it they do. Or the sister org that finally had enough and wanted to switch providers, and had to go to court in order to be even be able to pay a large amount for the IP rights to the source code of their system, because they'd signed a contract that let the provider retain IP, and the provider really liked that sweet sweet taxpayer money for buggy bollocks. So naturally, when they contracted HP to maintain the system they ensured that the contract retained IP ownership for their org.

Haha, no, I'm kidding, they let HP keep IP rights on changes HP made, and later on had to fight HP in the courts so they could pay HP for the source to switch providers again after getting sick of being charged $2K (USD) by HP to update the text of a single link on a website.

And I keep thinking that I'd very much like to be in the market of earning millions by providing broken software to people making big decisions who aren't competent enough to jump to private sector, broken software is easy.

But then the guilt of stealing taxpayer money kicks in (it's not legally stealing, but morally, it's stealing. As the saying kinda goes, any great criminal needs a great lawyer, a great accountant, and a corporation), as well as the guilt of professional ethics.

(What's the old joke about software ethics? An ethical programmer would never write a function called destroyBaghdad, they'd write a function called destroyCity and pass Baghdad as a parameter.)

But look at Birmingham Council in the UK, bankrupted by shit software and Oracle's fearsome legal team. The entire fucking disgrace that is Horizon (although being fair to Fujitsu, nearly all of the evil was on their customer's side, it was only aided and abetted by Fujitsu employees lying in court).

In my country, IBM sued our government (and won) because IBM wanted to be paid even more for not delivering a massively expensive and broken project to the Police (INCIS), more recently our Education dept spent $180 million on a payroll system called Novopay (they also paid the provider Talent2 to administer payroll with it) that was terribly broken and underpaid some teachers (and perhaps more egregiously, slightly overpaid some teachers, then the provider would eventually realise and demand the teacher repay the overpayment be returned in full in a short timeframe or debt collectors would be brought in, and threats of civil litigation or criminal complaints were used to pressure them) to the extent that teachers had to go on strike to get the government to take it seriously.

Eventually the government took back the admin side of it, and then gave Talent2 another $45 million to get the system working, and are still paying them to maintain it today.

The idea of being in a market where delivering badly broken software leads to you getting paid another 25% of the upfront cost to get it actually working, and you don't get fired, is wild.

I suppose there's a reason that Oracle and similar are described as law firms that incidentally write software, but damn, they make crypto grifters look like complete amateurs.

And I'll begrudgingly admit that Oracle et al are selling a product with actual utility at least, as opposed to NFTs which I'd call digital tulip bulbs, but that is mean to tulip bulbs because they can at least be used to grow flowers.

I've seen 0 use cases for NFTs / ICOs that aren't gambling/unhinged speculation (usually with some fraud involved to make Number Go up to suck in the rubes), or just good old fashioned direct to the consumer fraud dressed up in complicated jargon.

Re: The quiet death of Ello's big dreams

#42
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember when something-something twitter tried to migrate to Threads for like a week. And to Mastodon before that. Remember when tech Reddit tried to migrate to Lemmy? A hardcore handful of people migrate await from the Death Star and stay migrated (maybe a couple hundred medium accounts, and 1 or 2 bigger ones), but everybody else trickles back onto the Death Star eventually. The only thing that works to get peop…

Twxttxr is getting pretty close now - maybe in some ways surpassing Digg in awfulness. Specifically the massive level of pornbot traffic, and algorithm changes that seem to be intentionally surfacing posts to adversarial users who will then go on the attack.

The porn bots are pervasive and easily identifiable programmatically.

That they persist must mean that X wants them to persist.

Re: The quiet death of Ello's big dreams

#43
post #36

> I felt sad for the guy. It’s awful going through life never believing in anything. Being an idealist is fine, but being a dick is not. This article took on some personal schadenfreude after I read this line.

Hah, same here. That line jumped out to me as a big toxic red flag.

The quotes further down from users who suddenly lost all of their content were sad to read. It sucks how often regular people get burned for taking tech companies at their word.

Re: The quiet death of Ello's big dreams

#44
post #21
post #9

Even the supposedly indie anti-social social media outright violated their own manifesto. Is it any surprise that we're skeptical of the big promises of a bright future that corporations make all the time? I'm curious to know if anyone has evidence of a post similar to this but for a company with a (so far) happy ending.

I'm interested about the public benefit corporation part here. Did the PBC status wind up changing anything at all here? How does a PBC sell itself or get acquired? How is a PBC supposed to terminate or wind down? If they violate their charter as Ello may have, who exactly enforces it or file a lawsuit, and what is their compensation?

I suppose if the PBC was in debt then it could sell its assets, such as the Ello site, to pay its creditors and then dissolve.

Re: The quiet death of Ello's big dreams

#45

Just a reminder: If you are not paying for the product, you are the product. The internet culture birthed from the early days of the internet "Everything is free", seems to have captured a whole generation who simply have no concept of cost and value. Vid.me is another start-up that comes to mind: Youtube sucks, has too many ads, and sells your data. We won't have ads, won't sell your data, and will host all your con…

It's hard to relate it to scale, is why.

A sandwich costs $5 everywhere, and a car costs $30k everywhere, because that's just what those things cost to make.

It's relatively difficult to look at a web service and determine whether its running costs are normal guy hobby money, rich guy hobby money, or no seriously this won't last six months without VC money.

Decentralised and P2P systems run themselves, but it's hard for them to maintain a centre of gravity without offering something specific, and given that the network itself can't produce value out of thin air, it's probably not coincidental that the ones best able to maintain gravity are offering stuff stolen from elsewhere.

Re: The quiet death of Ello's big dreams

#46
post #10

I started building an open source private blogging system[1] when my first kid was born, and it eventually evolved into the skeleton of a social network--but fully decentralized using RSS and self- (or paid-) hosting. I concluded the only way for a network to actually avoid selling out was for there to be nothing to sell. If I give away the software, and don't control the network then there is no need for users to tr…

FYI, clicking the "Try the Demo" button doesn't do anything for me in Chrome or Firefox.

Re: The quiet death of Ello's big dreams

#48
post #9

Even the supposedly indie anti-social social media outright violated their own manifesto. Is it any surprise that we're skeptical of the big promises of a bright future that corporations make all the time? I'm curious to know if anyone has evidence of a post similar to this but for a company with a (so far) happy ending.

In a slightly broader manner, free software forking has been working out reasonably well: When the original branch goes off the rails, others can take over from a previous "known manageable" point. Forking leads to fractioning the user base but kinda, that's the point.

Re: The quiet death of Ello's big dreams

#49

I remember when tech twitter (or at least Node.js twitter) tried to migrate to Ello for like a week. A pretty good portion of my social network moved, myself included. But it fizzled out really quickly and we all ended up back on Twitter. Every once in a while I'd still get a notification from Ello that someone had followed me. It was always a porn bot, but the email notification was still nostalgic. A part of me is…

I remember when something-something twitter tried to migrate to Threads for like a week. And to Mastodon before that. Remember when tech Reddit tried to migrate to Lemmy? A hardcore handful of people migrate await from the Death Star and stay migrated (maybe a couple hundred medium accounts, and 1 or 2 bigger ones), but everybody else trickles back onto the Death Star eventually. The only thing that works to get peop…

Mastodon and Lemmy do feel different to me, because of the decentralization.

They are providing a foundation that gets built upon with every migration wave, and I think it’s plausible that they will eventually break into the mainstream.

Put another way, the fediverse is the first alternative that doesn’t need to “succeed” in order for development to continue. It’s a bootstrapped model. And so it can grow quietly, work out the usability kinks over time, and be ready to absorb users whenever they get fed up with the centralized platforms.

Re: The quiet death of Ello's big dreams

#50

I thought this was a fantastic post. I think it really dovetailed with what I've been thinking a lot about recently regarding my disillusionment with tech (or, rather, with big tech companies). I think everyone should understand (and, honestly, repeat daily) that in our modern capitalist system where never-ending growth is an expected requirement of any company that has ever taken outside funding, it is simply an imp…

Yes, this is a tech thing in particular. You don't see VC being raised for a plumbing company, they'll get an SBA loan or bootstrap. They don't need to grow 10x every year, if the owners can pay their bills and send their kids to college they're happy. And plumbing is such a constitutionally important thing: having hot, running water and not having feces in your house is so much important than seeing what that guy fr…

Two things here.

One is that the marginal cost of software(1) drives this pattern of winners and losers. The first user of any software costs an enormous amount of money to actually write the software and deliver it to customers. The 100th user costs basically nothing once you have 99 others. And the millionth user (or billionth) user costs basically nothing as well(2). That in turn means that having a billion users is a lot more profitable than having a million users, which means that if you have a billion users you can afford to do things that the million user system can't- e.g. free webmail and a really good free internet browser, just to name two things picked completely at random and not having any particular company in mind.

The other point is explaining your comment about the "last 15 years": tech's dominance (really, growth's dominance) is really an artifact of zero-lower-bounds interest rates from the 2008 financial crisis. If interest rates are zero (for discounted future cash flow computations) then I am indifferent about a dollar today versus a dollar in 2075. So someone who can argue that they have a 5% chance of being worth a trillion dollars in 2075 is worth a lot (0.05 * 1T=50 billion) when interest rates are zero, but if interest rates are high (or even, honestly, normal- like 2-3%) then that money is discounted heavily and the growth story doesn't matter as much because dollars today are worth a lot more than dollars in 2075. So if interest rates are zero, future growth will dominate the stock market (which was why 'tech' did well) but when interest rates are more normal, different companies can dominate the stock market (where the fundamental valuation of a company is, roughly, the expected value of future cash-flows discounted to the present).

1: Delivered by the internet- physical media distorts this a bit and behaves more like normal retail goods.

2: Exceptions for certain points in the growth curve where some key system falls over and needs to be rapidly replaced, e.g. storage or compute or whatever, but outside of those it's very cheap growth. Plumber company growth is limited by the number of trained plumbers you can hire- you can only have 1 plumber make so many house calls in one day- but software just replicates at zero out to infinity (again modulo some key systems which can't handle the load).

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