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My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

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Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#41

Post by plipt »

vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

I agree with you, however when talking about jobs that are relegated to the physical world like the trades, I dont think it safe to assume that robotics wont also benefit from the AI advancements. Thereby eventually encroaching on those jobs as well.

The following is a recent video from the youtuber "Two Minute Papers" about some researchers (Clemens Schwarke, Victor Klemm et al.) who have created a highly mobile autonomous robot running software trained via simulated reinforcement learning models.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnpm-rJfFjQ

i think it demonstrates the potential for the kind of motile finesse that could be used by robots to complete trades-like tasks.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#42

Post by teddyh »

cedws wrote: post #26
feverzsj wrote: post #16

My AI timelines says next AI winter will come in 10 years, when people find it's a vaporware ... again.

I saw an ad on the London Underground recently from a brewery that included "AI." It's starting to feel a lot like the dotcom/crypto bubble.

— When the market is on everyone’s mind, it’s time to sell.

Joseph P. Kennedy, 1929 (paraphrased)

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#43

Post by vidarh »

matt_heimer wrote: post #30
idopmstuff wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I totally agree with this - it always seems like sort of a weird omission when people talk about AGI doing 95% of work without any discussion of robotics. It seems very obvious that you need bipedal robots (or a lot of different types of robots) to hit that number. Do these AGI predictions assume that we'll have those by the time they hit AGI? Or is the word "knowledge" supposed to be implied before the work "work"?…

I'm not sure that the physical embodiment needs to be robotic in nature. I'm a physically abled home owner and need to repair my hvac or plumbing. Instead of paying for someone in the trades to come out and do the work for me why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? The camera and my voice inputs should allow the AGI to diagnose the issue, order needed parts, and then instr…

Having just done a half-assed plastering job, I will answer that with "because a lot trades needs practiced skills, not just the knowledge".

Sure, it'll be one more thing that eats into bits and pieces of what we need trained labour for, but it won't eliminate it.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#44

Post by pixl97 »

matt_heimer wrote: post #30
idopmstuff wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I totally agree with this - it always seems like sort of a weird omission when people talk about AGI doing 95% of work without any discussion of robotics. It seems very obvious that you need bipedal robots (or a lot of different types of robots) to hit that number. Do these AGI predictions assume that we'll have those by the time they hit AGI? Or is the word "knowledge" supposed to be implied before the work "work"?…

I'm not sure that the physical embodiment needs to be robotic in nature. I'm a physically abled home owner and need to repair my hvac or plumbing. Instead of paying for someone in the trades to come out and do the work for me why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? The camera and my voice inputs should allow the AGI to diagnose the issue, order needed parts, and then instr…

>why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me?

[meme time]

Oh god, oh fuck, we're going full Manna.

[/meme time]

https://marshallbrain.com/manna1

For those have have not read Manna, this is a huge portion of the premise of the story that AI helmets turn us into automatons that allow the AI to further automate our jobs until we are all unemployed and destitute.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#45

Post by jandrese »

vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

Isn't this what Tesla is trying to achieve with Optimus? They were just demonstrating fine grained control using "AI" training to perform human scale tasks. The big idea is that they are human size so they can be slotted in for any task that is currently performed by people without needing any special accommodations.

I personally don't think they'll be economically viable in the foreseeable future, but they do represent a possible bridge to ubiquitous robot labor.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#46

Post by htrp »

vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

> I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing!

A good chunk of the value in the "trades" is in the experience and in the management.

If I can make anyone a painter by giving them a headset [1] and having an "AGI" model tell them exactly how, where, what to paint, how much of the value is the model collecting and how much of it is left for the human being?

[1] https://www.ptc.com/en/resources/augmented-reality/infograph...

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#47

Post by ChatGTP »

echelon wrote: post #29
feverzsj wrote: post #16

My AI timelines says next AI winter will come in 10 years, when people find it's a vaporware ... again.

Disney and Pixar animation are about to get 10,000x - 100,000x cheaper and accessible to nearly anyone. When applied to the correct domains, AI is incredible.

What good does that do though ? It’ll wipe out entire careers so you can have what ? Cheap cartons ?

Not disagreeing, just curious what makes you think this is so incredible ? Did you not have enough to watch before ?

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#48

Post by gumballindie »

vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

> No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing!

I have the strange feeling that it will be those jobs that will be automated further. There is no need for manual workers in construction - you can have bots build houses, and bots painting them inside. Mechanics are like to be phased out by EVs, there's not even a need to manually change wheels and tires. Everything they do can be automated, and will be automated.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#49

Post by ChatGTP »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #34
vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

The more technology can do, the less the workers do, the less workers get paid. Being a servant to people with money is better than being part of their furniture though.

On the other hand , things should get cheaper and more accessible ?

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#50

Post by mechagodzilla »

matt_heimer wrote: post #30
idopmstuff wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I totally agree with this - it always seems like sort of a weird omission when people talk about AGI doing 95% of work without any discussion of robotics. It seems very obvious that you need bipedal robots (or a lot of different types of robots) to hit that number. Do these AGI predictions assume that we'll have those by the time they hit AGI? Or is the word "knowledge" supposed to be implied before the work "work"?…

I'm not sure that the physical embodiment needs to be robotic in nature. I'm a physically abled home owner and need to repair my hvac or plumbing. Instead of paying for someone in the trades to come out and do the work for me why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? The camera and my voice inputs should allow the AGI to diagnose the issue, order needed parts, and then instr…

Even in that very optimistic vision of the future:

* You don't have the tools or supplies on hand (just let that pipe keep flooding your basement until an amazon delivery arrives!), and many of them are expensive and sufficiently specialized that a homeowner might only need them 2-3 times in a lifetime.

* You don't have any training for using the tools if you had them.

* You might not be physically capable of doing the task even if you had the tools and new how to use them, you might easily injure yourself (or others) or make the problem worse, etc.

Think of it like youtube - for most household repair tasks, you can probably already find a youtube video of someone explaining how to do the fix. Do roofers and plumbers and electricians still exist, even though a youtube video can show anyone how to do most of those tasks? AGI glasses seem like they might make less of an impact for most homeowners than youtube has.

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