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Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

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Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#41

Post by ceejayoz »

joemazerino wrote: post #26
bozhark wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TikTok + lazy manufacturers. KIA & Hundai knew about the issue well in advance and made the business decision not to react and fix it. Easiest car to steal in a few generations. People that is

It isn't the car manufacturers job to stop kids from being criminals. TikTok you are right on the money though. Greatest CCP psyweapon ever invented.

Kia and Hyundai were negligent in skipping an immobilizer; that negligence led to those types of cars being targeted. https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/hyundai-kia-campaign-pr...

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#42

Post by crazygringo »

Swizec wrote: post #10
okasaki wrote: post #4

> Why it matters: The findings appear to be at odds with Americans' perception of crime both in their communities and in the rest of the country. Well, there are other crimes than murder?

Speaking as someone who has lived in the downtown area of a dense US city for the past 8 years, US crime stats and perception are weird. Yes I live in a neighborhood with high crime stats. Even relatively high violent crime stats. But it feels pretty safe regardless. Random violent crime is extremely rare. Mostly what you get are violent disputes between people who know each other. You can literally walk by a drug de…

Yup, I live in a similar spot. High homicide rates, but... also a residential neighborhood full of families and tons of community.

The murders aren't from random muggings or store stick-ups or people going crazy in a church or a school. They're from dudes who have a beef with a specific other dude, and it just so happens that there are a lot of beefs.

But if you just live here... none of that affects you. Everybody seems to feel perfectly safe walking down the street, going shopping, going out at night. (It's not like there are drive-by shootings with stray bullets or anything.)

The degree of randomness of crime is an extremely important aspect of crime rates that, unfortunately, doesn't seem to get measured. Or if it is, it isn't publicized or part of the conversation.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#43

Post by ceejayoz »

wang_li wrote: post #40
ceejayoz wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other crimes have been declining dramatically for decades, too. American perception of crime doesn't match the reality; it's a 24/7 cable news phenomenon. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/11/20/facts-abo...

Finding data points from decades ago that is higher then the current data point doesn't invalidate that the recent trend is upwards.

The COVID pandemic is pretty clearly a black swan sort of scenario, and the article indicates its impacts are fading.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#44

Post by thereddaikon »

karaterobot wrote: post #8

> "We're using tools like crime-gun intelligence, the ability to trace the gun and the spent shell casing from a crime scene to identify who's that shooter, how many violent crimes have they been involved with," she said in the interview. I don't think that prevents enough crime to account for the drop, though I would believe it helps catch criminals after the fact. I'm basing this on the assumption that the average…

Every serious look into gun forensics I've read indicates that matching a casing or bullet to a specific gun is pseudo-science.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#45

Post by throw0101b »

Ran across an interesting observation a little while ago that while homicides—deaths—have been dropping, that doesn't necessarily mean that 'the streets' have gotten safer:

> That's how good trauma surgeons are now. They're looking for solutions [to gun deaths] outside the hospital.

> Now, think about the implications of that in a place like Washington, DC. In the last 30 years, the number of homicides in Washington in a typical year has been cut in half. People look at that statistic and say, "Oh, the city's gotten a lot safer." But isn't some part of that decline simply that Eddie Cornwell and Mallory Williams and all the other trauma surgeons of Washington, DC are now saving lives that were once lost?

> A city's murder rate is not a measure of the number of people victimized by potentially lethal violence. No. It's a measure of the number of people victimized by potentially lethal violence minus how good a job doctors do at saving that person's life once they get to the hospital.

* https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/revisionist-history/guns-par...

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pl7c_O_XtfU&t=12m27s [audio-only]

Statistics on non-fatal shootings are not reported on / examined as much:

* https://centerforimprovinginvestigations.org/wp-content/uplo...

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#46

Post by Aerbil313 »

ceejayoz wrote: post #9
okasaki wrote: post #4

> Why it matters: The findings appear to be at odds with Americans' perception of crime both in their communities and in the rest of the country. Well, there are other crimes than murder?

The other crimes have been declining dramatically for decades, too. American perception of crime doesn't match the reality; it's a 24/7 cable news phenomenon. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/11/20/facts-abo...

Cable news are evil. FOMO induced by things you shouldn't be seeing naturally. You wouldn't be saddened by the footage of some crime that happened a thousand miles afar, back in the days before the Industrial Revolution. Is a murder important? Hell yeah, it's an absolutely serious and sad situation, thus the subconscious FOMO if you aren't watching. Did you need to know about it? No, it's entirely artificial that you can even know about some horrendous crime that happened at the other side of the world and negatively impacted by it. You shouldn't be, human mind-body and emotional systems are not designed nor prepared for this. How many murders per month pre-IR people were witnessing, let alone with their own eyes? I don't watch cable TV but my parents do, and I can see the effect.

I'm not even mentioning TV debates which are mostly BS, with all the 'experts' trying to sound important on some topic irrelevant to %99 of the population.

An again, all this is for advertising, the new root of all evil. TBH some amount is for political agendas too.

It's good that young people don't really watch TV anymore. (Not to imply what replaced it - social media - causes any less mental illness [1].)

1: https://www.afterbabel.com/archive?sort=top

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#47

Post by etchalon »

FireBeyond wrote: post #22
etchalon wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's incredibly hard to explain this disconnect to people who haven't lived in high-poverty/high-crime/dense places. Chicago, even the south side, never felt dangerous to me while living there. But here in Texas, people seem to think it's some wild west of violence every day.

Just as there are people who think that Portland (and Seattle) are close to some post apocalyptic wasteland after the BLM protests a few years ago. I've heard non-hyperbolic claims that BLM torched "entire city blocks".

I've got a lot of friends in Portland, and the life they live, and the city described on Fox News, are so vastly different it's almost a comedy.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#49

Post by karaterobot »

ithkuil wrote: post #37
karaterobot wrote: post #8

> "We're using tools like crime-gun intelligence, the ability to trace the gun and the spent shell casing from a crime scene to identify who's that shooter, how many violent crimes have they been involved with," she said in the interview. I don't think that prevents enough crime to account for the drop, though I would believe it helps catch criminals after the fact. I'm basing this on the assumption that the average…

Another possible explanation is that some people commit multiple murders and being caught after a successful murder prevents the subsequent ones

> I'm basing this on the assumption that the average number of homicide incidents per murderer is somewhere around one

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#50

Post by etchalon »

HPsquared wrote: post #38
etchalon wrote: post #13

I tend to treat crime as a trailing indicator of the economy overall. Lower-crime rates correlate with lower unemployment, and vice-versa. Of course, every police department is going to pretend they've developed some novel new crime fighting methods – instead of just realizing that, hey, less poor people means less crime. Homicides are interesting in isolation, because so many of our domestic homicides are gun-and-dr…

It runs both ways, crime can depress economic activity in an area.

Maybe, but it's fairly rare that a person is restricted in finding work in their walkable geographic area.
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