Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter • Hacker News Board

Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter

#41

Post by ubasu » Mon, Apr 23, 2012, 10:05 PM UTC

olalonde wrote: post #37

socialist_coder wrote: post #28

Justin is fundamentally missing what people are saying the bubble is. From my perspective, no one is arguing that high tech and programming won't be more and more important in the future. "Anyone who tells you that you shouldn’t be in tech, or that the current market situation will create an oversupply of people in tech, is doing you a massive disservice." Who is saying this? I don't think anyone is trying to dissuad…

I'm not a big fan of protecting people from themselves. Who are you to tell me I shouldn't be allowed to invest in a startup because I'm too dumb to make that decision for myself? Whether or not you are right about the bubble is besides the point.

It's called information asymmetry. As an individual, you do not have the power to get all the necessary information to make a sound decision, but working through the government - which in a democracy ideally represents you and others like you - you can get that information.

Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter

#42

Post by olalonde » Mon, Apr 23, 2012, 10:12 PM UTC

scarmig wrote: post #39

olalonde wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a big fan of protecting people from themselves. Who are you to tell me I shouldn't be allowed to invest in a startup because I'm too dumb to make that decision for myself? Whether or not you are right about the bubble is besides the point.

Well, aside from well-meaning paternalism... everyone who overextended themselves with a too-large mortgage did it of their own free will and hypothetically were only screwing themselves. But when things go to shit, the effects of a large number of people screwing themselves spill over to a bunch of complete innocents (well, people who are innocent of everything except existing in our contemporary economy).

I agree with your observation but I still disagree with the conclusion that we should protect people from themselves for the simple reason that people do not have a responsibility towards the economy. If half Silicon Valley stops going to work tomorrow, the economy will unquestionably take a massive hit. Should we have a law preventing people from stopping going to work? If Zuckerberg decided not to build Facebook, should he be held accountable for all the jobs he could have created but did not?

Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter

#43

Post by JVIDEL » Mon, Apr 23, 2012, 10:14 PM UTC

The first thing you have to do to understand why bubbles happen is to stop believing everyone in it is being 100% rational.

The reality is that for most investors the vague notion that they might be missing a great opportunity far outweights any well documented evidence that they are walking into a sinkhole.

Many investors from the dotcom bubble simply left the market and new ones took their places. If there's money to be made some people will always be there, it doesn't gets more complex than that.

So basically you shouldn't stay out of tech right now just like you shouldn't stay out of tech in 1998. You should've done that in 2001 when everything started to collapse. Funny that Justin mentions Amazon because that company took a nosedive back then.

Question is, how long we have until the next 2001?

When that happens many people, including "negationists" and wantrepreneurs will GTFO from tech as fast as they can rip the copper wire from their office walls.

Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter

#44

Post by olalonde » Mon, Apr 23, 2012, 10:26 PM UTC

ubasu wrote: post #41

olalonde wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a big fan of protecting people from themselves. Who are you to tell me I shouldn't be allowed to invest in a startup because I'm too dumb to make that decision for myself? Whether or not you are right about the bubble is besides the point.

It's called information asymmetry. As an individual, you do not have the power to get all the necessary information to make a sound decision, but working through the government - which in a democracy ideally represents you and others like you - you can get that information.

I'm not opposed to laws preventing corporations from providing false/misleading information, witholding relevant information, etc. I'm just saying people should be free to make the final judgement of whether or not they want to invest after having been presented with all relevant facts.

Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter

#45

Post by scarmig » Mon, Apr 23, 2012, 10:38 PM UTC

olalonde wrote: post #42

scarmig wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, aside from well-meaning paternalism... everyone who overextended themselves with a too-large mortgage did it of their own free will and hypothetically were only screwing themselves. But when things go to shit, the effects of a large number of people screwing themselves spill over to a bunch of complete innocents (well, people who are innocent of everything except existing in our contemporary economy).

I agree with your observation but I still disagree with the conclusion that we should protect people from themselves for the simple reason that people do not have a responsibility towards the economy . If half Silicon Valley stops going to work tomorrow, the economy will unquestionably take a massive hit. Should we have a law preventing people from stopping going to work? If Zuckerberg decided not to build Facebook,…

In practice for this particular instance, I agree with you on the correct policy position: the amounts of real-world money that would be being put at risk are small compared to the real estate bubble, and the financial nervous centers of our economy are more insulated from this bubble than the one in 2008.

I do think your general principle for appropriate government action is too strong and leads to some questionable results, but that ends up getting too involved in abstract political principles for this particular thread.

Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter

#46

Post by cjmauthor » Mon, Apr 23, 2012, 10:38 PM UTC

I thought I would add some support for the argument of choosing the tech sector as a career. If you look at the statistics it seems that 5 out of the top 10 jobs of 2012 according to this survey is in the tech sector with software development being number 2. And the estimations for the coming years are pretty staggering. Tech is probably not a bad field to be in, lucky me, I think. http://money.usnews.com/careers/best-jobs/rankings/the-25-be...

Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter

#47

Post by greendestiny » Tue, Apr 24, 2012, 12:07 AM UTC

socialist_coder wrote: post #28

Justin is fundamentally missing what people are saying the bubble is. From my perspective, no one is arguing that high tech and programming won't be more and more important in the future. "Anyone who tells you that you shouldn’t be in tech, or that the current market situation will create an oversupply of people in tech, is doing you a massive disservice." Who is saying this? I don't think anyone is trying to dissuad…

From the perspective of the 2000 bubble though, that's exactly what people thought. Pre-crash people thought everything needed to go online, post-crash people thought you couldn't succeed unless you were 'clicks and bricks' but really just bricks was better. Now we're looking at some over-valuations in social companies that will probably burst but people won't be reevaluating whether you can really have a business on the internet or not. And yes the 2000 bubble had a big impact on the careers that kids choose.

Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter

#48

Post by toomuchtodo » Tue, Apr 24, 2012, 12:19 AM UTC

jjb123 wrote: post #11

> Most people aren’t self aware enough to realize what is happening that is making their jobs disappear: a strong trend in software automation to make business processes more efficient. This reminds me of a really helpful salesperson at the Apple store that was really excited/proud to tell me that you can now walk in and purchase an item without ever talking to a salesperson...

Wut. I had NO IDEA you could do this.

off to the Naperville Apple store

Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter

#49

Post by socialist_coder » Tue, Apr 24, 2012, 12:32 AM UTC

moistgorilla wrote: post #36

olalonde wrote: post #29

On the other hand, there might come a time where software becomes so important and pervasive that it won't make sense anymore to call yourself a software engineer or a software company. I'm guessing there was once a time where the next big thing was to become a mathematician. However, mathematics has grown so central to so many fields that very few people nowadays call themselves mathematicians or dream of building m…

I completely agree with this post, soon people are going to open their eyes and programming will be taught from elementary school to high school. Not being able to program will be equivalent to what being illiterate was.

100% agree

My child will be bilingual. English and 10010101001.

Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter

#50

Post by meric » Tue, Apr 24, 2012, 12:35 AM UTC

rpeden wrote: post #19

When I read things like this, I have to wonder if the people saying it are really naive or sheltered enough to believe it: "You want to be in the tech game, because in time it will be the only game in town." Well, no...because tech won't be big enough to employ more than a relatively small percentage of the population. And it won't matter that companies want to pay tech workers to help automate people out of jobs. Be…

http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm