Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

img.haarets.co.il

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 82 posts

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#41

Post by Adverblessly »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #8

There's a new "conspiracy theory" on the block to explain this and other events (I do admittedly find it plausible): It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack, either Israel's previously famous intelligence service was caught completely off guard (despite the warning by Egypt) - or they let it happen, intentionally, as an excuse to raid Gaza as well as improve the po…

Bibi and a few other far right leaders are on record previously saying that Hamas is an asset, since it divides the Palestinians in Gaza from those in Yehuda and Shomron. In addition to that, it is my personal opinion that Bibi also considered them an asset for elections so that he has someone to oppose and can continually promise to "end Hamas" without ever actually doing it.

That said, if this was an intentional move by Bibi, it backfired severely since his support dropped drastically as a result of the attack (and how poorly he continues to handle it). I've heard there's quite a bit of internal opposition in his party in spite of the fact that most politicians there are just Bibi's bootlickers and that without him the party will likely lose a ton of votes.

Given that he is an incredibly gifted politician, it seems unlikely to me that he made the mistake of thinking that an attack will be good for him, so I find the conspiracy theory to be unlikely.

> as an excuse to raid Gaza

And to answer this one specifically, I don't think Bibi wanted an excuse to raid Gaza since it seems to me like what he wants most is just to continue the current status-quo where peace is impossible. It is possible that others in his current far-right extremist government were looking for such an excuse, but no chance that they would actually get to make that decision.

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#42

Post by meroes »

miguelazo wrote: post #24
H8crilA wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Egyptian intelligence knew about it and warned. Moreover there were detailed plans known already about a year earlier: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-h... This is kind of similar, but smaller in scale, to how Ukraine was surprised that there was actually a push on Kyiv from the north with an attempt at decapitating the state. It's one thing to have the intelligence at hand, it's another to…

There was never a plan to decapitate the Ukrainian state. That is utterly absurd when you consider there were Russian intelligence assets in Zelensky’s inner circle for a very long time. Russia could have killed him day 1 if they wanted to (or before). Encircling Kyiv was merely for negotiating pressure. As evidenced by them withdrawing from that position as part of the ceasefire negotiations in Turkey in the Spring…

So they left a strong wartime leader in place for their enemy for their upcoming war? Why? Since you’re so sure about intelligence capabilities, why couldn’t the West have known and taken precautions?

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#43

Post by myth_drannon »

gimdilia wrote: post #16

[flagged]

There are many articles on the subject. It's not about Mossad, but Military Intelligence failure. The bells were ringing, and people were screaming but were simply ignored (because of the organizational culture and "women are panicky"). But of course there's a lot of clarity in hindsight...

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#44

Post by padjo »

hotdogscout wrote: post #39
vkou wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this implying that these kinds of events are politically advantageous to pro-settlement and native-displacement factions in Parliament? Get attacked, retaliate with orders-of-magnitude more force, and drive natives out of their homes and into progressively smaller and more-fragmented reservations?

[flagged]

Irish people are not native to Dublin either, but somehow it’s still our capital and not full of Danish people

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#45

Post by zardo »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #8

There's a new "conspiracy theory" on the block to explain this and other events (I do admittedly find it plausible): It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack, either Israel's previously famous intelligence service was caught completely off guard (despite the warning by Egypt) - or they let it happen, intentionally, as an excuse to raid Gaza as well as improve the po…

There's no way they let the October 7th that actually happened go off on purpose. They didn't need to take that much of a hit to justify invading a Gaza, and it made them look bad.

Which would leave open the possiblity that they "let it happen" thinking the "it" was something much less substantial, but the motive doesn't really make sense to me, because they didn't need to take a hit at all. Just an accusation that Hamas was planning an attack would have been sufficient pretext.

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#46

Post by Scoundreller »

H8crilA wrote: post #10
Invictus0 wrote: post #4

From what I've read, even Hamas' own leaders were unaware of the Oct 7 attack planning. Maybe the Israeli equivalent of the SEC can figure out who placed these trades.

Egyptian intelligence knew about it and warned. Moreover there were detailed plans known already about a year earlier: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-h... This is kind of similar, but smaller in scale, to how Ukraine was surprised that there was actually a push on Kyiv from the north with an attempt at decapitating the state. It's one thing to have the intelligence at hand, it's another to…

What’s the track record of Egypt’s predictions though? Is it like economists predicting 13 of the last 2 recessions?

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#47

Post by Frummy »

Makes me think of when in a trading context I was advised that Russia had moved soldiers close to the borders of Ukraine, some other customers had taken highly leveraged trading positions, and a while later that invasion began, and all the second order effects in the market took place. I don't trade anymore. Curious how some individuals through profit incentive anticipate world events with more agility and foresight than the institutions that lead us

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#48

Post by gpderetta »

miguelazo wrote: post #24
H8crilA wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Egyptian intelligence knew about it and warned. Moreover there were detailed plans known already about a year earlier: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-h... This is kind of similar, but smaller in scale, to how Ukraine was surprised that there was actually a push on Kyiv from the north with an attempt at decapitating the state. It's one thing to have the intelligence at hand, it's another to…

There was never a plan to decapitate the Ukrainian state. That is utterly absurd when you consider there were Russian intelligence assets in Zelensky’s inner circle for a very long time. Russia could have killed him day 1 if they wanted to (or before). Encircling Kyiv was merely for negotiating pressure. As evidenced by them withdrawing from that position as part of the ceasefire negotiations in Turkey in the Spring…

[citation needed]. A decapitation strike doesn't just remove the leader, it needs to remove the whole (or a significant part) of the government. Additionally Russia likely wanted to replace it with a puppet.

It likely wasn't the primary objective, but most likely was an important one.

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#49

Post by [deleted] »

zardo wrote: post #45
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #8

There's a new "conspiracy theory" on the block to explain this and other events (I do admittedly find it plausible): It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack, either Israel's previously famous intelligence service was caught completely off guard (despite the warning by Egypt) - or they let it happen, intentionally, as an excuse to raid Gaza as well as improve the po…

There's no way they let the October 7th that actually happened go off on purpose. They didn't need to take that much of a hit to justify invading a Gaza, and it made them look bad. Which would leave open the possiblity that they "let it happen" thinking the "it" was something much less substantial, but the motive doesn't really make sense to me, because they didn't need to take a hit at all. Just an accusation that H…

[deleted]

Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

#50

Post by nolongerthere »

Considering Qatar (and thus by proxy Hamas and Iran) has access to global markets it’s not clear to me why the assumption here is that these moves came from Israeli leadership and not the more likely source… those planning the slaughter who also wanted to benefit economically and not just in blood.
Post reply on HN