Live data from Hacker News

In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

bigthink.com

41–50 of 86 posts

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#41
post #7
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The moon program was extremely expensive and the return (scientific or otherwise) was rather small in comparison.

I think there’s a few hundred programs that cost more and had fewer returns (and many with negative returns) before we get to man on the moon being a problem.

They might also agree that those projects weren't worth it.

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#42

Note that the first flight was also in 1903. According to the legend I've heard - this was published the day before the Wright Brothers first flight in Dec 17 1903. I didn't see the publication date in the article.

The article states:

>Only nine weeks later, the Wright Brothers achieved manned flight.

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think he was right?

Imagine a moonshot program for cancer(s) at the time. Or a moonshot program for computer chips. It's not so much the money spent as the "we get to recruit all the smartest researchers and new grads for 2 generations to focus on a sole achievement" aspect. Getting to the moon was inspirational, but functionally curing even one type of common cancer or ushering in the information revolution a decade or two ahead of sch…

Ads are our generations moon landing program. The best and the brightest ...

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#44

Note that the first flight was also in 1903. According to the legend I've heard - this was published the day before the Wright Brothers first flight in Dec 17 1903. I didn't see the publication date in the article.

according to the first paragraph of TFA, the first flight was 9 weeks after the 1903 article was published

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#45

What is the point of publishing such an opinion on a newspaper? People often point out how ridiculous these projections turned out to be, but seemingly nobody challenges their reason for existing.

you can say the same thing about most opinion sections today! the nytimes still gives a platform to total fools this way — proliferating diversity of thought I suppose

>you can say the same thing about most opinion sections today!

Who says I amn't

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think he was right?

Imagine a moonshot program for cancer(s) at the time. Or a moonshot program for computer chips. It's not so much the money spent as the "we get to recruit all the smartest researchers and new grads for 2 generations to focus on a sole achievement" aspect. Getting to the moon was inspirational, but functionally curing even one type of common cancer or ushering in the information revolution a decade or two ahead of sch…

Can we just throw money at the issue?

Going to the Moon was an engineering challenge. We knew what was required, we "just" needed to do the necessary work. Some research advancements in material science were needed, but they were incremental. We also got some computer advancements out of the deal too, and sensors.

Even the reflectors placed on the Moon proved to be very useful.

For cancer – they are several diseases with the same name. We don't necessarily know what we have to do to 'cure' them (in many cases, once we figure out what actually causes an illness, treatments become relatively straightforward).

Even if we just focus on one type, would throwing the same amount of money as was spent in the Moon program (or the Manhattan project) be all that's required to 'cure' it? I don't think that's necessarily true. Funding helps, to an extent. But many things in medicine just take time and there's no way around that.

We still have no consensus on what causes Alzheimer's. A lot of research on amyloid plaques that may or may not be a red herring. Once we can know with a high degree of certainty what causes it, treating or preventing should become much more straightforward.

That said, throwing money at any kind of research seems to be beneficial. Be it the Moon, health and even military. We wouldn't be discussing this without military funding decades ago that enabled what eventually became the Internet. Although we, as in humans, have been wasting too many resources in wars.

> ushering in the information revolution a decade or two ahead of schedule would be an order of magnitude more valuable.

That's hindsight.

When coherent light (what we know as lasers) was discovered, it was regarded as a novelty but with zero practical application.

We can fund many types of research simultaneously – and we have to. You can't take a doctor and get them to engineer a rocket, and you can't take a rocket scientist and get them to work on curing diseases.

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#48

Haters gonna hate is such a deep thought, I guess we have a new journalist competing for the pulitzer this year. All in all, thinking about it, would have been better to have a world without flight, since I think it favoured globalisation and shrinking of working class rights, pollution, hypertourism and another kind of pollution, as italian i’d summon inhabitants of venice to see what they think of the americans fly…

Good luck pushing your brand of decelerationism here. Maybe one day we can all return to being peasants farming fields and releasing zero carbon emissions in whatever world you're idealizing.

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think he was right?

Imagine a moonshot program for cancer(s) at the time. Or a moonshot program for computer chips. It's not so much the money spent as the "we get to recruit all the smartest researchers and new grads for 2 generations to focus on a sole achievement" aspect. Getting to the moon was inspirational, but functionally curing even one type of common cancer or ushering in the information revolution a decade or two ahead of sch…

> Or a moonshot program for computer chips.

That sounds scary, because there's a lot of encryption in use that is not quantum resistant.

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#50
post #2

> Many Americans and even astronomers opposed the plan for various reasons. Even former President Eisenhower (who created NASA) said: “Anybody who would spend $40 billion in a race to the moon for national prestige is nuts.” I think he was right.

Apollo helped subsidize and bootstrap the US aerospace and chip manufacturing industries(and other industries) during their early years and as a result probably have had a 100x ROI at least

probably one of the best US government investments ever, especially compared to some of the braindead modern programs we throw away money on

Post reply on HN