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'Sunspot archipelago' 15 times wider than Earth could soon bombard us

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Re: 'Sunspot archipelago' 15 times wider than Earth could soon bombard us

#41

Post by vardump »

LargoLasskhyfv wrote: post #39
vardump wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"... All transformers are blown. ..." Sure, that's possible. Long powerlines are affected. "... All electronics are fried." What? All? How could that happen due to solar activity? My guess is that even the worst event would leave a ton of working electronics. I don't think mostly anything happens to our cars or laptops, for example.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miyake_event

”A Miyake event occurring in modern conditions might have significant impacts on global technological infrastructure such as satellites, telecommunications, and power grids.”

No word about small disconnected devices. I’m guessing they’re going to be fine.

Re: 'Sunspot archipelago' 15 times wider than Earth could soon bombard us

#42

Post by codebolt »

Kye wrote: post #33
GeoAtreides wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rise in global temperature does not coincide with solar activity: 1) Temperature vs Solar irradiance: https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/189/graphic-tempe... 2) Temperature vs Sun activity: http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/solact.htm... 3) Number of sunspots over the year: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/couldnt-sun... Not sure why people think scientists would miss obvio…

Plus: unlike most other measures, we have 400 years of actual observation of the sun's activity. It takes some effort to translate the many ways it's been recorded, and it's not perfect, but the data is there. Climate scientists know the sun had an extended period of low activity through the late 1600s and early 1700s and can form hypotheses. If we go through another, it's not a big shocker. It's an opportunity to te…

Well, 'just science' is easy to say when you're not suffering the direct impact of climate politics. Looks more and more to me like they're trying to hold back the economic development of many of the poorer countries in the world. The models they base this on at least better be correct.

Re: 'Sunspot archipelago' 15 times wider than Earth could soon bombard us

#43

Post by [deleted] »

codebolt wrote: post #42
Kye wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plus: unlike most other measures, we have 400 years of actual observation of the sun's activity. It takes some effort to translate the many ways it's been recorded, and it's not perfect, but the data is there. Climate scientists know the sun had an extended period of low activity through the late 1600s and early 1700s and can form hypotheses. If we go through another, it's not a big shocker. It's an opportunity to te…

Well, 'just science' is easy to say when you're not suffering the direct impact of climate politics. Looks more and more to me like they're trying to hold back the economic development of many of the poorer countries in the world. The models they base this on at least better be correct.

[deleted]

Re: 'Sunspot archipelago' 15 times wider than Earth could soon bombard us

#44

Post by jen729w »

SquibblesRedux wrote: post #40
jen729w wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I should have been clearer: Without transformers, we can’t build new transformers. Think of the supply chain involved. It all runs on electricity. We’ve built ourselves in to a corner where basically nothing is possible without power. So yeah, go get that book from the library. Good luck smelting steel.

"Complete Metal Working Shop From Scrap Series Set (7 INDIVIDUAL BOOKS)" Here is the description of the series: ISBN 1-878087-00-2 The Charcoal Foundry ISBN 1-878087-01-0 The Metal Lathe ISBN 1-878087-02-9 The Metal Shaper ISBN 1-878087-03-7 The Milling Machine ISBN 1-878087-04-5 The Drill Press ISBN 1-878087-05-3 The Dividing Head & Deluxe Accessories ISBN 1-878087-06-1 The Sheet Metal Brake Quote from the site: Bui…

Well that’s handy, but I just checked my local library and the next closest library, and they don’t have copies.

By the way, the ‘next closest library’ to where I live is the National Library of Australia.

Let’s assume they had it. Both buildings are locked and all electronic catalogues are down. How do I know about such a series, and how do I find it once I’ve broken in to the building?

And now how, without the food supply normal to a major city, do I go about building these materials and creating a grid-spec transformer? I’m hungry. All I’m concerned about is people not looting my house.

And once I do build it, what’s this individual transformer going to connect to? The rest of the grid is down.

All of the people who would be repairing the grid in normal circumstances are starving and at home protecting their family. None of them are out in a van fixing transformers.

So, cool books. I’m glad they exist. I can’t see how they help.

Re: 'Sunspot archipelago' 15 times wider than Earth could soon bombard us

#45

Post by ChatGTP »

SquibblesRedux wrote: post #40
jen729w wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I should have been clearer: Without transformers, we can’t build new transformers. Think of the supply chain involved. It all runs on electricity. We’ve built ourselves in to a corner where basically nothing is possible without power. So yeah, go get that book from the library. Good luck smelting steel.

"Complete Metal Working Shop From Scrap Series Set (7 INDIVIDUAL BOOKS)" Here is the description of the series: ISBN 1-878087-00-2 The Charcoal Foundry ISBN 1-878087-01-0 The Metal Lathe ISBN 1-878087-02-9 The Metal Shaper ISBN 1-878087-03-7 The Milling Machine ISBN 1-878087-04-5 The Drill Press ISBN 1-878087-05-3 The Dividing Head & Deluxe Accessories ISBN 1-878087-06-1 The Sheet Metal Brake Quote from the site: Bui…

People are going to be using these books for firewood in this situation.

You’re going to be fighting for survival and learning how to hunt and farm and keep warm. You’re not going to be sitting around learning how to build transformers or metal workshops.

Re: 'Sunspot archipelago' 15 times wider than Earth could soon bombard us

#46

Post by lubujackson »

thriftwy wrote: post #15
jen729w wrote: post #12

This sort of thing has been weighing on my mind of late. The more I think about it, the more I’m convinced that this is why the stars aren’t full of spaceships. And I’m an optimist. But bear with me. We are at the point where we, as a society/species, are utterly dependent on technology. I live in the centre of Canberra, the capital of Australia, and if the power went out tomorrow, I’m not sure how long the food supp…

That anxiety is because you're living in a country which did not see bad stuff happening in it for a long time. Other places (from Europe downhill to places such as Syria and Iraq) had really bad stuff happening, and it is known that people are quite resilient. Not only the humanity does not "kill each other", the cities mostly stay intact.

If you told me 5 years ago a virus would ravage Earth to the point all restaurants and normal businesses close their doors for months, all non-essential flights are cancelled and hospitals get overwhelmed everywhere I would assume the world would completely fall apart.

Yet here we are, with mostly "that sucked for a year" stories.

Re: 'Sunspot archipelago' 15 times wider than Earth could soon bombard us

#47

Post by jlg23 »

jen729w wrote: post #44
SquibblesRedux wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Complete Metal Working Shop From Scrap Series Set (7 INDIVIDUAL BOOKS)" Here is the description of the series: ISBN 1-878087-00-2 The Charcoal Foundry ISBN 1-878087-01-0 The Metal Lathe ISBN 1-878087-02-9 The Metal Shaper ISBN 1-878087-03-7 The Milling Machine ISBN 1-878087-04-5 The Drill Press ISBN 1-878087-05-3 The Dividing Head & Deluxe Accessories ISBN 1-878087-06-1 The Sheet Metal Brake Quote from the site: Bui…

Well that’s handy, but I just checked my local library and the next closest library, and they don’t have copies. By the way, the ‘next closest library’ to where I live is the National Library of Australia. Let’s assume they had it. Both buildings are locked and all electronic catalogues are down. How do I know about such a series, and how do I find it once I’ve broken in to the building? And now how, without the food…

I'd assume the National Library of Australia also maintains a few traditional indices and maybe there are even one or two librarians around to help those who never had to find a book (or books on topics) in a library before computers. I'm lucky enough to have been forced to do this for school 30 years ago.

Re: 'Sunspot archipelago' 15 times wider than Earth could soon bombard us

#48

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

vardump wrote: post #41
LargoLasskhyfv wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miyake_event

”A Miyake event occurring in modern conditions might have significant impacts on global technological infrastructure such as satellites, telecommunications, and power grids.” No word about small disconnected devices. I’m guessing they’re going to be fine.

It doesn't matter if you can't use them for a year. Which is the possible duration of these events, in addition to being several orders of magnitude stronger than the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event

Re: 'Sunspot archipelago' 15 times wider than Earth could soon bombard us

#49

Post by isoprophlex »

codebolt wrote: post #26
Kye wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably under the mistaken impression climate scientists don't know about solar cycles.

Under the impression that a lot of climate scientists are quick to disregard the effect variations in solar activity has on climate. To be clear, I'm not denying the effects of CO2, but it still seems possible that the role of CO2 has been exaggerated to some extent. The rise in global temperatures in the past century has coincided with increases in both CO2 and solar activity. And it's probably not a coincidence tha…

The solar irradiance varies by less than two parts in thousand throughout the cycles, see [1], it goes up and down by about 0.5 W/m2 around it's mean value.

On the other hand, if we hit 500 ppm CO2, that'll contribute about 3.7 W/m2. The Wikipedia page on Radiative Forcing has quantitative data, including the effect of the solar cycle...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#/media/File%3ASo...

Re: 'Sunspot archipelago' 15 times wider than Earth could soon bombard us

#50

Post by Kye »

codebolt wrote: post #42
Kye wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plus: unlike most other measures, we have 400 years of actual observation of the sun's activity. It takes some effort to translate the many ways it's been recorded, and it's not perfect, but the data is there. Climate scientists know the sun had an extended period of low activity through the late 1600s and early 1700s and can form hypotheses. If we go through another, it's not a big shocker. It's an opportunity to te…

Well, 'just science' is easy to say when you're not suffering the direct impact of climate politics. Looks more and more to me like they're trying to hold back the economic development of many of the poorer countries in the world. The models they base this on at least better be correct.

https://www.newyorker.com/cartoon/a16995

“Yes, the planet got destroyed. But for a beautiful moment in time we created a lot of value for shareholders.”

The risk if you're wrong: conflicts over shrinking arable land, resources, and climate refugees fleeing disasters could escalate into a world-ending war. Or regional wars that completely erase all that economic development.

The risk if climate scientists are wrong: we make a cleaner, healthier, and more sustainable world for nothing.

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