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Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

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Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#41

Post by theshrike79 »

KingOfCoders wrote: post #15
epolanski wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think yours is a very blind take. The Japanese auto industry deliberately decided to put the emphasis on hybrid technologies before EVs. - the overwhelming amount of the world does not and will not have infrastructure to support that many EVs for quite some time. Energy-starved countries such as most of Europe bar some like Scotland or Norway are already unable to cope with the current electricity demand. Japan its…

How is Germany "unable to cope with the current electricity demand"? People use solar power to power their EVs here (We have solar power but no car).

Switching from "scary" nuclear to coal isn't the smart move at all.

Solar is intermittent at best and a bunch of your energy is still reliant on natural gas. But it seems that the German government is doing the smart thing and subsidising local solar installations.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#42

Post by ben_bai »

epolanski wrote: post #34
Tade0 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're completely ignoring China in this picture, which is by far the largest market for cars and where EVs already reached 22% market share last year. There's already a price war going on there, so the question isn't how long western manufacturers will be able to produce combustion cars, but will they survive the deluge of competitively priced Chinese EVs. The solar panel market did not and is now almost fully contr…

Just because someone else has a different take on the market it doesn't mean that he's wrong. I didn't ignore China, or US, I stated that on average most cars in the world sold globally will still be ICE-powered for a long time to come due to electricity constraints (and quite high EV costs that aren't gonna fall anytime soon). This is especially true about Japan which the comment was speaking of. > The solar panel m…

> They have low labor cost, insanely good infrastructure and logistics, cheap energy and weak labor rights. You're not gonna outcompete them on manufacturing.

Sorry to bust your bubble but that has slowly been changing. Mexico and India is the new China, or at least they will be very soon.

For years, wages in China were much lower than Mexico's. Now, Mexico's manufacturing labor costs are 20% lower than in China. When adjusted for worker productivity, the gap is even wider. And India is getting there, too.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#43

Post by ben_bai »

epolanski wrote: post #36
KingOfCoders wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is Germany "unable to cope with the current electricity demand"? People use solar power to power their EVs here (We have solar power but no car).

That's a cherry picked stat, isn't it? Your country is also increasing its coal output and the output of energy produced by coal in double digits and out wiping villages such as Lutzerah to create some of the biggest coal mines in the world. Yes, you are energy starved too. Also, how there's no EVs? From all WV brands including Skoda to luxury makers from Mercedes to Porsche, *all* of your automakers have multiple EV…

Also, 30% of new car purchases in 2023 were EVs (in Germany)

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#44

Post by theshrike79 »

scarygliders wrote: post #5
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, look, this isn't complicated. Here's some kind-opinion, kinda-fact points: 1) Tesla is making vehicles with EV drivetrains at cost parity or less than an ICE car (depends on the actual reporting on Tesla's per-car margin accuracy). This number is somewhere around $100/kwhr at the pack level. 2) EV drivetrain cost has been steadily falling at nonlinear rates for a decade, with very much runway. 3) CATL and other b…

You can have all the best and lovely EV tech. ever, but until and unless electricity prices come down, and "filling up" an EV with stored energy is cheaper than filling up an ICE or hybrid vehicle, AND you get the same range in an EV that you can with an ICE vehicle, then EV's - currently - aren't a rational and wise choice for the average consumer. Electricity prices are going through the roof here in the UK, which…

> until and unless electricity prices come down

checking price on my mobile app

My current electricity price is -0.08c/kWh. Yes. That is a negative number. The price has been close to or below zero for a week now.

Dunno how much lower it could go? The only thing missing here is a legal framework that would allow me to charge a local 50-100kWh battery bank with free electricity and sell it for a huge profit when the price goes up.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#45

Post by theshrike79 »

londons_explore wrote: post #22
SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not nearly as easy as removing a catalytic converter. You can walk off with the catalytic converter. But a battery pack can be a quarter of the vehicle's considerable weight. EVs weight more than fossil fuel cars because of this. You're not going to casually walk off or moped away with 1,000 lbs of battery.

The thieves I see have a truck with 50 catalytic converters in the back. They could equally have a truck with 3 EV batteries in the back.

A single man can throw the catalytic converter in the back of the truck. It can also be sawed off with a 50€ battery angle grinder in a few minutes.

A single man cannot throw a 500kg battery bank on the truck. The battery bank in many EVs is a structural part of the car and very well protected from the underside for a reason.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#46

Post by rcxdude »

scarygliders wrote: post #5
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, look, this isn't complicated. Here's some kind-opinion, kinda-fact points: 1) Tesla is making vehicles with EV drivetrains at cost parity or less than an ICE car (depends on the actual reporting on Tesla's per-car margin accuracy). This number is somewhere around $100/kwhr at the pack level. 2) EV drivetrain cost has been steadily falling at nonlinear rates for a decade, with very much runway. 3) CATL and other b…

You can have all the best and lovely EV tech. ever, but until and unless electricity prices come down, and "filling up" an EV with stored energy is cheaper than filling up an ICE or hybrid vehicle, AND you get the same range in an EV that you can with an ICE vehicle, then EV's - currently - aren't a rational and wise choice for the average consumer. Electricity prices are going through the roof here in the UK, which…

What? EVs are still way cheaper to run than petrol. Apart from the electricity being cheaper (substantially so, if you have any clue and charge when it's cheap), they also require much less maintenance. The batteries are lasting a lot longer than anyone expected as well. One of the reasons battery recycling isn't really happening yet is there aren't enough batteries from the first few generations of EVs that are in a state where they need recycling. The main blocker with EVs has been the up-front cost, which is still high compared to ICE, but rapidly falling as mentioned above. Charging speeds and range are one of those things which people worry about when they buy an EV and then don't worry about after they buy and drive one: even with the fairly barebones charging infrastructure that exists now it's not actually a big practical problem.

And if I were around for a carrington event, I'd much rather have a big EV pack that can run my house for a while than an ICE, especially since I could recharge it with solar. The renewable transition, with a big shift to more local generation, is even more resiliant to a disruption of the power grid, and that resiliance is further enabled by EVs.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#47

Post by londons_explore »

cf141q5325 wrote: post #30
londons_explore wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> no catalytic converters to steal.. I predict that within 10 years gangs will start stealing EV batteries. With a grinder, trolley and 5 minutes you could remove one from a car. Then take it away and connect it to the grid as stationary storage and earn a few thousand dollars a year in balancing fees.

I am honesty surprised to not already see massive theft with bike and scooter batteries.

Having been to car boot sales and seeing people selling 50 damaged (ie. ripped out) ebike batteries at once, I can tell you they are actively traded...

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#48

Post by FirmwareBurner »

oblio wrote: post #40
FirmwareBurner wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, only the consumer facing operations of those brands have been wiped out, same as with Motorola, but their enterprise/network-infrastructure businesses from Nokia, Siemens, Ericsson, Alcatel still exists, and Sagem is still in the military business (as part of Thales). However, the big issue is that those companies don't see much growth or sensible profit margins anymore compared to what US tech companies…

> only the consumer facing operations of those brands have been wiped out So, like 90% of the income and profits for a hardware company?

Pretty much yes.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#49

Post by rcxdude »

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #6
scarygliders wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can have all the best and lovely EV tech. ever, but until and unless electricity prices come down, and "filling up" an EV with stored energy is cheaper than filling up an ICE or hybrid vehicle, AND you get the same range in an EV that you can with an ICE vehicle, then EV's - currently - aren't a rational and wise choice for the average consumer. Electricity prices are going through the roof here in the UK, which…

There's no fundamental reason why electricity prices be rising. Solar and wind have been dropping at nonlinear rates for a decade,and likely will for another decade. They are already the cheapest power sources by LCOE than even natural gas turbine. I don't live in the UK, but in the US the electrical cost of recharging an electric car was far less than fueling a gas car even before the current rise in gas prices. Lon…

> Every modern car is filled to the brim of computers and Carrington events will likely wipe out all of them as well

This isn't particularly likely. Large-scale structures like power grids are much more susceptable to issues from such an event: smaller electronics are unlikely to be damaged.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#50

Post by FirmwareBurner »

scns wrote: post #31
oblio wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion what will happen is old fashioned protectionism. Western governments are still kind of dumb but they're wisening up. The US for example does it through incentives: if the car AND the batteries have been built in the US, the car is cheaper. Just the car was built in the US? Lower subsidy, more expensive car. Nothing built in the US? 0 subsidy, much more expensive car. The EU will probably do the same wit…

Nokias phone business was destroyed by that manager they brought in from Microsoft. He held a speech where he called the company "a burning platform" on which they are standing. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/noki...

Nokia were already on a path of self-destruction before Elop was hired. Also, nobody forced them to hire Stephen Elop, it was their decision to hire someone totally unfit. As a company you bear the consequences of who you appoint as your CEO.
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