Live data from Hacker News

Is the end of AIDS in sight?

economist.com

41–50 of 170 posts

Re: Is the end of AIDS in sight?

#41
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aids is definitely the strongest sexually transmitted virus out there. But don't you think that there will always be sexually transmitted diseases associated with promiscuity? Not to say that aids is only transmitted through promiscuity, but superspreading is highly relevant. It is my understanding that gay people have more sex partners than than straight people, so it's likely that these diseases will disproportiona…

It's not the 90s anymore. In the developed world HIV primarily and disproportionately effects IV drug users, not gay men. In the developing world, it has nothing to do with promiscuity but lack of education and access to preventative measures like condoms and PrEP.

[deleted]

Re: Is the end of AIDS in sight?

#42
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aids is definitely the strongest sexually transmitted virus out there. But don't you think that there will always be sexually transmitted diseases associated with promiscuity? Not to say that aids is only transmitted through promiscuity, but superspreading is highly relevant. It is my understanding that gay people have more sex partners than than straight people, so it's likely that these diseases will disproportiona…

It's not the 90s anymore. In the developed world HIV primarily and disproportionately effects IV drug users, not gay men. In the developing world, it has nothing to do with promiscuity but lack of education and access to preventative measures like condoms and PrEP.

This is not true. In 2018 in the US, 66% of new HIV diagnoses were in the transmission category of male-to-male sexual contact:

https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/library/reports/hiv-surveillance/vol...

Re: Is the end of AIDS in sight?

#43
post #33

As an older millennial, it’s interesting to me observe the difference with which HIV/AIDS and COVID has been treated. While untreated HIV infection is more lethal than COVID, COVID has killed more people in the past 4 years than HIV/AIDS did in the past 40+. My childhood was filled with warnings and media depicting the tragedy of HIV/AIDS, the surrounding bigotry, and the history of this pandemic still has some cache…

> My childhood was filled with warnings and media depicting the tragedy of HIV/AIDS, the surrounding bigotry, and the history of this pandemic still has some cache ... but for years, the HIV/AIDS crisis _was_ ignored, or even laughed at by critical people in government. When you say your childhood was filled with warnings about the tragedy of HIV/AIDS, I think you must be talking about the early 90s, a decade after t…

While this is correct, my point was that the experience of the HIV/AIDS seemingly had no impact on our handling of COVID. But Reagan/AIDS, Trump/COVID, is a pretty bleak manifestation of “first as tragedy, then as a farce.”

Re: Is the end of AIDS in sight?

#44
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aids is definitely the strongest sexually transmitted virus out there. But don't you think that there will always be sexually transmitted diseases associated with promiscuity? Not to say that aids is only transmitted through promiscuity, but superspreading is highly relevant. It is my understanding that gay people have more sex partners than than straight people, so it's likely that these diseases will disproportiona…

It's not the 90s anymore. In the developed world HIV primarily and disproportionately effects IV drug users, not gay men. In the developing world, it has nothing to do with promiscuity but lack of education and access to preventative measures like condoms and PrEP.

No. New HIV diagnoses in the US are 67% male-to-male sexual contact, 22% heterosexual contact, and 7% injection drug use. (BTW, I have no agenda here except accurate statistics.)

From https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/basics/statistics.html

Re: Is the end of AIDS in sight?

#45
post #31

As a gay man well into middle age, whenever I get somewhat depressed about the state of human affairs, I think about the incredible improvements in AIDS treatment and prevention and I feel a little better. It's hard for people who didn't live through it to really understand what a terrifying time the 80s and 90s were. First off, the general message of sexual education was pretty much "If you have sex, it's probably g…

Aids is definitely the strongest sexually transmitted virus out there. But don't you think that there will always be sexually transmitted diseases associated with promiscuity? Not to say that aids is only transmitted through promiscuity, but superspreading is highly relevant. It is my understanding that gay people have more sex partners than than straight people, so it's likely that these diseases will disproportiona…

The point I try to get across is to separate "promiscuity is inherently bad" from "sex can have serious negative consequences that you should appropriately plan for depending on your risk tolerance."

Another way to think of it: it's also highly likely that if you go to a crowded event that there are tons of diseases you can expose yourself to. Pre-COVID, people used to talk about getting "SXSW flu", e.g. with so many crowded events at SXSW it was nearly impossible to avoid getting sick. Importantly, at some times (obviously when there was a high prevalence of COVID), I think this risk is too great and crowds should be avoided. At other times, though, I think it's utterly reasonable to think that the risk of a cold or flu is worth it to go to a bunch of fun concerts. Nobody ever talks about "You know, there will always be a ton of dangerous diseases associated with concert-going, so you should always avoid them."

So when it comes to sex, I find it totally reasonable to adjust your behavior based on the risk at the time. Currently, e.g. for a gay man on PrEP, lets look at potential risks:

1. HIV risk is extremely low for those who adhere to PrEP.

2. Most bacterial infections can be cured straightforwardly with antibiotics.

3. The biggest risks are then (a) lifetime viral diseases, primarily Herpes, and (b) at this point, multi-drug resistant gonorrhea.

Thus, I think it's important to be aware of #3 and to take precautions, again relevant to your risk level, accordingly. What I don't think makes sense is to say "But you never know what could spring up!" That's true, but if you look at the recent monkeypox outbreak, I think a lot of people had the right approach: when the outbreak was publicized, many people (a) stopped or reduced their number of sexual partners and then (b) got vaccinated as quickly as possible.

The primary point I'm making is to disentangle the real risks associated with sex (and to treat them dispassionately) from the the moralizing around "you're a dirty whore if you have sex a lot."

Re: Is the end of AIDS in sight?

#46
post #31

As a gay man well into middle age, whenever I get somewhat depressed about the state of human affairs, I think about the incredible improvements in AIDS treatment and prevention and I feel a little better. It's hard for people who didn't live through it to really understand what a terrifying time the 80s and 90s were. First off, the general message of sexual education was pretty much "If you have sex, it's probably g…

Aids is definitely the strongest sexually transmitted virus out there. But don't you think that there will always be sexually transmitted diseases associated with promiscuity? Not to say that aids is only transmitted through promiscuity, but superspreading is highly relevant. It is my understanding that gay people have more sex partners than than straight people, so it's likely that these diseases will disproportiona…

Promiscuity does not propagate sexually transmitted diseases. You are working off of a false stereotype which has limited the capacity of your rational thought, and as a result, you imagine a world which does not exist, and propose solutions which will not work. This is a common problem with HN people. They come up with this one idea that kind-of makes sense, and then stop thinking, and shape their whole thought process around this false premise.

Did you take a second to google this idea you had to see if it made sense? No; because if you had, you'd have found that HIV is spread by blood, semen, pre-seminal fluid, rectal fluids, vaginal fluids, breast milk. People who inject hormones, silicone, steroids, and drugs, can get or transmit HIV by sharing needles, syringes, or other injection equipment. It can be spread through pregnancy or stepping on an infected needle at the beach. It's often spread by not using protection during sex. And straight and gay people both get it.

Gay people do not have more sex partners than straight people. Promiscuous people do have more partners than non-promiscuous people. Gay, straight, bi, queer, etc, can all be promiscuous, just like they can all also be monogamous or even asexual. You may not like that de-simplification, but it exposes the flaw in this notion that gay people are sluts and sluts get STDs. It just doesn't work that way. Safe sex, even if you fuck a lot of people, makes you much less likely to get an STD than if you only occasionally had sex and never use protection. In countries with limited access to safe sex, all people across all demographics contract it. It's not just poor Africans and gay men, despite that being the unfortunately common misconception.

Re: Is the end of AIDS in sight?

#47
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aids is definitely the strongest sexually transmitted virus out there. But don't you think that there will always be sexually transmitted diseases associated with promiscuity? Not to say that aids is only transmitted through promiscuity, but superspreading is highly relevant. It is my understanding that gay people have more sex partners than than straight people, so it's likely that these diseases will disproportiona…

It's not the 90s anymore. In the developed world HIV primarily and disproportionately effects IV drug users, not gay men. In the developing world, it has nothing to do with promiscuity but lack of education and access to preventative measures like condoms and PrEP.

According to [0] in 2020, MSM accounted for 71% of new HIV diagnoses, while people who inject drugs (PWID) accounted for 7% of new HIV infections. AFAIK similar stats are also for western and central Europe. These are population-level stats, not relative risks, but If we disregard PWID and scale to population size, MSM are still one to two orders of magnitude more at risk than non-MSM, non-PWID population, so they are clearly disproportionately affected.

[0] https://www.hiv.gov/hiv-basics/overview/data-and-trends/stat...

Re: Is the end of AIDS in sight?

#48
post #31

As a gay man well into middle age, whenever I get somewhat depressed about the state of human affairs, I think about the incredible improvements in AIDS treatment and prevention and I feel a little better. It's hard for people who didn't live through it to really understand what a terrifying time the 80s and 90s were. First off, the general message of sexual education was pretty much "If you have sex, it's probably g…

Aids is definitely the strongest sexually transmitted virus out there. But don't you think that there will always be sexually transmitted diseases associated with promiscuity? Not to say that aids is only transmitted through promiscuity, but superspreading is highly relevant. It is my understanding that gay people have more sex partners than than straight people, so it's likely that these diseases will disproportiona…

As someone living promiscuously, I'd say it's a correlation.

Some factors that lead people to a promiscuous livestyle also lead them to high risk behaviours, probably because they see promiscuous sexual behaviour also as risky and, in turn, desirable.

I met many that would frown upon condoms, but I also met many that would see them as no big deal.

I for one would count myself as risk averse, and got to that lifestyle through other motivations, and in turn, always ensured to stay safe.

Re: Is the end of AIDS in sight?

#49
post #31

As a gay man well into middle age, whenever I get somewhat depressed about the state of human affairs, I think about the incredible improvements in AIDS treatment and prevention and I feel a little better. It's hard for people who didn't live through it to really understand what a terrifying time the 80s and 90s were. First off, the general message of sexual education was pretty much "If you have sex, it's probably g…

Aids is definitely the strongest sexually transmitted virus out there. But don't you think that there will always be sexually transmitted diseases associated with promiscuity? Not to say that aids is only transmitted through promiscuity, but superspreading is highly relevant. It is my understanding that gay people have more sex partners than than straight people, so it's likely that these diseases will disproportiona…

>I think that limiting amount of partners is a vital part to combating sexually transmitted diseases

It's much more important to have safe sex. Condoms and PrEP work.

Every thread on HN about HIV/AIDS seems to attract at least one person who feels obliged to say something about how promiscuous gay people are. I don't think these comments often come from a good place. (For example, you have previously made a rather insensitive joke about 'pozzing' on this site.)

Re: Is the end of AIDS in sight?

#50
post #6

"Is the End of Aids in Sight?" Short answer - no. Even if they achieve their ambitious plan, 5% is still a large number. Look at how hard it has been to eradicate the last of polio, and that has a lifelong vaccine.

It's also a self-balancing system. As HIV becomes rarer, fewer people will be concerned about it, and therefore fewer will bother taking Prep daily. In turn, HIV becomes more infectious, and more people contract it. It will probably stabilize with about 0.4% of humans being infected. Lots of things affect about 0.4% of people, because that's rare enough that most people don't have any friend or colleague affected, an…

IMO Prep has raised the risk of HIV by giving people a false sense of security.
Post reply on HN