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Starlink quietly lost over $250M in burned satellites this summer

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Re: Starlink quietly lost over $250M in burned satellites this summer

#41
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

5200 tonnes of micrometeorites hit the earth each year. Star link isn’t going to make a difference. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antarctic-study-s...

With 22.8 tonnes per Falcon 9 launch, and 50 of those per year? That's 1140 tonnes /year of new debris in the upper atmosphere, a 21% increase. I'd say that is quite a significant change.

Almost none of it hits the earth. They burn up in the atmosphere.

Re: Starlink quietly lost over $250M in burned satellites this summer

#42
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until all those sats re-enter, burn up and pollute the upper atmosphere

5200 tonnes of micrometeorites hit the earth each year. Star link isn’t going to make a difference. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antarctic-study-s...

"I'm commuting every day to work with my private jet. 5200 tonnes of micrometeorites hit the earth each year, so my action isn’t going to make a difference."

See how your argument is wrong ?

Re: Starlink quietly lost over $250M in burned satellites this summer

#43
post #7
post #3

Lost $250M using the advertised launch price of $67M for Falcon 9 , which of course is way higher than what it actually costs SpaceX.

The fuel costs about half a million. Beyond that it's mostly people's times and materials they have stockpiled for economies of scale. I would guess the lost satellites cost a bit more to manufacture that to launch in a reused Falcon 9.

The fairings alone add another million. The whole upper stage is not re-used at all.

Re: Starlink quietly lost over $250M in burned satellites this summer

#44
post #6

Lost 200 but launched 345, almost all of which are the latest upgraded version. The satellites are designed to last 5 years (the lifetime is limited by propellant because of atmospheric drag at their low altitude) and the first batches were launched 4 years ago now. As the constellation matures they will be de-orbiting satellites about as fast as they launch them. Seems to me like the long term viability of Starlink…

What's not clear from the article is whether the ones lost were old ones or newer ones.

If they're losing ones that were close to their max. life anyway that's possibly no great loss, however if they were newer satellites on top of expected attrition that's more of a concern.

Re: Starlink quietly lost over $250M in burned satellites this summer

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do solar flares burn satellites? I thought they just mess up the ionosphere and inhibit communication.

Solar radiation pressure is a non-negligible perturbation to an orbit, especially during solar weather events.

Indeed, if you don't have enough delta V to maintain your altitude due to atmospheric drag, increased by solar flares. They've lost them before due to this, an entire batch.

Re: Starlink quietly lost over $250M in burned satellites this summer

#47
post #6

Lost 200 but launched 345, almost all of which are the latest upgraded version. The satellites are designed to last 5 years (the lifetime is limited by propellant because of atmospheric drag at their low altitude) and the first batches were launched 4 years ago now. As the constellation matures they will be de-orbiting satellites about as fast as they launch them. Seems to me like the long term viability of Starlink…

> Seems to me like the long term viability of Starlink (if it's not already profitable) will be assured if Starship meets its goals. They'll be able to launch way more satellites at once, for less per launch, and with faster turnaround.

This is just wishful thinking without any data backing it up.

Re: Starlink quietly lost over $250M in burned satellites this summer

#48
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With 22.8 tonnes per Falcon 9 launch, and 50 of those per year? That's 1140 tonnes /year of new debris in the upper atmosphere, a 21% increase. I'd say that is quite a significant change.

Almost none of it hits the earth. They burn up in the atmosphere.

"Burn up" is just "into small pieces". The atoms don't magically disappear.

Re: Starlink quietly lost over $250M in burned satellites this summer

#49
post #6

Lost 200 but launched 345, almost all of which are the latest upgraded version. The satellites are designed to last 5 years (the lifetime is limited by propellant because of atmospheric drag at their low altitude) and the first batches were launched 4 years ago now. As the constellation matures they will be de-orbiting satellites about as fast as they launch them. Seems to me like the long term viability of Starlink…

> Seems to me like the long term viability of Starlink (if it's not already profitable) will be assured if Starship meets its goals. They'll be able to launch way more satellites at once, for less per launch, and with faster turnaround. This is just wishful thinking without any data backing it up.

Starship is substantially bigger than falcon 9, with significant more mass to orbit capability. And runs on a cheaper propellant. Also Elon has publicly stated starlink s long term viability requires starship.

Which data are you looking for?

Re: Starlink quietly lost over $250M in burned satellites this summer

#50
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

5200 tonnes of micrometeorites hit the earth each year. Star link isn’t going to make a difference. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antarctic-study-s...

With 22.8 tonnes per Falcon 9 launch, and 50 of those per year? That's 1140 tonnes /year of new debris in the upper atmosphere, a 21% increase. I'd say that is quite a significant change.

So in ~5 years they've launched 5113 satellites[1]: 2 * 400 kg + 60 * 227 kg + 1665 * 260 kg + 2987 * ~300 kg + 399 * 800 kg = 1663 metric tons

So if they all burned up today it would be around a 6% yearly increase, globally? (1663 / 5200 * 5). And that's probably the most forgiving estimate I could come up with, I think your ~20% number is more accurate for future projection purposes given most of the mass was launched in a much shorter timespan.

Then the real question is what effect does space dust have on the earth's atmosphere (if any).

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_Starlink_...

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