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Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

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Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#41

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

kkielhofner wrote: post #36

I'd like to say politics could be avoided on this but not knowing anything about the science, historical stats, etc I've always had a simple nagging question on this issue that hopefully someone can help me understand. Elementary school science classes teach basic cause and effect. My question is: How is it possible the planet can be billions of years old, then all of a sudden we discover fossil fuels in the past few…

No one can because it's clearly not true.

The only people arguing it isn't true are the various think tanks, foundations, coalitions, online PR bots, and the rest funded by the fossil fuel industry - working to persuade those who don't understand the issue, but are sure their opinion is very important.

Atmospheric CO2 science has been researched since the 19th century.

In the 70s Exxon/Mobil had its own climate scientists making shockingly accurate predictions of what would happen.

The IPCC climate change models - produced from 1990 onwards - have usually been conservative.

That is the objective reality. Everything else is spin, FUD, and noise.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/01/harvard-led-a...

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#42

Post by jfengel »

NotYourLawyer wrote: post #30

> On July 3, the planet sweltered as the average global temperature reached 17.01° Celsius (62.62° Fahrenheit), the highest ever recorded, according to data from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction. That surpassed the previous record of 16.92° C (62.46° F) from August 2016. I am extremely curious about the error bars on these numbers. Are we really measuring the temperature in enough places around…

The raw data includes satellite measurements, which cover the entire globe. It's calibrated against ground-based weather stations.

The raw data is available at:

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/

Putting all that together into a single temperature requires a model. The error analysis of the model is on their web site. There's certainly more than enough data to justify four significant figures.

(The weird part: the authors of the report are both prominent climate change deniers. One says that the problems are real but not man-made; the other says that the problems are real and man-made but not actually a problem. They are the guys who run the satellite and integrate the data.)

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/June/GTR_202306JUN_1....

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#43

Post by majesticglue »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #41
kkielhofner wrote: post #36

I'd like to say politics could be avoided on this but not knowing anything about the science, historical stats, etc I've always had a simple nagging question on this issue that hopefully someone can help me understand. Elementary school science classes teach basic cause and effect. My question is: How is it possible the planet can be billions of years old, then all of a sudden we discover fossil fuels in the past few…

No one can because it's clearly not true. The only people arguing it isn't true are the various think tanks, foundations, coalitions, online PR bots, and the rest funded by the fossil fuel industry - working to persuade those who don't understand the issue, but are sure their opinion is very important. Atmospheric CO2 science has been researched since the 19th century. In the 70s Exxon/Mobil had its own climate scien…

those think tanks really did a number. the climate denialists, have made moving goal of going from denial to climate change is not man made.

The amount of americans who can't stand that fact that they were wrong on the matter is incredible.

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#45

Post by zackees »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #41
kkielhofner wrote: post #36

I'd like to say politics could be avoided on this but not knowing anything about the science, historical stats, etc I've always had a simple nagging question on this issue that hopefully someone can help me understand. Elementary school science classes teach basic cause and effect. My question is: How is it possible the planet can be billions of years old, then all of a sudden we discover fossil fuels in the past few…

No one can because it's clearly not true. The only people arguing it isn't true are the various think tanks, foundations, coalitions, online PR bots, and the rest funded by the fossil fuel industry - working to persuade those who don't understand the issue, but are sure their opinion is very important. Atmospheric CO2 science has been researched since the 19th century. In the 70s Exxon/Mobil had its own climate scien…

[dead]

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#46

Post by terminatornet »

talldatethrow wrote: post #33
SentinelLdnma wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we'll just all become #VanLife nomads and everything will be fine.

There is a hotel in Death Valley. People stay there when it's 125. If your home town gets 3 degrees hotter, I think you'll figure it out.

looking forward to all of the crops and livestock i need to stay alive figuring it out!

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#47

Post by ben_w »

cpr wrote: post #44

A global temperature average is utterly meaningless. https://off-guardian.org/2023/07/12/reality-check-no-we-didn...

That reads like a rant by someone with an axe to grind, and not just because they put scare quotes around the word "pandemic" in a list of other things they don't believe.

Hint: when you're confidently a degree above the temperature range for 100 to 0.05 kya, you don't need to establish two decimal points in that period to say you're exceeding it, only in the recent period where you're closer (which in this case is entirely in the period with global satellite-based temperature data).

I shouldn't have even bothered skim-reading given the starting point of trying to argue that "average temperature" is meaningless, given that temperature is literally only a thing at the scale of averages.

But then, I have actually used satellite records of global surface temperature, so of course I'd be annoyed at a random blogger who thinks this is done today with a bunch of weather stations.

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#48

Post by 542354234235 »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #31
barbazoo wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Our planet’s seas have been warming for decades. The most recent decade has been the sea surface’s hottest since at least the 1800s.

Over the last 500M years, the world has been hotter than it is today for ~400M of those years: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-hotte... And for the majority of that time, it has been MUCH hotter.

Exactly. People keep saying that we need to stop climate change to save the planet. The planet does not care and will be just fine. We need to stop climate change to save ourselves.

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#49

Post by ben_w »

zackees wrote: post #45
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one can because it's clearly not true. The only people arguing it isn't true are the various think tanks, foundations, coalitions, online PR bots, and the rest funded by the fossil fuel industry - working to persuade those who don't understand the issue, but are sure their opinion is very important. Atmospheric CO2 science has been researched since the 19th century. In the 70s Exxon/Mobil had its own climate scien…

[dead]

Why are weather stations even still a meme in these discussions?

I used satellite surface temperature data nearly 20 years ago, it wasn't novel even then.

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#50

Post by ben_w »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #31
barbazoo wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Our planet’s seas have been warming for decades. The most recent decade has been the sea surface’s hottest since at least the 1800s.

Over the last 500M years, the world has been hotter than it is today for ~400M of those years: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-hotte... And for the majority of that time, it has been MUCH hotter.

In the meanwhile, Pangea formed and split, and trees came into existence.
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