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Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

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Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#41

Post by jussij »

pc_edwin wrote: post #9
rixrax wrote: post #4

Will current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.

I've had the exact thought, it looks as if we are further descending into apocalyptic territory. You have people capable of extreme destruction being cornered into an existential state, leaving them with very little rational options. This is when the irrational options starts appearing very rational.. True or not, what if this appears like a western backed coup to Putin and his inner circle. The kind of retaliations…

I'm not sure the Kremlin is full of irrational individuals ready see their country totally annihilated. I suspect the Kremlin is full of self-serving individuals determined to look after their own self-interest. They'll be happy to see Putin hang on, provided of course his success aligns with their success. But if their interests could be better served supporting someone else, they will quickly flip allegiances.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#42

Post by webmobdev »

It was inevitable - this is what happens when you allow private armies as a business. Nearly a century ago, when the British government decided to take control of a private army the British empire ultimately collapsed because of the backlash from the corporates who ran it. Putin is right to act swiftly and harshly against this kind of behaviour before they become an actual threat to the nation - Mercenaries, unlike national armies, tend to prioritise money and power. (In fact, the harsh action against them seems to suggest that is exactly how the Russians are looking at it - that this group has been paid to rebel).

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#43

Post by krona »

logicchains wrote: post #2

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

Because its a staged rebellion to end the war while saving the face of the current leadership, and hopefully avoid civil war.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#44

Post by jcrites »

dave4420 wrote: post #36
logicchains wrote: post #2

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

Personally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now (e.g. the Kremlin, state tv, military depots, Putin / defence minister). Or been killed/arrested himself. This feels more like a civil war. It might not last long of course. We’ll see.

Wagner Group [1] is a mercenary company, by the way, named after German composer Richard Wagner [1]. Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin [2] is reportedly the founder and owner.

(Wagner is not a person. Or am I misreading: who does "himself" refer to?)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Wagner

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#45

Post by watwut »

lloydatkinson wrote: post #13
exizt88 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is false. The Wagner column is 500 kms away from Moscow.

Hard to say what the videos in Moscow are of then if that’s the case.

Not Wagner. They are preparation - response of Russian security services to potential threat.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#46

Post by [deleted] »

PartiallyTyped wrote: post #29
TekMol wrote: post #12

What is the state of decentralized betting platforms where people can place crypto on their predictions? Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions? Everybody with expertise or inside knowledge who sees the probabilities are off would rush in, place bets and "correct" the probabilities while making a profit.

As of 11:05 cest, 2023-06-24, manifold thinks Russia will curb wagner group, and reaching moscow is at 10%. It id considered a serious attempt (95%). Expect a civil war by July 14 (70%).

[deleted]

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#47

Post by autoexec »

rixrax wrote: post #4

Will current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.

Would the new regime resort to the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine or anyone else?

As unpredictable and irrational as he's become, there's some comfort in Putin's track record of staying off the button. I really hope these events don't cause him to start getting YOLOy

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#48

Post by consumer451 »

Ed Nash is a military analyst who has provided factual information in the past. This video includes a translated statement from the leader of Wagner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIY3OfSU1VY

Here is a Russian anti-war streamer. This is a much longer and less formal video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIn41Gl6pVU

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#49

Post by rwmj »

rpadovani wrote: post #39

I am curious on how this will reflect on the Ukraine invasion: as far as I understand, Wagner was a huge source of soldiers on the front lines. I am sure this coup, however it will ends, is a major source of distraction from the war. Meanwhile, Ukraine is pushing east: will they be able to use this coup to liberate some territories?

Surely at least part of the regular Russian army will have to be pulled back to defend Moscow.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#50

Post by mynameishere »

rixrax wrote: post #4

Will current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.

They are more likely to nuke the people backing Prigozhin rather than anything in Russia itself.
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