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North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

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Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#41

Post by belter »

SiempreViernes wrote: post #38
lettergram wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I personally see very little risk from North Korea. Put simply, they know they’ll be destroyed if they lash out. They just don’t want to be invaded and deposed. I wouldn’t doubt once they get their ICBM program up if they start improving living standards. They can then adjust their GDP allocation, and reduce their investment in their military. To be clear, completely think their government is beyond horrible. Do not…

"Fun" fact: both South Korea and North Korea plan on being the first to strike the other in case of a war. I'm sure you can see how that would make them more prone to take the risk. It's also not enough to have ICBMs, they have already credibly tested those years ago, they want so many ICBMs that the US feels threatened by it (this is what deterrence means in practice), but not so many the US decides it has to do any…

The distance between Pyongyang and Seoul is about 190 Km (120 Miles). Fancy a Nuclear War?

Edit: Just to clarify...I mean the distance between both is so short, a Nuclear War is absurd. There is no way to Nuke one country, without making your own country a radiation fallout zone.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#43

Post by cmilton »

SiempreViernes wrote: post #38
lettergram wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I personally see very little risk from North Korea. Put simply, they know they’ll be destroyed if they lash out. They just don’t want to be invaded and deposed. I wouldn’t doubt once they get their ICBM program up if they start improving living standards. They can then adjust their GDP allocation, and reduce their investment in their military. To be clear, completely think their government is beyond horrible. Do not…

"Fun" fact: both South Korea and North Korea plan on being the first to strike the other in case of a war. I'm sure you can see how that would make them more prone to take the risk. It's also not enough to have ICBMs, they have already credibly tested those years ago, they want so many ICBMs that the US feels threatened by it (this is what deterrence means in practice), but not so many the US decides it has to do any…

Do you have a source for the "fun" fact? What circumstances would ignite a war outside of striking first?

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#44

Post by neom »

RobotToaster wrote: post #26
neom wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NK are specifically prohibited from launching ICBMs under international regulation. Launching them is "illegal". They've test launched a few in the past that were wildly condemned, this is the first time South Korea has threatened to shoot one down, although I'm certain they won't.

>NK are specifically prohibited from launching ICBMs under international regulation What regulations specifically? It seems doubtful the DPRK agreed to those regulations? Edit: I looked it up, it was some random security council resolution, which are usually toothless.

You're missing the point. South Korea would be well within their rights under international law to shoot down the North Korean rocket that is launching the satellite with no repercussions from the international community. I doubt they will because it would probably start WW3, however they have said they may.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#45

Post by Tade0 »

lettergram wrote: post #6
LatteLazy wrote: post #3

If you can put an object into orbit, you can put it into any major (US or other) city within about 45min and no one can intercept it.

I personally see very little risk from North Korea. Put simply, they know they’ll be destroyed if they lash out. They just don’t want to be invaded and deposed. I wouldn’t doubt once they get their ICBM program up if they start improving living standards. They can then adjust their GDP allocation, and reduce their investment in their military. To be clear, completely think their government is beyond horrible. Do not…

> They just don’t want to be invaded and deposed.

It's a means of extorting food aid from, among others, South Korea without losing control over who ultimately receives it.

They're not self-sufficient in terms of agricultural output, but currently it's by design.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#46

Post by LatteLazy »

htag wrote: post #40
LatteLazy wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one really knows. The only time it has been managed was once and that relied on having a tracking device on the ICBM, on it's source, path and target being know before time and on it following the simplest possible trajectory. And that's assuming the Koreans only launch 1, presumably if this thing works in June, they will make more than 1... It's surprising how many systems there are (Russian, French, British, US,…

> It's surprising how many systems there are (Russian, French, British, US, Chinese, Indian etc) and how rarely anyone dares to actually do a public test... The stakes of getting this wrong are incredibly high. Perhaps all of these systems are simple posturing tools, incapable of providing real protection if called upon. They provide comfort to the population, and doubt in their enemies. I think it's just as likely t…

Personally, I am more of a cynic. Hopefully we will never find out who is correct :)

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#47

Post by kevviiinn »

htag wrote: post #34
qup wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does this even mean? Illegal just means the other team says they can't do it. I can't believe that you're very surprised that our team told their team no. NK is almost universally regarded as a bad actor.

Ideally the law provides equal protections and rights to everyone. International law is much further from this ideal than US National law, and many people are surprised to learn details about international law.

If it's equal, why can we do it and they cannot?

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#48

Post by chongli »

nradov wrote: post #39
josefresco wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One man's satellite delivery rocket is another man's ICBM. Ongoing progress in rocket design and experience is more concerning to me than a rise in value of 2 defense stocks.

Well yes and no. While it is technically possible to use a satellite launcher to deliver a nuclear weapon, those technologies have almost completely diverged in most countries. Satellite launch rockets are almost all liquid fueled now in order to maximize payload. Some early ICBMs were also liquid fueled, but that made them less effective as deterrents due to long launch delays. Modern ICBMs are solid fueled: not eno…

That makes sense from a Western perspective where the primary value of nuclear weapons is deterrence. But for North Korea the calculus is different. North Korea already has a conventional deterrent in the form of artillery that could be fired at Seoul and do enormous damage in a matter of seconds.

Instead, their goal with nuclear weapons seems to be nuclear blackmail to obtain food and other economic aid to prop up their dysfunctional economy and support their totalitarian regime. For that purpose, liquid fueled rockets are fine because they don’t need to be fired at a moment’s notice. So it’s not hard to see how a space program could be used to further nuclear aims.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#49

Post by stainablesteel »

lettergram wrote: post #6
LatteLazy wrote: post #3

If you can put an object into orbit, you can put it into any major (US or other) city within about 45min and no one can intercept it.

I personally see very little risk from North Korea. Put simply, they know they’ll be destroyed if they lash out. They just don’t want to be invaded and deposed. I wouldn’t doubt once they get their ICBM program up if they start improving living standards. They can then adjust their GDP allocation, and reduce their investment in their military. To be clear, completely think their government is beyond horrible. Do not…

> I wouldn’t doubt once they get their ICBM program up if they start improving living standards

i'm not sure where this opinion comes from, i seriously doubt it myself

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#50

Post by htag »

kevviiinn wrote: post #47
htag wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ideally the law provides equal protections and rights to everyone. International law is much further from this ideal than US National law, and many people are surprised to learn details about international law.

If it's equal, why can we do it and they cannot?

That's kind of the point. International law isn't equal, there is often an 'us vs them'. The two are very different realms.
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