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This time, it feels different

nadh.in

41–50 of 249 posts

Re: This time, it feels different

#41
post #28
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you call Apple "industry leaders" pre-2000s, though? But anyway, they didn't specify all industry leaders, and it's pretty solid that many leaders were knocked off their perches.

Apple was absolutely an industry leader before the 2000s. Which leaders exactly have been knocked off their perches?

Yahoo ("once the most popular web site in the U.S.", according to Wikipedia)?

Re: This time, it feels different

#42
post #39

> I have come across people who do programming, legal work, business, accountancy and finance, fashion design, architecture, graphic design, research, teaching, cooking, travel planning, event management etc., all of whom have started using the same tool, ChatGPT if I found out my lawyer/account/tax advisor/broker had fed my privileged information into ChatGPT I'd be reporting them to their regulator and they'd be st…

You can use ChatGPT without feeding a clients personal data to it. You can ask hypothetical questions about a certain situation. Like in coding, you don't have to copy paste in source code be able to get some useful feedback on how to proceed.

Re: This time, it feels different

#43
post #28
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you call Apple "industry leaders" pre-2000s, though? But anyway, they didn't specify all industry leaders, and it's pretty solid that many leaders were knocked off their perches.

Apple was absolutely an industry leader before the 2000s. Which leaders exactly have been knocked off their perches?

Yahoo, Compuserve, AOL, Gateway Computers, Nokia, SEGA, Blockbuster, KMart, and countless more medium-large business that didn't have a strategy for the technology shift.

Re: This time, it feels different

#44
post #4

Every few years a new technology goes mainstream and quickly changes the world around us rather fundamentally. I’ve lived through the web in 1995. Google in 2000. Web 2.0 in 2005. Smartphones in 2009. Now it’s generative AI in 2023. Every time, there’s an argument about whether it’s the end of the world or a total nothingburger. Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Every time, there are surprise…

It is amazing to think that people have already forgotten about things like the introduction of smartphones and the internet. The military applications of AI could be civilisation shattering (once someone wins a war with a fully mechanised army all bets are off as to what happens to democracy as a political system and the human race in general). Apart from that risk, there is no reason yet to think that this will be more transformative than what we've seen in the past.

Re: This time, it feels different

#45
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Is that really true? The two largest corporations in the world by market cap are Apple and Microsoft, both founded in the 1970s.

Also the wealth of the average worker has been stagnant since the 70's - computers, the internet, etc came and brought tons of wealth, and didn't raise the standard of living. I've never thought about computers that way - they got here, and didn't make everyone's lives better - they just accelerated wealth concentration in the top 1%.

> computers, the internet, etc came and brought tons of wealth, and didn't raise the standard of living

Huh?? What world are you living in where the standard of living hasn't increased in the last 50 years?

Re: This time, it feels different

#46
post #28
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you call Apple "industry leaders" pre-2000s, though? But anyway, they didn't specify all industry leaders, and it's pretty solid that many leaders were knocked off their perches.

Apple was absolutely an industry leader before the 2000s. Which leaders exactly have been knocked off their perches?

From the phone era... Nokia, Blackberry, Motorola, Palm, Ericson...

Re: This time, it feels different

#47

>LangChain[13] enters the chat! Imagine the horror stories of automated online account blocks and Kafkaesque customer support mazes that are all too common, manifesting at a societal level. I can imagine this to be a problem. But I can also imagine it to solve a problem. Right now, customer support is often "dehumanised" and Kafkaesque because no single human has the full picture and all the permissions required to r…

Yes, these support agents are paid small hourly wages and do the same thing 1000 times a day while dealing with rude or irate customers. Automating their jobs to either eliminate them or change their role to that of bot supervisor will be much better for everyone.

Well you need a handful of supervisors and the rest are laid off. It’s easy to say these jobs being eliminated is good when it’s not your job

Re: This time, it feels different

#48
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Is that really true? The two largest corporations in the world by market cap are Apple and Microsoft, both founded in the 1970s.

Also the wealth of the average worker has been stagnant since the 70's - computers, the internet, etc came and brought tons of wealth, and didn't raise the standard of living. I've never thought about computers that way - they got here, and didn't make everyone's lives better - they just accelerated wealth concentration in the top 1%.

This is true only if you look narrowly at developed countries. If you look more broadly, a tremendous number of people have had huge increases in income in places like China.

That might even be related (i.e., wages for workers are being depressed in developing world as workers see competition from other workers in developing nations). And capital owners benefiting from increased availability of labor.

TBC, agree that gini coefficient re: wealth in developing world is increasing.

Re: This time, it feels different

#49
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple was absolutely an industry leader before the 2000s. Which leaders exactly have been knocked off their perches?

Yahoo, Compuserve, AOL, Gateway Computers, Nokia, SEGA, Blockbuster, KMart, and countless more medium-large business that didn't have a strategy for the technology shift.

Yes, good list, and plenty of others too like Blackberry, Palm, Digg, MySpace, IBM, Blockbuster, etc etc

Re: This time, it feels different

#50

The haiku at the end is not a haiku, technically. As a non-business person, I imagine that folks would typically want some correctness guarantees, which seem near-impossible with today's LLMs. What kind of business use-cases do they enable? Probably a failure of imagination on my part, but I can't think of many tasks that can be done consistently well by AI that can't also be done with simpler software.

> What kind of business use-cases do they enable?

I've dabbled in comms work, and it's very useful for that. One thing that I despise doing is writing copy and LLMs are really good for that - writing dozens of social media posts is tedious and LLMs can rephrase things so that they sound less repetitive. I'm a good writer but I'm an amazing editor so having something to start with also solves the 'staring at a blank page/doc' problem.

Likewise, generating polite answers to stupid questions. Instead of worrying 'how do I tell an ego-driven exec/politician/candidate that what they want is stupid or not possible?' I can have an LLM spit out the stupid corporate drivel the C-Suite all want from their servants. It's also good for dumbing things down but not making it sound like you're dumbing things down and therefore is good for rewriting information for different audiences.

You don't (right now) use LLMs for generating facts but they have a great deal of utility in massaging language.

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