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AI Will Create More Developers, Not Less

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Re: AI Will Create More Developers, Not Less

#41

Post by leroy-is-here »

vannevar wrote: post #9

>I propose a simple lens to settle this debate: look around you and count how many products or services you use regularly that you wish are better digitized or “software-ized.” Unless and until that number is 0, there will be more developers, not less. While this is a great argument that there will be more software in the future (something that I don't think anyone disputes), it's not an argument in favor of the prop…

A developer does more than just write text and that’s all these AI programs can do: generate text. There’s not a single AI that can generate source, attempt to compile it, fix any source errors like the infamous missing semi-colon, and then produce a binary.

Anyway, I think advancement of technologies which generate text can make an individual developer’s task more efficient, e.g. the compiler. But, because of this efficiency on the individual, then more individuals will now be able to take part which means more jobs will be created.

To restate, I don’t think “AI” will make people more productive, it just makes doing the task more productive. This seems like a ridiculous statement, but consider the cotton-gin. Because of the tool, we could throw more and more people at the problem of gathering cotton.

That’s what the development of new tools gets us, more work with the tool that does the job.

Re: AI Will Create More Developers, Not Less

#42

Post by switchbak »

hnthrowaway0328 wrote: post #10

Sure, just as growth of new tech will always create more jobs. But there is a twist: a whole generation of people get fucked over. Or maybe multiple generations. Sure, they can always learn new skills, right? RIGHT? Downvote me as you wish, plesbians.

What's your argument? Why will they get fucked over?

Re: AI Will Create More Developers, Not Less

#43

Post by arecurrence »

vannevar wrote: post #9

>I propose a simple lens to settle this debate: look around you and count how many products or services you use regularly that you wish are better digitized or “software-ized.” Unless and until that number is 0, there will be more developers, not less. While this is a great argument that there will be more software in the future (something that I don't think anyone disputes), it's not an argument in favor of the prop…

While I generally agree with your post, I would like to add that there is a plethora of tasks humans currently do that we have struggled to write acceptable algorithms for for a long time. This has blocked software development from further encroaching into those spaces.

The function approximation that AI offers is good enough to open software development to entire new aspects that have long resisted it. Even something seemingly so simple as order taking from a drive thru window has required algorithms that we have simply been unable to effectively create. We still haven't created them, but we can now approximate them.

These function approximations can now write creative stories and draw pictures of an astounding variety that would have simply been considered impossible even a decade ago. Soon that gym you mentioned will have 100 wide ranging automated app designs to pick from, or even a thousand automatically categorized by style. There will still be countless developers in the mix but they will be working on much more interesting tasks than writing a gym app that we currently allocate Human resources to.

Perhaps wages will decline, but the work will be a lot more interesting :)

Re: AI Will Create More Developers, Not Less

#44

Post by rcme »

littlecranky67 wrote: post #16

I am believing that, too. Just imagine this: Take a Laptop with WinXP+Office 98 from the 2000 era and travel back in time to the 60s or 70s using a time machine. Show the power of Excel to any of those developers punching holes into a punch card, feeding room-sized "computers". Tell them that this "Excel" tool is used by business and sales people without any programming skills. Those developers would clearly tell the…

I disagree. Think about it like this: Excel can do more than punch cards can, but it's also harder to learn. So you can put in more effort and get more out, e.g. you might need 130% of the knowledge, but you get 150% of the result.

These new generative AI algorithms make things easier, but they produce worse results. E.g. you can put in 50% of the effort and get 80% of the result. By lowering the amount of knowledge required to build something, you open up the labor pool to more unskilled labor. So while technically the "number of developers" will increase, the ranks will be increased with unskilled labor and the profession will cease to be desirable knowledge work.

This is very similar to how craftsmen and tradespeople were replaced with automation. For example, "Luddites" are known as people who dislike technological progress, but they were really textile workers who opposed having their high-skill jobs replaced by low-skill laborers with the factory owners pocketing the difference between the high and low skill pay.

Re: AI Will Create More Developers, Not Less

#45

Post by Bukhmanizer »

vannevar wrote: post #9

>I propose a simple lens to settle this debate: look around you and count how many products or services you use regularly that you wish are better digitized or “software-ized.” Unless and until that number is 0, there will be more developers, not less. While this is a great argument that there will be more software in the future (something that I don't think anyone disputes), it's not an argument in favor of the prop…

> Your local gym can't afford to pay someone thousands of dollars for a custom app (or even hundreds of dollars for a customized version of an existing app).

In my experience this isn’t such a problem. When technology makes it easier/cheaper to solve problems, the response is usually to try and solve more problems rather than spending less.

Your local gym might be able to afford a small app now, but I bet the big gyms start adding personalized nutrition/fitness routines into their products.

If we’re going by the history of software engineering, a more likely scenario is that developers start using generative AI to replace a lot of the people/management roles and capture even more of the profit. Of course, things aren’t the same as they were in the 70’s and 80’s, so maybe things won’t work out the same way, but I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion.

Re: AI Will Create More Developers, Not Less

#46

Post by woeirua »

There certainly will be more developers because coding will be more accessible to people without software backgrounds. So that's a net positive for the world.

Also, I think that software engineers in general will get more productive because there will be almost no reason to spend hours pouring over docs anymore. That's a big productivity enhancement. Also, if want to work in a framework or language that you're not an expert in? That's easy peasy now. AI will be a boon to companies that have legacy systems that they were previously struggling to find engineers to work on.

I think the big issue for software is going to be that engineers are no longer the bottleneck and the focus is going to shift from _how_ we build things to _what_ we're building and even more importantly _why_. Engineers should be rejoicing over that because it means that software development is going to be a lot more focused on building and creativity than the mechanical details of how do you get framework X to work with data Y.

Re: AI Will Create More Developers, Not Less

#47

Post by iamwpj »

It's just the process of converting every cost center role into a more efficient half-IT and half-HR/Accounting/OPs role. No one will train anyone so what's the next best thing? Automate stuff; or at least pretend to and pay lot's of money to back the idea up.

Re: AI Will Create More Developers, Not Less

#48

Post by re-thc »

kevingadd wrote: post #13
epolanski wrote: post #6

They said that AI would've disrupted the language translation industry, it actually helped it a ton.

It's been disrupted, though. A lot of translators are now being offered MTL editing work instead, which pays worse and produces lower quality (but takes less time).

And there are less roles (in numbers)

Re: AI Will Create More Developers, Not Less

#49

Post by kristopolous »

The daguerreotype wasn't great news for portrait painters.

It didn't kill painting, it just changed it.

It also opened up a new field of the professional photographer.

I can't stress this enough this is exactly what's going on.

AI is a tool for simple boring repetitive tedium that takes too long.

Abstract art came because after photography, painting the exact same painting of yet another rich person didn't pay the bills anymore. And frankly, thank goodness for that.

Work in the future is not going to look like it does now. It's going to mutate. Ok, that's fine, it always does.

Re: AI Will Create More Developers, Not Less

#50

Post by maigret »

Bukhmanizer wrote: post #45
vannevar wrote: post #9

>I propose a simple lens to settle this debate: look around you and count how many products or services you use regularly that you wish are better digitized or “software-ized.” Unless and until that number is 0, there will be more developers, not less. While this is a great argument that there will be more software in the future (something that I don't think anyone disputes), it's not an argument in favor of the prop…

> Your local gym can't afford to pay someone thousands of dollars for a custom app (or even hundreds of dollars for a customized version of an existing app). In my experience this isn’t such a problem. When technology makes it easier/cheaper to solve problems, the response is usually to try and solve more problems rather than spending less. Your local gym might be able to afford a small app now, but I bet the big gym…

Exactly because the capital is quite constant (either external investors or existing profits) and competition will up their game as well, trying to use the innovation as a differentiator. We can nowadays fulfill all the needs of a person from the 50s, yet we keep finding new occupations, increasing our standards and we keep making the world more complex, desperately so even.
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