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Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

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Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#41
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who would win: An unarmed populace vs one of the best equipped militaries in the world? Unless you get a bunch of Russian generals to defect, the people don’t stand a chance.

Have you seen their military?

Have you seen any military of colonial power genociding indigenous people? They didn't even have airplanes or automatic machine guns.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

West of Europe were not confrontational with Russia, they were dreaming that Russia can be controlled with diplomacy and economy. Sure East Europe knew better what is the discourse in Russia and what Russians will do for their supreme leader.

So you are dreaming to 'control' another country and surprised when the country in question refuses to be controlled. What's in for them in that arrangement? Even funnier is another comment where Russians should risk their lives to overthrow their government and (implicitly) betray millions of their compatriots in order to supply Europe with their cheap 'ressources'. Using Molotov cocktails. Where's the carrot?

Nah, they dream they could bring Russia to the modern age, democracy, human rights, respect for other nations , collaborations . Nobody in EU wants to steal Russians resources, too bad the Russian oligarchs are doing it.

there is a Romanian saying about Romania but it applies to Russia too, "poor rich country" not sure if it translates well... the country is rich but the people are poor and suffering because of the small number of parasites.

My theory is that when you have same persona ndparty in power for decades then they can't hide their incompetence and failures on a party from opposition and they start inventing bad guys somehere outside (like UK invented the EU bad guy and ended up with Brexit( so Putin invented a big conspiracy about the west, LGBTQ , Israel and blame all his failures on them. Now he is gone old and senile and he believed his propaganda.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#43
post #2

I'm not sure that transition of power is a 'taboo': Yekaterina Shulman have been discussing this topic for a few years for a wide popular audience. It's just that there was never any satisfactory answer to that one. With regards to dictators of Spain, Portugal and Greece. These countries could get rid of autocrats and fall back to Europe's safety net. But in case of Russia it is not an option, as nobody wants Russia…

> nobody wants Russia and especially the EU, which was mostly built on the basis of confrontation with Russia This is laughably misinformed. What the E.U. was built on has absolutely nothing to do with Russia. There have been ups and downs over the last couple of centuries, but neither France nor Germany are particularly russophobe.

Yeah, I'm not pro-EU but the bloc was originally a Coal and Steel trading pact. It expanded from there as deeper integration became advantageous.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#44
> Nevertheless, there is no legal way for the authorities to ban it.

I thought Putin was long past the point of being restrained by the law. Can't he just order the law to be changed? Or use a bunch of fancy spy stuff to figure out who owns the book, and arrange for them to fall out of windows?

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#45
post #17
post #3

If this is true, it suggests many Russians actually want their country to become a democracy: > Objectively — though it’s awkward to say — the book has become a bit of a phenomenon. But the book, “The End of the Regime: How Three European Dictatorships Ended”, is not about Russia or Vladimir Putin. It’s about three dictatorships — those of Francisco Franco in Spain, Antonio Salazar in Portugal and the colonels in Gre…

Of course there are many Russians that want an end to the regime. At least, every Russian I know. Why wouldn't they?

They’ve tried that once before and ended up here.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#46
post #44

> Nevertheless, there is no legal way for the authorities to ban it. I thought Putin was long past the point of being restrained by the law. Can't he just order the law to be changed? Or use a bunch of fancy spy stuff to figure out who owns the book, and arrange for them to fall out of windows?

Technically, legality is for the Russian courts to decide, who always rule in favor of who is in power.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia did not see any important integration with Europe countries even before 2014. Yes there were hydrocarbon pipelines but that's that. Amenities such as visa waiver travel, student exchange programmes, cultural exchange and economic integration were practically nonexistent. It does sound strange if you claim to want to avoid a new war in Europe but systemically exclude the largest country in Europe from that equa…

Did Russia ever attempt to apply to join the EU? The real countries in reduce war equation were Germany and France, not Russia.

Putin's view on Russia in the EU was essentially that he never wanted Russia to be on the same level as the member states. He wanted Russia to be at the same level as the EU as a whole if not greater. It stems from a combination of nostalgia for the Soviet Union and a sense of Elitism endemic in parts of the culture.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you are dreaming to 'control' another country and surprised when the country in question refuses to be controlled. What's in for them in that arrangement? Even funnier is another comment where Russians should risk their lives to overthrow their government and (implicitly) betray millions of their compatriots in order to supply Europe with their cheap 'ressources'. Using Molotov cocktails. Where's the carrot?

Nah, they dream they could bring Russia to the modern age, democracy, human rights, respect for other nations , collaborations . Nobody in EU wants to steal Russians resources, too bad the Russian oligarchs are doing it. there is a Romanian saying about Romania but it applies to Russia too, "poor rich country" not sure if it translates well... the country is rich but the people are poor and suffering because of the s…

I don't remember EU doing anything in Russia that was conductive to democracy, human rights, respect for other nations, etc. The only positive influence I can think of, is European Court for Human Rights. But especially, EU didn't do anything when Putin decided to stay in power after 2008, they did not have much cultural integration with Russia, so it seems they expected to sit on the bank and expect democracy in Russia float past.

With regards to "respect for other nations", Russians know how Russian minority is treated in Baltic states and that Russian speakers are treated like 3rd class citizens in Ukraine (even before 2014). Russia treated other nations way better than those other nations treated Russians when on their own turf.

I believe you are confusing Putin with e.g. Orban because Putin is actually BFF with Israel, and even the fact that they are mildly supporting Ukraine didn't dent that.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah, they dream they could bring Russia to the modern age, democracy, human rights, respect for other nations , collaborations . Nobody in EU wants to steal Russians resources, too bad the Russian oligarchs are doing it. there is a Romanian saying about Romania but it applies to Russia too, "poor rich country" not sure if it translates well... the country is rich but the people are poor and suffering because of the s…

I don't remember EU doing anything in Russia that was conductive to democracy, human rights, respect for other nations, etc. The only positive influence I can think of, is European Court for Human Rights. But especially, EU didn't do anything when Putin decided to stay in power after 2008, they did not have much cultural integration with Russia, so it seems they expected to sit on the bank and expect democracy in Rus…

> Putin is actually BFF with Israel, and even the fact that they are mildly supporting Ukraine didn’t dent that.

Israel has been only mildly helping Ukraine in part to buy Russian acquiescence to Israeli attacks on Iranian targets in Syria, where Russia has a substantial presence (though over time getting less, as material and personnel have been shifted to Ukraine.)

Putin isn’t Israel’s BFF despite Israel’s mild support for Ukraine; the Russian presence in Syria is a constraint on Israeli policy that results in it only mildly supporting Ukraine.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russians do indeed want to have some different regime eventually, but usually not at cost of losing the war, having their economy destroyed or getting their country torn apart, etc. Only the young 'children of summer' generation who did not witness 1991 fallout would root for immediate uncontrolled regime change via revolution. Hence it is not a very popular point, and many of its adherents have fleed the country.

Interesting keyword, "regime". Seems like many dictatorships fell in the last decade, in the Arab world, to be replaced by other tyrannical leaders or civil war. Russia seems to have a lot of people in good seats to be a Putin replacement, of course most of them with the same goal of Putin's, i.e. self-enrichment. And to be in such a seat you're usually rich and powerful... And if you're not rich/powerful, you still…

> Russia seems to have a lot of people in good seats to be a Putin replacement, of course most of them with the same goal of Putin's, i.e. self-enrichment. And to be in such a seat you're usually rich and powerful...

I wonder if one of them will take a chance at being a benevolent dictator who sets up a democracy rather than do the usual since the typical dictator seem to have a 50/50 chance of enjoying a retirement vs dying horribly.

Setting up a democracy and slowly releasing power would increases the chances of having a nice retirement considerably.

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