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Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

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Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#41

Post by PheonixPharts »

As someone who has worked in the field of AI/ML for quite awhile now, the problem with current AGI predictions is ML hasn't done anything new since the 80s (or arguably earlier).

At the end of the day all ML is using gradient descent to do some sort of non-linear projection of the data on to a latent space, then doing some relatively simple math in this latent space to perform some task.

Personally I think the limits of this technique are far better than I would have thought 10 years ago.

However we are only near AGI if this is in fact how intelligence works (or can work) and I don't believe we've seen any evidence of this. And there are some very big assumptions baked into this approach.

Essentially all we've done is pushed the basic model proposed by linear regression to it's absolutely limits, but, as impressive as the results are, I'm not entirely convinced this will get is over the limit to AGI.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#42

Post by proc0 »

ActorNightly wrote: post #2

I wish I could bet real money on this cause I would bet hard against this statement. The issue is that nobody seems to agree what AGI even is.

That's the trick, it just means it can do various task at human level. I think the original meaning of "general" is a reference to human intelligence kind of general, in other words Artificial Human Intelligence could be a better name for "true AGI".

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#43

Post by testfoobar »

wg0 wrote: post #13

The other few things possible in next few years for past few years are: 1. Fusion 2. Self driving cars. 3. Ubiquitous, generally available and stable 8192 bit quantum computers. 4. High energy density grid scale batteries. Just few more "this maybe the... what could revolutionize..." articles away. What we forget is that it is in these people's business interest (executives making such statements) to state the exagge…

I'll add another one: all trucks and cars will be electric in 10 years.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#44

Post by wg0 »

marricks wrote: post #3

I really wonder what the next AI winter will be like. Edit: Perhaps OpenAI becomes a major tech player and we just see a cooling off of other AI investments as LLM becomes a known in terms of its strengths and weaknesses. Its abilities reach a natural limit which is still generally very useful. Or maybe folks realize the degree of lies/mistruths inherent in its content is actually unmanageable and can’t be improved.…

> Or maybe folks realize the degree of lies/mistruths inherent in its content is actually unmanageable and can’t be improved. After the hype wears off what it will be used for gets greatly curtailed and we see a big contraction.

I think it's going to be this the future that's ahead us. There's enormous faith being put in next token predictors as the intelligence breakthrough just because their output coincidentally reassembles like something that's derived through a really intelligent process.

LLMs do not hallucinate sometimes. They hallucinate all the time, it just is a coincident that sometimes these autocompletion of Tokens aligns with the reality. Just by chance, not by craft.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#45

Post by xbmcuser »

majikaja wrote: post #15
marricks wrote: post #3

I really wonder what the next AI winter will be like. Edit: Perhaps OpenAI becomes a major tech player and we just see a cooling off of other AI investments as LLM becomes a known in terms of its strengths and weaknesses. Its abilities reach a natural limit which is still generally very useful. Or maybe folks realize the degree of lies/mistruths inherent in its content is actually unmanageable and can’t be improved.…

>we just see a cooling off of other endeavors as LLM becomes a known in terms of its strengths and weaknesses and it’s abilities reach a natural limit which is still general useful. This is my prediction If the training set is just the internet, it will be not much different than someone who spends all their lives in their room in front of their computer.

I don't get all the negativity unlike most humans LLM can be made to discard bad or incorrect data. Quickly transition to new ways of doing something. A human spending all their life in a room in front of the computer would not can not go through all the millions of scientific papers and journals. They would not look at unlimited amount of code or go through all the past and present law of every country . No human is capable of that.

We are entering into the real culmination of the information age where previously information was available but not exactly accessible or usable for a common person. Which like all tools will result in good and bad outcomes.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#46

Post by soulofmischief »

PheonixPharts wrote: post #41

As someone who has worked in the field of AI/ML for quite awhile now, the problem with current AGI predictions is ML hasn't done anything new since the 80s (or arguably earlier). At the end of the day all ML is using gradient descent to do some sort of non-linear projection of the data on to a latent space, then doing some relatively simple math in this latent space to perform some task. Personally I think the limits…

Ultimately you are just a system who maintains homeostasis by modeling your environment and reprojecting it to find patterns which can be used to make actions with predictable outcomes. Is this intelligence? Is there only one correct way to achieve this goal?

What do you believe intelligence to be?

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#47

Post by blooalien »

testfoobar wrote: post #43
wg0 wrote: post #13

The other few things possible in next few years for past few years are: 1. Fusion 2. Self driving cars. 3. Ubiquitous, generally available and stable 8192 bit quantum computers. 4. High energy density grid scale batteries. Just few more "this maybe the... what could revolutionize..." articles away. What we forget is that it is in these people's business interest (executives making such statements) to state the exagge…

I'll add another one: all trucks and cars will be electric in 10 years.

"A flying car in every garage…"

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#48

Post by wg0 »

testfoobar wrote: post #43
wg0 wrote: post #13

The other few things possible in next few years for past few years are: 1. Fusion 2. Self driving cars. 3. Ubiquitous, generally available and stable 8192 bit quantum computers. 4. High energy density grid scale batteries. Just few more "this maybe the... what could revolutionize..." articles away. What we forget is that it is in these people's business interest (executives making such statements) to state the exagge…

I'll add another one: all trucks and cars will be electric in 10 years.

Don't see that happening. Electric cars are either a rich boy's toy or environmentalists or enthusiasts are into it.

Average Joe with concerns of practicality and longevity is sticking to ICEs for foreseeable future.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#49

Post by lofaszvanitt »

testfoobar wrote: post #43
wg0 wrote: post #13

The other few things possible in next few years for past few years are: 1. Fusion 2. Self driving cars. 3. Ubiquitous, generally available and stable 8192 bit quantum computers. 4. High energy density grid scale batteries. Just few more "this maybe the... what could revolutionize..." articles away. What we forget is that it is in these people's business interest (executives making such statements) to state the exagge…

I'll add another one: all trucks and cars will be electric in 10 years.

Nope.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#50

Post by sowbug »

ckemere wrote: post #23

Several comments have touched on this, but wouldn't you define an AGI as something that could learn to drive a car? I think every (reasonable ( person understands self driving is >10 years away. So shouldn't AGI be?

Self-driving cars are colloquially held to a much higher standard than human drivers are. Nothing currently exists that meets that standard. But humans meet the GI standard of AGI. And strong evidence shows that humans exist.

Thus, the standard for AGI is lower than the standard for self-driving cars. Existence of an AGI does not imply existence of self-driving cars.

To put it another way: take the worst human driver who still qualifies as "could learn to drive a car." (It's assumed the person is intelligent.) Construct a Turing-like test where we observe a car possibly being driven by that person, but we don't know who or what is actually driving the car. The car drives over a curb, kills a cat crossing the street, narrowly misses a dozen pedestrians in crosswalks, and finally parks poorly in a mall parking lot -- just like we would expect from the world's worst human driver. After observing that car trip, would we celebrate the long-awaited arrival of self-driving cars?

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