Isn't the obvious arrow here that high prices drives density? The fact that NYC is the densest and most expensive seems to be an obvious story of high prices incentivizing people to build up. The question is whether or not an old building being replaced by a tower or a single family house will lead to more expensive housing throughout the city. I still am confused as to how density would hurt locally here.
I hadn't thought of it like this before, but I think he's arguing that there is a network effect. High density is more convenient, which induces demand.
Change my mind: Density increases local but decreases global prices
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Re: Change my mind: Density increases local but decreases global prices
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
I was paid a local salary while living in Japan. The total cost of living in Tokyo blows NYC and the Bay out of the water in terms of affordability and I’ve lived multiple years in all three. CPI with rent in NYC is nearly 90% higher. Median household in New York is 120k; it’s 87k in Japan. Rent is over 200% higher than in Japan. Even adjusting for square footage and the earning differential, I assure you it is much…
I'm not talking about total cost of living, I'm talking about the rent. meals along with other things, in tokyo are substantially cheaper than in New York, agreed.
Re: Change my mind: Density increases local but decreases global prices
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
The average apartment in Tokyo is small, but under $1,000 USD/month.
what's the average income? Affordable isn't $.
Re: Change my mind: Density increases local but decreases global prices
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
I hadn't thought of it like this before, but I think he's arguing that there is a network effect. High density is more convenient, which induces demand.
I realize he is arguing for that but I think its pretty silly to have the chart there showing the correlation if so. He does address the point I made in the article but I think he dismisses it too fast without much evidence.
Re: Change my mind: Density increases local but decreases global prices
#45Personally I’ve never believed that adding more houses decreases prices. Though that is true in theory, in practice what happens is: 1. Major housing developments are accompanied by more jobs than the units being built could serve. 2. Developments are accompanied by local initiatives to improve the neighborhood that take effect soon after. 3. The quality disparity in a given area results in people far higher than the…
After a certain point, density probably increases unit costs, which would mean the densest housing can't be the cheapest.
I'm reminded of an all-hands meeting years ago, where employees were asking for parking improvements in very office building large building (surrounded by very large parking lots). They wanted a parking garage, and the management said flat out that wasn't going to happen because it would cost 10x+ more per parking space.
Re: Change my mind: Density increases local but decreases global prices
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
the assertion is that building more reduces prices, not merely keeps them the same, though. and it's complicated to say that tokyo population has grown while prices for houses remain constant. what has happened to the other areas? how has the median wage changed?
> the assertion is that building more reduces prices, not merely keeps them the same, though Building more reduces prices below what they would have been if that building didn't happen.
seems like moving the goal posts. it's only expensive to begin with due to the density and subsequent amenities enabled by such.
why is for example Manhattan more expensive than Brooklyn? it's more dense, should be cheaper accordingly to the density makes cheaper logic.
people keep moving the goal posts, but anyone can go on Redfin and figure this out themselves. look at the median rent, find the median wage, find the median sq footage. calculate the adjusted wage by sq/ft. it's not higher in dense areas.
Re: Change my mind: Density increases local but decreases global prices
#47Why is it that many of the same people who argue against more roads and more parking lots on the basis of induced demand preventing more roads from meaningfully solving congestion seem to think that in the densest and most competitive cities that adding units will necessarily make hosing affordable?
With housing you also have a better chance of outpacing demand growth if you build densely enough. Even that's never enough to meet all the demand, at least you end up housing more people in a desirable area than you'd otherwise if the density was kept artificially low.
I realise it's a personal preference and in the US culture dense cities have a poor reputation, but dense cities can offer walkability and public transport infrastructure that wouldn't be economical otherwise. In many places around the world this is valued as a goal in itself.
Re: Change my mind: Density increases local but decreases global prices
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is very much evidence that building more housing decreases the price of housing. I'm not sure why you think there isn't. https://www.upjohn.org/research-highlights/new-construction-...
then why are the places with the most units the most expensive? the research seems bad - they use a simulation, not actual data.
Because the most people want to live there and population is growing?
There are plenty of high density old towns all over Italy that are dirt cheap because nobody wants to live there anymore. You can buy a whole house for $10 in a town built for such high population densities that streets are a meter wide.
Re: Change my mind: Density increases local but decreases global prices
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
then why are the places with the most units the most expensive? the research seems bad - they use a simulation, not actual data.
> then why are the places with the most units the most expensive? Because the most people want to live there and population is growing? There are plenty of high density old towns all over Italy that are dirt cheap because nobody wants to live there anymore. You can buy a whole house for $10 in a town built for such high population densities that streets are a meter wide.
Re: Change my mind: Density increases local but decreases global prices
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am not against building more. I am simply saying that if you look at the data, there is no evidence what so ever that building more decreases the price of housing. What it does is slow the price increases, but the very demand that is driving price increases was generated by the density, that is exacerbated by building more. We need a better metric. If you have some number to describe the quality of a city, perhaps…
Density doesn't drive price. Nobody pays more for "density". Density and price are both simply measures that track other desirable factors like jobs. It is correlation, not causation.
You do, actually, pay more for "density". Moving things closer together, incurs extra costs (Even ignoring all other factors). Building codes have to be stricter (for equivalent safety levels), when buildings are closer together. Walls and insulation need more expensive materials (for equivalent sound dampening levels), when buildings are closer together. Insurance rates get higher (for equivalent coverage), when units are closer together. Labor costs are higher and labor time needed is higher (for equivalent results), and so on.
A few costs go down (less length of pipe material, or less length of wire, etc). But those minor material costs are usually far out-shadowed by the increases in labor to accomplish them (it costs less money to replace all shared water pipe in my 20 house suburban street, than it costs to replace all shared water pipe in a NYC mid-level with 20 units, even though the literal length of pipe material might be cheaper). It costs more to remodel a bathroom in Manhattan than in (say) Louisville, KY., even for identical bathrooms with identical fixtures and identical sqft.
Denser usually means more complexity or more labour, both things that cost extra money.
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Density advocates generally acknowledge this, density fundamentally costs more. Their argument usually rests on cities having hyper-overvalued properties -- the argument is that the extra cost of density is cheaper than the extra cost of land, and that's how they manage to make density look like a cost savings. Which kind-of works in major cities downtowns, but doesn't really pencil out elsewhere.