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If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance

technologyreview.com

41–50 of 75 posts

Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance

#41

It doesn't seem like there is much to say on this topic. Wealth accumulation is the outcome of many dice rolls, some that are weighted in ways that are within your control and some that are weighted in ways outside your control. The most you can do is to roll as many dice as you can and, to the best of your ability, choose those that are already optimally weighted.

Which weights in your two categories are larger is the entire discussion though.

Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance

#44

The failure rate for smart people who don't try and don't take risks is 100%.

That sounds weird, how can you fail if you don't try? What sounds better to me is that the success rate for those who don't try is 0%, which btw I don't see a counter argument for the article. Obviously if you don't try you don't even enter the lottery.

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Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance

#45
post #6

It's hardly "just chance". Wealth is a fitness landscape. The way to climb it is a function of talent, intelligence, perseverance, connections, leverage, charisma, mindshare, labor capital, financial capital, "right place, right time" (chance), and a multitude of other factors in an n-dimensional, m-agent game that is simultaneously cooperative and competitive. You can start at an advantage or disadvantage. You can m…

Sure, but a lot of those things listed are chance. Chance is the biggest differentiator. Chance is why you connected with the right person in university to start a business you two aligned with. Chance is why you were raised with parents who prioritized teaching you charisma skills. Chance is why you didn't have to work in a factory since you were 14. Chance is why you didn't get that girl pregnant despite the condom being ripped. So many moments in our life are "just chance".

I don't understand why we have to ignore this reality, I'm not wealthier than someone else because of "charisma" or "talent". I was born into a family that could afford to take risks (lucky), embraced tech early (lucky), kept me healthy and without defects (lucky), I got great teachers growing up (lucky), met the right people who kept me from falling into the traps of drugs and abuse (lucky), the list goes on. I'm grateful for so much in my life, and very little of it has anything to do with some conscious entirely isolated choice of climbing this "fitness landscape of wealth".

So much of what we believe are active choices aren't really. They're a consequence of previous choices. You are limited based off those previous choices. I mean, if you believe in free will, which is hotly debated!

Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance

#46
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds weird, how can you fail if you don't try? What sounds better to me is that the success rate for those who don't try is 0%, which btw I don't see a counter argument for the article. Obviously if you don't try you don't even enter the lottery.

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Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance

#48

The conclusion rather trivially follow from the notion of "lucky events" baked into the model. That doesn't prove much.

Mathematical models of this sort have always been a reliable way to get out whatever conclusion you put in.

Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance

#49
"Again I saw that under the sun the race was not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor bread to the wise, nor riches to the intelligent, nor favor to those with knowledge, but time and chance happen to them all." -- Ecclesiastes 9:11 (ESV)

Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance

#50
> The most successful people are not the most talented, just the luckiest, a new computer model of wealth creation confirms

This is the least credible genre of "study says" article. You can't make claims about the real world based on some of researcher's guesswork simulation of society.

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