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Bank failures come in waves

yarn.pranshum.com

41–50 of 259 posts

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#41
From what I understand, when someone takes out a loan, a bank doesn't lend out depositors' money. Instead money is "created" by the bank (on behalf of the fed), and the bank needs to pay the fed interest. The bank also needs to pay the loan back by an agreed uppn time (which destroys the money).

Why can we not have a similar system for deposits? A bank takes a deposit, the fed "destroys" the money, but pays interest to the bank. When the depositor wants to withdraw their money, the fed/bank recreates the money.

I guess this is sort of what happens with banks buying bonds from various government bodies, but the banks are managing a mix of bond maturity durations.

If bank runs are a worry, why not do away with this flexibility for the banks?

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#42
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmm. Would it be easy nowadays to just have a software service that split up an account into n accounts of less than $250k, and then presented a single interface to all of them? I guess individual purchases over $250k would be a problem, but I guess a short-term gather operation could be ok, as long as you aren’t too worried about a bank run while that transaction was occurring.

See, for example, Fidelity's FDIC-Insured Deposit Sweep Program. https://accountopening.fidelity.com/ftgw/aong/aongapp/fdicBa... >To provide you with the benefit of FDIC insurance eligibility, the cash balance in your account will be automatically swept into an interest-bearing FDIC-Insured Deposit Sweep position. Since FDIC insurance coverage is currently limited to $250,000 per qualified customer account per bankin…

Interesting. So is the coverage cap actually accomplishing much?

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#44
post #41

From what I understand, when someone takes out a loan, a bank doesn't lend out depositors' money. Instead money is "created" by the bank (on behalf of the fed), and the bank needs to pay the fed interest. The bank also needs to pay the loan back by an agreed uppn time (which destroys the money). Why can we not have a similar system for deposits? A bank takes a deposit, the fed "destroys" the money, but pays interest…

Fed hates that and fights this tooth and nail. See, for example:

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2018/09/fed-nixes-narrow-... https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2019/03/fed-vs-narrow-ban...

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#46

Pretty Simple fix. Have the fed backstop all depositors to infinity. Today there are no limits on the number of 250k FDIC insured deposits. Logically the same thing as insuring a single account to infinity.

> Pretty Simple fix. Backstops have a cost, and infinite backstop subsidizes risk taking activity of deposit taking institutions. I'm not even saying that what was done in the wake of SVB and Signature was wrong, per se, but making it formal policy that all deposits in a bank are insured is a fundamental change to the foundation of banking in the US. It may be "right" or it may be "wrong", but the one thing it is not…

AFAIK, the current normal is for banking systems to ensure all of the deposits, the US is an exception. And this policy hasn't caused any disaster anywhere yet.

But yes, the US has more singular things that can interact badly with no limits on insurance. As a start, the insuring entity has much shallower pockets than most places I know about.

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe we should stop paying taxes since the FED can just print new money when we need it.

Your comment seems pretty unserious, but modern monetary theory ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory ) adherents assert that the point of taxes is not to "fund" anything, but to engineer incentives, redistribute wealth, and remove excess money. And that, yes, we should simply print money, to the extent that we need to, subject to the constraint that excess money causes inflation in specific circumst…

Hum... I only disagree that people keeping calling it "modern".

The actually modern theory has a much more complex lifecycle for money. Yep, government spending creates it, and taxing destroys it, but between all the kinds of money and the entities that can create them, it's not automatic that the government numbers are the important ones.

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#48
post #41

From what I understand, when someone takes out a loan, a bank doesn't lend out depositors' money. Instead money is "created" by the bank (on behalf of the fed), and the bank needs to pay the fed interest. The bank also needs to pay the loan back by an agreed uppn time (which destroys the money). Why can we not have a similar system for deposits? A bank takes a deposit, the fed "destroys" the money, but pays interest…

It give banks far too much leverage.

If they took large losses or lent out too much, inflation would skyrocket.

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#49
post #41

From what I understand, when someone takes out a loan, a bank doesn't lend out depositors' money. Instead money is "created" by the bank (on behalf of the fed), and the bank needs to pay the fed interest. The bank also needs to pay the loan back by an agreed uppn time (which destroys the money). Why can we not have a similar system for deposits? A bank takes a deposit, the fed "destroys" the money, but pays interest…

>when someone takes out a loan, a bank doesn't lend out depositors' money. Instead money is "created" by the bank (on behalf of the fed), and the bank needs to pay the fed interest.

Commercial banks can not create loans out of thin air during normal operation. They either have to use depositors' money or share holders' capital. In other words, bank's liabilities (e.g. user deposits) should not exceed its assets (loans to users, securities, reserves at Fed, etc.). There are games which can played with how assets worth is measured (e.g. mark-to-market vs. mark-to-maturity), but otherwise the rule must be followed by banks.

>Why can we not have a similar system for deposits? A bank takes a deposit, the fed "destroys" the money, but pays interest to the bank. When the depositor wants to withdraw their money, the fed/bank recreates the money.

When a bank receives a deposit, it has to decide what to do with it. It can either loan it to someone (either directly or by buying bonds), invest (e.g. by buying stocks), pay it as a dividend to share holders (assuming it has far more assets than liabilities), or keep it in bank's reserve account at Fed. In the later case it gets payed roughly the key interest rate. This is why rate hikes suppress inflation (at least in the near term), banks instead of deploying their capital into the economy deposit it at Fed, thus temporarily removing it from circulation. It also means that cost of loans in the wider economy rises accordingly, since banks will not loan without a sufficient premium to the Fed's rate.

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#50
post #41

From what I understand, when someone takes out a loan, a bank doesn't lend out depositors' money. Instead money is "created" by the bank (on behalf of the fed), and the bank needs to pay the fed interest. The bank also needs to pay the loan back by an agreed uppn time (which destroys the money). Why can we not have a similar system for deposits? A bank takes a deposit, the fed "destroys" the money, but pays interest…

If I'm a bank why would I want to get X% interest from the Fed when I can instead get X+Y% interest from some other investment option[0]? Yes the risk is higher, but typically only marginally so. Obviously you have big failures like SVB & others, but the reality is that those aren't common.

It also lets the bank pass on the increased rates to customers. The current fed interest rate is ~4.5%, but there are banks out there right now where you can get >5% in a savings account[1]. Your system would remove that option for consumers.

[0] Other option being some regulatorily approved option, not throw it all in the latest crypto ICO

[1] https://www.ufbdirect.com/

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