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Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

economist.com

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Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#41

Post by adastra22 »

dwohnitmok wrote: post #19
jmclnx wrote: post #3

All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to even entertain that thought. This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.

The Taiwanese concept of "unification" is not what you're thinking of. The Taiwanese faction supporting unification (usually the KMT) does not envision a world where Taiwan is/becomes a province of the PRC, they envision a world where the ROC governs all current PRC provinces, that is where they are in the seat of power in Beijing. I.e. this is something going in the opposite direction. The opposing faction rejects t…

That was Taiwanese politics in the 90’s. It doesn’t reflect current party policy.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#42

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

jmclnx wrote: post #3

All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to even entertain that thought. This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.

[flagged]

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#43

Post by edrxty »

yogthos wrote: post #37
jmclnx wrote: post #3

All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to even entertain that thought. This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.

[flagged]

If any state is being propagandized into secession it's Florida right now.

They, however, find themselves in a race with mother nature to see who will remove them from the continental US first.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#44

Post by richardw »

cm2187 wrote: post #7

What I don't get is that to invade Taiwan, China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes, both of which seem very vulnerable to modern missiles (as the Russian army found out in Ukraine). Do the chinese have a solution for that?

> China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes

We're watching warfare change right now. There are many paths to success for China, given enough attention and focus.

Just one: 100 million drones to deal with all the fixed defences, and then you arrive to negotiate once you've repeatedly overwhelmed the enemy for 6 months. We've spent the last few decades helping China build the biggest manufacturing engine in history, and Ukraine has shown us what "cheap and accurate" can do. No doubt in my mind that China will be able to innovate further once it has a very good reason to do so.

If the West tries to copy this, surely it's mostly relying on chips produced in Taiwan? Give that 6 months, because I'm pretty sure China can restrict chip flow faster than the West can build backup capability. And once China owns that chip production it could easily result in 20 years (or indefinite) tech dominance. Sure, experts will be fleeing in droves but factories and supply chains don't just spring up overnight.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#45

Post by simplotek »

mulmen wrote: post #28
itake wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. Maybe I am diving too much into the weeds here, but my understanding with HK is when the UK left and setup autonomous region with China in 1984, China/UK agree to leave the gov unchanged for 50 years after 1997 [0]. This interim government that was setup is controlled by CCP members. My understanding is the Taiwan gov has always been completely separate fro…

Taiwan has no relationship to HK. My understanding as an outsider: Taiwan is governed by the Republic of China (ROC), which regained control of Taiwan in 1945 after the Japanese pulled out. ROC was overthrown my Mao's Chinese Communist Party (CCP) during the Chinese Civil War and lost control of the Chinese mainland allowing the CCP to form the People's Republic of China (PRC). The ROC retained control of Taiwan. Tai…

> (...) the People's Republic of China did not hold up their end of the bargain with the UK in HK so there is no reason to trust them in any agreement of "reunification" in Taiwan if the terms are anything other than complete submission to PRC rule.

This. PRC's talk of "reunification" reads like a trojan horse played with a long hand which was what happened in HK.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#47

Post by dirtyid »

mupuff1234 wrote: post #6

Probably a completely idiotic suggestion, but why can't the US secretly provide Taiwan with a few nukes if things really heat up as a very last measure to deter China.

Because historically nukes haven't deterred PRC who fought / skirmished / confronted with every nuclear state, USSR (border), USA (Korea), UK (HK threats), India (skirmishes), France (proxy in Vietnam), a few of those even when PRC wasn't a nuclear state it self. All over sovereignty / security interests much less important than TW. It's actually stupid how willing PRC is not deterred by nukes. PRC will treat TW slinging US sanctioned nukes same as US nuclear use.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#48

Post by dwohnitmok »

adastra22 wrote: post #41
dwohnitmok wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Taiwanese concept of "unification" is not what you're thinking of. The Taiwanese faction supporting unification (usually the KMT) does not envision a world where Taiwan is/becomes a province of the PRC, they envision a world where the ROC governs all current PRC provinces, that is where they are in the seat of power in Beijing. I.e. this is something going in the opposite direction. The opposing faction rejects t…

That was Taiwanese politics in the 90’s. It doesn’t reflect current party policy.

As far as I'm aware this is still the official party line of the KMT.

It's just that now the DPP (their opposition) is in power.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#49

Post by wk_end »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #42
jmclnx wrote: post #3

All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to even entertain that thought. This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.

[flagged]

It wasn't about "taking orders", and it had nothing to do with the British. The CCP broke promises they'd made to the people of Hong Kong.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#50

Post by bena »

it_citizen wrote: post #20

I am curious what the dominant opinion is in China regarding what the population of Taiwan wants. That the majority of Taiwanese want to become Chinese? That it doesn’t matter what the Taiwan population wants because China has the right to claim it?

The dominant opinion of the people of China or of the government of China?

I would say that the majority of the people of China are much like the majority of the people of any land, they don't directly care about the issue. Someone on the other side of the country in Karamay probably doesn't even think about Taiwan for most of their days.

However, according to the government of China, Taiwan is an island occupied by a rogue government, the last remnants of the losing side of a Civil War. That island is part of China.

The people of Taiwan have different opinions. Three major ones last I looked. There's the opinion of the natives who think Taiwan should be its own country, independent of any other country's influence. Control of the area has alternated between China and Japan. With China getting control back in 1945 after WWII.

Then there's the people who believe that the ROC should be reinstated on the mainland.

And finally, some people who think they should just become members of the PRC and get all over with.

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