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International Security and Estonia 2023

raport.valisluureamet.ee

41–50 of 265 posts

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#41
post #3

Somewhat related and interesting report by arte.tv (might need a German/French VPN exit point): https://www.arte.tv/en/videos/106708-000-A/panic-in-the-balt...

yt-dlp seems to be able to get the video regardless of location. Video is in French, and has no subtitles. (yt-dlp gets the VTT file, but it appears to be empty).

There are English subtitles when video is viewed on the webpage. Don't know why yt-dlp can't find them.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#42
post #5

[flagged]

> Russian officials already know that any “negotiation” or treaty signed with Kiev (in fact with the US) is not even worth the paper it is written on, I had hoped the Estonian “Foreign Intelligence Service” would have been aware of that. Can you substantiate this? Please provide to specific examples.

There are plenty. Russia is hardly a paragon of honestly, but from the Russian perspective there are plenty of examples to draw from about Western leaders ignoring agreements.

The first and most obvious is this: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017...

Then comes the withdrawal from various nuclear treaties, the first being this: https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/12/13/u.s.-exit-from-anti...

GWB's attempted placement of a missile shield in Poland (ostensibly to defend from Iran) really heated the waters, although Obama ultimately killed it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_missile_defense_...

Then Minsk failed, and Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko's statements haven't helped at all. Merkel's is probably most important (Die Zeit has a paywall, so here is a PDF of the article): https://pdfhost.io/v/e0FRLvfzB_Angela_Merkel___Hatten_Sie_ge...

Most recently for the Russians is probably the seizing of their central bank's assets by the US and EU. I'm not sure how solid the legal rationale at the time was, but either way it happened: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/us/politics/us-sanctions-...

Neither side trusts the other. At all. So ultimately guns and blood will determine the result.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#43
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a former USSR country (although not willingly) this is a weird construct, we were not willingly part of soviet union, not not willingly former

I think the former (not willingly part of) is the intended reading, referrring to how the Baltics were forced into the Soviet fold, as opposed to how some other constituent republics joined. (Not to belittle the foul play of the creation of Soviet Union in general, either.)

I'm sure it is. It was a nit that most reasonable people would have known anyway. That said there are lots of bad faith actors around.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#45
post #13
post #5

[flagged]

Who broke the Budapest memorandum? Russia was all alone in that. It's impossible to make an agreement with Russia, as a state actor or not, while being sure that Russia won't break it the second it is beneficial for them. Claiming the contrary is pure ideology.

[flagged]

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#46
post #37

For context, Estonia is a NATO member with significant Russian minority population

[flagged]

Fun fact: You're leaving out some key facts.

https://news.err.ee/1608873710/still-no-solutions-for-russia...

Russia won't let them renounce their citizenship overseas, and going to Russia to do it will get you drafted.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#47
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what happened in WW2. Nobody was willing to negotiate with Hitler because it was apparent that he was utterly untrustworthy, as evidenced by his repeated aggressions through the 30s before WW2 finally broke out. It's the same situation here. Nobody can possibly trust Putin. He's utterly untrustworthy and any treaty would presumably just be breathing space and time for Russia to continue building up its forces…

"nobody can trust Putin" - it was admitted both by Merkel, and by another high ranked politician whose name I do not remember at this moment that the goal of Minsk agreement was not to give autonomy to Donbass, which did not accept ukranian nationalism, but to buy time for Ukrainian army to rearm. So I think you are confusing things.

Notably, she said this after the 2022 invasion and this narrative doesn't correspond to the fact that her foreign minister Steinmeier was heavily pushing for the Minsk implementation (that's not what you do when you're just trying to buy time).

Furthermore, Minsk agreement was about much more than just Donbas. Implementing it would mean puppetization of the whole Ukraine - read a pretty damning analysis here: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/05/minsk-conundrum-western...

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kiev and the US wouldn't have to uphold any agreements if Russia leaves Ukraine. Once they leave, the war is over. No "deal" is needed here.

Well, a new case will start then - reparations for the billions in damage, lives lost and upheaval.

I'm not sure reparations have a good track record of brokering any sort of lasting peace and de-escalation, see the treaty of versaille for Germany post wwI...leading into wwII..

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#49
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yt-dlp seems to be able to get the video regardless of location. Video is in French, and has no subtitles. (yt-dlp gets the VTT file, but it appears to be empty).

There are English subtitles when video is viewed on the webpage. Don't know why yt-dlp can't find them.

yt-dlp gets the .vtt file, but the subtitles appear to be empty.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#50

For context, Estonia is a NATO member with significant Russian minority population

And a former USSR country (although not willingly), and it shares a border with Russia, and it's the most remote NATO country. That said, if Russia does try anything, that will escalate the conflict and get NATO involved directly.

>a former USSR country (although not willingly)

Was the process of a joining the the USSR ever a willingly thing a country could choose to do or not to do?

AFAIK, the process was something more like Russian army invades your country and says "Congrats comrades, you are now liberated and part of the Soviet Union", rather than "Hey, would you like to have a democratic vote on joining our Soviet Union? No hard feelings if you don't want to, we can still be friends."

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