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7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

earthquake.usgs.gov

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Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#41

Post by jjtheblunt »

helf wrote: post #38
jjtheblunt wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s before dawn so maybe not being online is just normal, but yeah it is scary

I normally would agree but he is usually online at these times due to work schedule etc :/

Hope it’s ok. We too await hearing about a team member there

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#45

Post by cjensen »

anonu wrote: post #33

This guy somehow predicted it? https://twitter.com/hogrbe/status/1621479563720118273?t=uZuu... Lucky or good?

That's not a prediction that can be evaluated. For example, I could say "there will be a 7+ magnitude quake somewhere in the Pacific Rim tomorrow" and if I publish the same prediction every day it won't be long until my prediction is true. I might even be right the very first time.

A real prediction should include exact time period, magnitude, and geographic area. And every prediction made must be documented. This lets you do two things: first it lets you clearly decide which predictions came true. Second, we can look at historic probabilities for the predicted quake and evaluate the chances of blind guessing being correct for that exact set of predictions.

In this particular instance, if you look at the predictions made on his twitter stream you'll find that he's clearly a quack who predicts stuff constantly. Not super surprising he got one right. EDIT: Also... surprise! There was a foreshock a couple of hours before he made the prediction.

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#47

Post by pg_bot »

anonu wrote: post #33

This guy somehow predicted it? https://twitter.com/hogrbe/status/1621479563720118273?t=uZuu... Lucky or good?

Hmm this guy's focus on planetary movements and lunar geometry light up the parts of my brain reserved for detecting quackery.

I would bet that he got extremely lucky with his timing.

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