41–50 of 282 posts
Is there a nuance to this publishing process that makes this make sense?
The reason this kind of analysis is irrelevant is that human civilization has only been exploiting oil since ~ early 1900s. Sure, fossil fuels in the form of coal has been exploited before, but nothing on the scale of coal/gas/oil use that started after the Great Depression and ramped up to peak per capita consumption circa 1970s if memory serves. So you always have to look at that historic period discounting that, a…
Solar is within oil's error bars on a cost per kWh basis. Sure, there are kinks in storage and transport to work out. But the fundamental cost of energy doesn't look likely to change in the coming century.
The reason this kind of analysis is irrelevant is that human civilization has only been exploiting oil since ~ early 1900s. Sure, fossil fuels in the form of coal has been exploited before, but nothing on the scale of coal/gas/oil use that started after the Great Depression and ramped up to peak per capita consumption circa 1970s if memory serves. So you always have to look at that historic period discounting that, a…
Are they? I think they've been slow for maybe the last 20 years, but it seems like the advances in things like AI and Genomics are rapidly accelerating and may lead to growth like we haven't seen in several decades...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
$8 million in cash will always be $8 million in cash. "Stashed it away" is pretty vague but cash is cash.
Only if you literally mean physical cash. Banks offered pretty significant interest rates historically.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
$8 million in cash will always be $8 million in cash. "Stashed it away" is pretty vague but cash is cash.
Only if you literally mean physical cash. Banks offered pretty significant interest rates historically.
If I was alive in 1923 and stashed away $8 million in ̶c̶a̶s̶h̶ (Edit: 100y bonds) would only be worth about $140 million today. Had I put it into some fancy ETF (Recall Vanguard dates back only to 1975, but whatever) I'd be a billionaire. That's it, that is the entire difference of less than an order of magnitude. Don't reckon the nickels and the dimes matter much to centenarians. Most people don't even have $8000 t…
> If I was alive in 1923 and stashed away $8 million in cash it would only be worth about $140 million today. Stashed it away as cash where? If you had $8M in 1923 and kept it under a mattress, it would still be $8M today - the difference is due to inflation - in 1923 you would've been the equivalent of a Billionaire today - and today... you'd have $8M. I think things like this matter a lot. If you invested in treasu…
Saving account interest rates haven't been 0% for the whole last 100 years.
It's not a great investment, but you'd have substantially more than $8M.
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> getting rid of dividends makes no sense and is borderline intellectually dishonest just to make the point How so? Once you retire, you don't let dividends reinvest. Makes perfect sense.
Dividends aren't enough to cover living expenses. If you plan to withdraw 4% per year, so you preserve your wealth indefinitely, you're more than 2 percentage points short when the dividend yield is 1.71% [1] If you want to live solely from dividends, you'll need more than double the capital. If you want to die with zero [2], it's impossible. I'd much rather invest in a dividend-accumulating index fund and sell as I…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> getting rid of dividends makes no sense and is borderline intellectually dishonest just to make the point How so? Once you retire, you don't let dividends reinvest. Makes perfect sense.
Why would you exclude part of the total return on an investment? It'd be like ignoring the principal value of a bond because you expect to live on the coupon. Cashflows are cashflows.
My primary criticism is that it took me several minutes to see a chart. The exposition is very interesting. I don't judge a paper by its cover, but it kinda took a lot of work to read something that was described as visual! Is there a nuance to this publishing process that makes this make sense?