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California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

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Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#41

Post by todd3834 »

KaiserPro wrote: post #18
api wrote: post #2

How much could the recent Musk meltdown be related to FSD just not arriving? It seems like we have reached a point after many years of FSD being “next year” when it’s becoming clear that it’s further away than anyone thought. I’ve thought the difficulty was being vastly underestimated for a while. A reusable Lunar and Mars shuttle system is probably a lot easier than actual FSD.

> that it’s further away than anyone thought. No no, only musk was stupid enough to imply level 5 autonomy within x years. Everyone know how hard it is, realtime accurate position, machine perception of roads, & accurate prediction of cars/lorries/other are all very difficult problems. Then to hobble your team by saying "blah blah blah no lidars" because they are expensive and someone from the ML team convinced you t…

Somewhere unrealistic ambition has been mistaken for stupidity. If everyone was “realistic” our progress would move so much slower. Breakthroughs happen because of people like Elon.

Assuming stupidity is a bit over the top.

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#43

Post by cinntaile »

api wrote: post #2

How much could the recent Musk meltdown be related to FSD just not arriving? It seems like we have reached a point after many years of FSD being “next year” when it’s becoming clear that it’s further away than anyone thought. I’ve thought the difficulty was being vastly underestimated for a while. A reusable Lunar and Mars shuttle system is probably a lot easier than actual FSD.

When Andrej Karpathy left earlier this year you knew FSD wasn't happening anytime soon.

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#45

Post by endisneigh »

nullc wrote: post #40
endisneigh wrote: post #16

Mainstream full self driving would just create massive traffic and gridlock - pointless in the end. The induced demand would outweigh the benefits. States are better off acknowledging that sprawling car dependent cities are not sustainable. High frequency busses in the interim with rail transit is the real solution. Current self driving technology plus some key infrastructure changes with dedicated bus lanes and prio…

Interesting point about induced demand. Though it can be easily fixed, particularly given the lack of user control over cars with FSD: For self driving cars all public roads are toll roads.

> Though it can be easily fixed, particularly given the lack of user control over cars with FSD: For self driving cars all public roads are toll roads.

I disagree. Politically it would be hard to convince the majority of people (which would be the default state until some inversion) that a vehicle that is capable of self-driving should have to a surcharge per mile, given that it could also be driven manually. The only recourse would be to make all roads toll roads, which obviously won't happen.

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#46

Post by [deleted] »

v0idzer0 wrote: post #19
KaiserPro wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that it’s further away than anyone thought. No no, only musk was stupid enough to imply level 5 autonomy within x years. Everyone know how hard it is, realtime accurate position, machine perception of roads, & accurate prediction of cars/lorries/other are all very difficult problems. Then to hobble your team by saying "blah blah blah no lidars" because they are expensive and someone from the ML team convinced you t…

Let’s not pretend Apple, Uber, Google and countless others weren’t spending billions trying to make this a reality. They didn’t burn that money because they were smart enough to know it wasn’t going to happen. Everyone thought it was imminent. Many still do.

[deleted]

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#47

Post by lotsofpulp »

mythhouse wrote: post #17

https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billHistoryClient.x... Wow introduced end of feb this year and passed by end of this year. Looking from outside, I am Amazed by the speed of American democracy .

The fact that it took California passing a specific law is ridiculous.

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/topics/truth-advertising/pro...

This was as easy as it gets for the federal government to tell Tesla to drop it, but for some reason neither Dem or Repub administrations are acting on it.

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#48

Post by woofyman »

jaxn wrote: post #20
Retric wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Other companies have cars one public streets without drivers. Calling what current Tesla’s do Full Sell Driving is so misleading it’s probably just fraud.

Is there any consumer car that is anywhere close? My understanding is that no other car has things like automatic lan change and route following. Let alone stopping at stop signs / red lights etc.

Ford blue cruise does automated lane change.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a41117967/ford-bluecruise-...

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#49

Post by endisneigh »

mythhouse wrote: post #17

https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billHistoryClient.x... Wow introduced end of feb this year and passed by end of this year. Looking from outside, I am Amazed by the speed of American democracy .

I can't tell if you're amazed because it's slow or because it's fast.

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#50

Post by ghaff »

v0idzer0 wrote: post #19
KaiserPro wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that it’s further away than anyone thought. No no, only musk was stupid enough to imply level 5 autonomy within x years. Everyone know how hard it is, realtime accurate position, machine perception of roads, & accurate prediction of cars/lorries/other are all very difficult problems. Then to hobble your team by saying "blah blah blah no lidars" because they are expensive and someone from the ML team convinced you t…

Let’s not pretend Apple, Uber, Google and countless others weren’t spending billions trying to make this a reality. They didn’t burn that money because they were smart enough to know it wasn’t going to happen. Everyone thought it was imminent. Many still do.

It's very unclear to me who really thought what.

I'm sure there really were true believers who got sucked in by the rapid advances in ML and figured "How hard can the last 20% be really?"

You had companies that figured they'd better their bases because they could afford to and FOMO.

You almost certainly had some number of cynical grifters pitching a story for their investors that they knew was nonsense.

And you had a lot of people who saw all of the above and figured that it must be all true.

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