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Tell HN: The German job market is crashing

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Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing

#41

Post by Sladik »

OP's disclaimer: I started this hobby project one year ago. The point of this project was and still is to learn about new technologies. Maybe I am lacking the statistical background, or the data since it goes back only 13 months, to make such an statement but when I starting seeing these trends in the number of job posts, I thought that it would be interested to share it in the Hacker News community and get some feedback.

About whether these trends that we see in the graphs are something real or just a data issue like seasonality or a problem with the data sources, I think we will soon know from the mainstream media. As always the time will tell.

Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing

#43

Post by tkiolp4 »

Sladik wrote: post #41

OP's disclaimer: I started this hobby project one year ago. The point of this project was and still is to learn about new technologies. Maybe I am lacking the statistical background, or the data since it goes back only 13 months, to make such an statement but when I starting seeing these trends in the number of job posts, I thought that it would be interested to share it in the Hacker News community and get some feed…

Regardless of the final (statistical) outcome, I think the architecture of your project is impressive. Kudos!

Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing

#44

Post by vernon99 »

snowpid wrote: post #38

For me, the OP's interpretation is very questionable or at least hasty. The first reason that comes to mind is that there is less recruitment at the end of the year. Because in the above statistics (due to lack of data?) only the data within the year is possible, such rhythms are not recorded. I talk to HR people from different companies (in Berlin) from time to time and they still complain about the lack of skilled…

Have you checked the chart linked by OP? It has data for the same period of the last year and there’s no such drop so it disproves the seasonality thesis.

There could be something else of course. But also possible that some companies are being hit by energy crisis.

Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing

#45

Post by djangpy »

My assumption is that we are moving back to a pre-covid buyers market for the tech industry. It did feel like childs play to get a job during covid, from anywhere. I am certainly happy that I found (German) clients and a job during the covid period, and don't have to go looking for them now.

Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing

#46

Post by malteg »

sdevonoes wrote: post #40

Interesting! Are you planning to keep recollecting data for the year 2023? > the major job offer portal in Germany for over one year I hope that's Linkedin. Because if it's another site like Monster, StepStone or similars, I'm afraid the data is probably garbage. I don't know a single engineer in Germany who uses anything but Linkedin (well, many engineers use niche job boards like remoteok, or directly use the compa…

seems stepstone is the only source... perhaps try to compare against "agentur für arbeit", see https://github.com/bundesAPI/jobsuche-api (there are multiple issues with the api - some parts/parameters are broken....)

Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing

#47

Post by TheAlchemist »

Very nice project and presentation deck - well done !

That being said, with the data you have available here, you can’t conclude anything at all - you would need several years of data to rule out seasonalities, and also take into account some external factors influencing it.

Ps. Are you sure you’re not using something like rolling average and you just don’t have the data points (if it’s centered around current date) ?

Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing

#48

Post by omgwtfbyobbq »

vernon99 wrote: post #44
snowpid wrote: post #38

For me, the OP's interpretation is very questionable or at least hasty. The first reason that comes to mind is that there is less recruitment at the end of the year. Because in the above statistics (due to lack of data?) only the data within the year is possible, such rhythms are not recorded. I talk to HR people from different companies (in Berlin) from time to time and they still complain about the lack of skilled…

Have you checked the chart linked by OP? It has data for the same period of the last year and there’s no such drop so it disproves the seasonality thesis. There could be something else of course. But also possible that some companies are being hit by energy crisis.

It may disprove it. Another possibility is COVID affecting the numbers from last year.

I'd like to see monthly numbers for at least a couple political cycles, or better yet for several stock market cycles.

Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing

#49

Post by rognjen »

Since the jobs are scraped and not fetched through an API, I'd also check whether the structure of the site changed in some way.

I'm very suspicious of the data, because a 33% decrease in less than a month is unreasonable. Even at the height of Covid, there wasn't that much of a drop-off.

My money is on the script being broken.

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