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The incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in unvaccinated Covid patients

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

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Re: The incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in unvaccinated Covid patients

#41

Post by stuntkite »

CobaltFire wrote: post #16
stuntkite wrote: post #6

I got OG Covid very early in 2020. I had something like a heart attack about six months later. It has not reoccurred. I suspect I had something kind of like a stroke a bit ago. The event was accompanied with very terrifying and specific neurological event. A loud noise that was only inside my head and unreal "sounding" that worked like a corkscrew from the right side of my head to the front while my vision dimmed. I…

I didn't have the neuro event or symptoms, but the dinner plate and cardio helping sounds awfully familiar. As far as I know I did not contract COVID, however I was part of the early response team for isolation after travel for the US Military so was exposed on several occasions early on and could have been asymptomatic. My first vaccine was a non-event; the second fostered a reaction so bad I almost went to the hosp…

I thought you were another guy and was about to ask you if the test you had was a Videonystagmography.

Thank you for sharing more (probably this was your first post and I missed it) about your story and diagnosis. Seriously. Very helpful.

Re: The incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in unvaccinated Covid patients

#42

Post by brookst »

onos wrote: post #39
capnrefsmmat wrote: post #15

When reading this sentence: > We did not observe an increased incidence of neither pericarditis nor myocarditis in adult patients recovering from COVID-19 infection. you should be careful not to interpret this as evidence of absence. The previous sentence gives confidence intervals: > Post COVID-19 infection was not associated with either myocarditis (aHR 1.08; 95% CI 0.45 to 2.56) or pericarditis (aHR 0.53; 95% CI 0…

You’ve only emphasized one side of the interval, which suggests some bias. Eg you haven’t written out that the other side implies you might have a smaller chance of these issues once you get covid. That said, it probably is reasonable to have as a prior that it’s unlikely that covid would lower your risk of these issues.

Did they not emphasize both sides of the uncertainty?

> the data is statistically consistent with myocarditis being 0.45 times as likely in people with COVID infection, or 2.56 times more likely.

Re: The incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in unvaccinated Covid patients

#43

Post by manwe150 »

antipaul wrote: post #29
capnrefsmmat wrote: post #15

When reading this sentence: > We did not observe an increased incidence of neither pericarditis nor myocarditis in adult patients recovering from COVID-19 infection. you should be careful not to interpret this as evidence of absence. The previous sentence gives confidence intervals: > Post COVID-19 infection was not associated with either myocarditis (aHR 1.08; 95% CI 0.45 to 2.56) or pericarditis (aHR 0.53; 95% CI 0…

The confidence interval is a so-called random variable, which means, given it’s not significant, you actually can’t really interpret it Descriptively, there is a trend, yes. But it can not be interpreted in statistical (inferential) terms, I think.

Right, the parent post was making the same point: the article claims to have shown a lack of statistical correlation, but all they did was show that their study lacked the ability to detect correlation. It is a subtle movement of a few words, but they are important

It can be interpreted in statistical terms. They could use the confidence interval instead to state that the study suggests infection reduces these adverse events by no more than half, nor increases their frequency by no more than triple.

Re: The incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in unvaccinated Covid patients

#44

Post by stuntkite »

heavyset_go wrote: post #24
stuntkite wrote: post #6

I got OG Covid very early in 2020. I had something like a heart attack about six months later. It has not reoccurred. I suspect I had something kind of like a stroke a bit ago. The event was accompanied with very terrifying and specific neurological event. A loud noise that was only inside my head and unreal "sounding" that worked like a corkscrew from the right side of my head to the front while my vision dimmed. I…

> I don't exercise a ton, but do some exercise, especially when the dinner plate flairs up. In general, regular exercise helps strengthen the heart and reduce risks of CVD. If you're generally only exercising when you feel chest pressure and you do have CVD, your heart muscles aren't as strong and strenuous exercise can lead to problems. Going for a walk everyday would be better than exerting yourself irregularly, as…

Thank you for your concern. I do daily exercise. Sometimes more, sometimes less. I know a lot about fitness. I sit for a living. I live a high stress lifestyle (working on that too). I'm not the healthiest person in the world. I have several mental/physical/environmental factors that contribute to that to that. Yes exercise is crucial and very helpful in the short and the long term not just with this but all the other issues I had before and compounding because of this, yes doing more of it would be very helpful, yes I'm working on it. Do you even lift bro?

Re: The incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in unvaccinated Covid patients

#45

Post by anonAndOn »

stuntkite wrote: post #36
anonAndOn wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry about your troubles. I agree with your hypothesis that COVID does more damage when given the right scaffold and that underlying conditions lay the groundwork for lasting damage. Have you considered your problems may be clot related?[0] [0] https://twitter.com/drclairetaylor/status/158936959572682342...

Not just considered, but seems likely. I have had a lot of trouble finding the key pair values with doctors to pursue any treatment down those lines. I also have ADHD and some other issues that make the diligent pursuit of treatment that is met without collaboration to be extremely difficult. I've found that the best way to NOT get treatment is to go into a doctors office with an idea of what might be wrong with me.…

I'm just some random person on HN so please take this with giant heap of salt, but you've described problems in 2 of the 3 major organs in your arterial system (the third is your kidneys). FWIW, I'd encourage a Hematologist to look there.

Re: The incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in unvaccinated Covid patients

#46

Post by CobaltFire »

stuntkite wrote: post #31
CobaltFire wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The actual name of the test I had is Videonystagmography. It identified not just the issue but the actual specific structure that was giving me issues. This has no impact on hearing, so wouldn't be caught by those tests.

Hell yes. This is the exact info I wanted. Thank you.

You are very welcome! I hope it helps you figure it out.

Re: The incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in unvaccinated Covid patients

#47

Post by CobaltFire »

stuntkite wrote: post #41
CobaltFire wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't have the neuro event or symptoms, but the dinner plate and cardio helping sounds awfully familiar. As far as I know I did not contract COVID, however I was part of the early response team for isolation after travel for the US Military so was exposed on several occasions early on and could have been asymptomatic. My first vaccine was a non-event; the second fostered a reaction so bad I almost went to the hosp…

I thought you were another guy and was about to ask you if the test you had was a Videonystagmography. Thank you for sharing more (probably this was your first post and I missed it) about your story and diagnosis. Seriously. Very helpful.

This was my first comment.

Happy to help!

Re: The incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in unvaccinated Covid patients

#48

Post by chiefalchemist »

clairity wrote: post #18
capnrefsmmat wrote: post #15

When reading this sentence: > We did not observe an increased incidence of neither pericarditis nor myocarditis in adult patients recovering from COVID-19 infection. you should be careful not to interpret this as evidence of absence. The previous sentence gives confidence intervals: > Post COVID-19 infection was not associated with either myocarditis (aHR 1.08; 95% CI 0.45 to 2.56) or pericarditis (aHR 0.53; 95% CI 0…

right, i was going to make a similar kind of critique (but probably less lucidly). the effect sizes are tiny and the confidence intervals overwhelm the supposed conclusions. seems to be motivated reasoning rather than impartial science. covid may cause a rise in heart disease in unvaxed individuals relative to vaxed, but this study does nothing to support, and especially doesn't prove, that contention. one thing it d…

> Covid may cause a rise in heart disease in unvaxed individuals relative to vaxed, but this study does nothing to support, and especially doesn't prove, that contention.

The issue that comes to mind for me is there no explanation given on why the unvaccinated were unvaccinated. From what I remember, the jab was not recommended for those with compromised immune system or other similar less-than-healthy conditions.

Without such transparency, it feels like possible apple to orangers comparisons.

Or maybe I'm misreading?

Re: The incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in unvaccinated Covid patients

#49

Post by stuntkite »

anonAndOn wrote: post #45
stuntkite wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not just considered, but seems likely. I have had a lot of trouble finding the key pair values with doctors to pursue any treatment down those lines. I also have ADHD and some other issues that make the diligent pursuit of treatment that is met without collaboration to be extremely difficult. I've found that the best way to NOT get treatment is to go into a doctors office with an idea of what might be wrong with me.…

I'm just some random person on HN so please take this with giant heap of salt, but you've described problems in 2 of the 3 major organs in your arterial system (the third is your kidneys). FWIW, I'd encourage a Hematologist to look there.

Thank you. You might be able to tell the frustration and anxiety this stuff brings me going through it. I appreciate you talking with me about it and you're right. I should ask for a hematologist. Weird that no GP has suggested that, but seriously, you suggestion here might be the key to me living and extra 30 years. Might not, but it's one of the best key/pair value suggestions for treatment path I've heard in a discussion in some time.

Re: The incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in unvaccinated Covid patients

#50

Post by manwe150 »

brookst wrote: post #42
onos wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’ve only emphasized one side of the interval, which suggests some bias. Eg you haven’t written out that the other side implies you might have a smaller chance of these issues once you get covid. That said, it probably is reasonable to have as a prior that it’s unlikely that covid would lower your risk of these issues.

Did they not emphasize both sides of the uncertainty? > the data is statistically consistent with myocarditis being 0.45 times as likely in people with COVID infection, or 2.56 times more likely.

That feels an awkward way to word that claim, since both of those outcomes have mathematically zero chance of being true literally (interpreted as points), or less than 5% total chance of being true (interpreted as areas)

I think the converse statement would have been more strictly true statistically (e.g. that 0.45 is statistically consistent with the data), and more accurately descriptive of what a p-test actually means.

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