Earlier quoted context omitted.
I once read or heard a similar anecdote about Ludwig Prandtl who set up computation method using a room full of people each doing one step of a calculation. I recall it describing a finite element method, but that would predate the origin of FEM in this article by a few decades. Maybe it was just some numerical method.
Huh? Theres's a long history of doing this — 'computers' were people long before they are machines.
Eighty Years of the Finite Element Method
41–47 of 47 posts
Re: Eighty Years of the Finite Element Method
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's probably impossible to accurately simulate the climate of the planet decades into the future. That does not meaningfully detract from the evidence for human caused global warming however.
I have to applaud the subtle elegance of the sarcasm here
Re: Eighty Years of the Finite Element Method
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
For physical processes, you can sometimes lean on conservation laws. Financial, no-arbitrage "laws". Sometimes it can help to run two different models, or different numerical methods, and compare their results. More generally, it's very, very hard. I am fairly sure there are multiple published results in computational fluid dynamics that are subtly wrong.
> I am fairly sure there are multiple published results in computational fluid dynamics that are subtly wrong. I wonder what that means for the accuraccy of the climate models...
Models stem from the academic environment, not the business environment. This means that the models are open-source, so everyone can see what everyone else is doing. And 'everyone' is a pretty large set.
Note that there is no commercial element to any of this, which means there is no incentive to hide problems. It's the reverse: reputation is earned by finding problems, not by hiding them.
A large part of the challenge of climate modelling is the leveraging of increasing computer power to resolve progressively smaller scales of motion, and this uncovers the need to understand those scales in isolation. Modelling is often used at this level also.
None of this is to say that climate models are perfect. They obviously are not. But the system of academic science is very good at improving models and, importantly, exposing their limits. An indication of the latter is the pairing of uncertainties with predictions: a hallmark of this scientific community.
Re: Eighty Years of the Finite Element Method
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
I once read or heard a similar anecdote about Ludwig Prandtl who set up computation method using a room full of people each doing one step of a calculation. I recall it describing a finite element method, but that would predate the origin of FEM in this article by a few decades. Maybe it was just some numerical method.
Huh? Theres's a long history of doing this — 'computers' were people long before they are machines.
Re: Eighty Years of the Finite Element Method
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
Huh? Theres's a long history of doing this — 'computers' were people long before they are machines.
I'm aware of human "computers" but my recollection was that in the case of Prandtl, it was an application FEM. I did not know FEM wasn't developed at that time, as this article shows, so it must have been something else.
Unlike FEM, finite difference methods have been used right since the origins of differential and integral calculus, with Newton and Leibniz.
There are also precursors of the modern FEM, like the Ritz or Galerkin methods, which could have been used by Prandtl.
Re: Eighty Years of the Finite Element Method
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
I once read or heard a similar anecdote about Ludwig Prandtl who set up computation method using a room full of people each doing one step of a calculation. I recall it describing a finite element method, but that would predate the origin of FEM in this article by a few decades. Maybe it was just some numerical method.
I assume it would be a finite differences calculation, which is also very easy to parallelize/vectorize. They solve the same class of problems, but calculations with finite differences don't always converge the way that finite elements do.
Re: Eighty Years of the Finite Element Method
#47My first programming role was on the back of work by an engineer in this article. The core of the solver was a FORTRAN implementation of a paper on p-convergence. It was really amazing seeing our software predict how a small crack in a part of an aircraft would propagate. The 3D model produced matched the photograph shared later. The lead developer (at the time) once said that the biggest software failure we can have…
I know it's not a simple answer, but how would you embed checks to flag or highlight potentially incorrect results to the user?
For starters, some problems do have analytical solutions. Yo can compare a FEM model of these problems with the known analytical solution and see if it's close enough or not. One of them is the elasto-plastic plate with a hole.
You can also run unit tests at the element level.