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The single market is looking wobbly

economist.com

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Re: The single market is looking wobbly

#41

Post by SevenNation »

The article is really about something called the NGEU:

> ... Thus, as the pandemic raged, a novel form of European solidarity was agreed in the form of a €750bn bail-out fund, Next Generation eu (ngeu). The money is a form of redistribution: it is borrowed by the eu, but will in effect be paid back by its richest members while being doled out to its poorest. This gave fiscal capacity for southern Europeans to stimulate their own economies in the recovery.

I can't imagine something like this is on the table now. Germany's balance of trade, peaking at 2.5 trillion euro in 2015 is now almost zero. That's fine for a country that issues its own currency, but not one like Germany that doesn't. The days of German largesse are in the rear-view-mirror now. Europe will need to find a way to cope without its economic Willy Wonka.

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/balance-of-trade

Also, the title in the article is:

> A German aid package revives calls for solidarity with poorer EU countries

which is not as sensational as the HN title.

Re: The single market is looking wobbly

#42

Post by chalst »

luckydata wrote: post #13
chrisseaton wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what motivation the British could have for saying that the EU's single market is looking wobbly?

I don't know about the economist but there's certain stipulations that went into the foundation of the single currency that favored Germany heavily, and Germany behaved the whole time like it didn't happen. Most of the european resentment comes from that fact. Most southern european countries were taken for a ride during those negotiations, and have paid (and continue to) a steep price. I was a strong believer in the…

The article is about the single market, which long predates the single currency.

The Economist in the 90s was pro single market: https://www.economist.com/leaders/1997/03/13/single-market-s...

Re: The single market is looking wobbly

#43

Post by mytailorisrich »

manu_te wrote: post #25
luckydata wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about the economist but there's certain stipulations that went into the foundation of the single currency that favored Germany heavily, and Germany behaved the whole time like it didn't happen. Most of the european resentment comes from that fact. Most southern european countries were taken for a ride during those negotiations, and have paid (and continue to) a steep price. I was a strong believer in the…

France hasn't really benefited much. Italy has been the talking point for a long time and rightly so for the amount of debt plus the chronic political instability, but France is very much on a similar decline path. Edit: cheap Russian gas + high productivity + political stability + undervalued currency (the Deutsche mark would have been way stronger than the euro) is what fueled German dominance in Europe. Italy/Fran…

France has a talent for self-harm although they are not the only ones.

Ultimately, Germany succeeded better because they acted better and more productively.

Re: The single market is looking wobbly

#44

Post by YawningAngel »

chrisseaton wrote: post #8
secondcoming wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And?

I wonder what motivation the British could have for saying that the EU's single market is looking wobbly?

What motivation could we have? Most British people you talk to on the internet are distinctly unhappy about Brexit and, if anything, are motivated to talk up the single market

Re: The single market is looking wobbly

#45

Post by inglor_cz »

yrgulation wrote: post #39
nalaz wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The periphery is and will always be poor because of cultural problems. People make the politicians, not the other way around.

Is porn banned in germany or why do people enjoy poverty porn so much? The periphery is anything but poor. There are gaps between eu countries but east south and west are consistently ranking high in term of economic development. Anaemic growth doesnt equal poverty.

My wife speaks Spanish fluently and we often travel to Spain.

Spain as such may not be exactly poor, but quite a lot of people are living in very subpar conditions. Andalusia in particular has a lot of visibly poor natives. Even African migrants do not want to stay there and if they manage to cross the Strait of Gibraltar, they immediately travel north to France/Britain/Germany.

Re: The single market is looking wobbly

#46

Post by yrgulation »

ricardobayes wrote: post #38
inglor_cz wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany was a huge winner from introduction of the Euro. Some other countries, especially the Latin bloc, cannot cope with the common currency. (Ironically, it was the German economists who used to be very skeptical against the common currency and were loud about it.) At the end of the day, the single market will only be popular if growth and prosperity are shared across the continent. If the economic periphery plagu…

That's an outdated view, Spain is the fourth biggest economy in Europe, and are net contributors into the EU budget.

There was a DW article that presented spain as one of europe’s poor countries. Cant find the link unfortunately. I swear these people get a boner when throwing around the word poor.

Re: The single market is looking wobbly

#47

Post by chrisseaton »

YawningAngel wrote: post #44
chrisseaton wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what motivation the British could have for saying that the EU's single market is looking wobbly?

What motivation could we have? Most British people you talk to on the internet are distinctly unhappy about Brexit and, if anything, are motivated to talk up the single market

> Most British people you talk to on the internet are distinctly unhappy about Brexit

Most voted for it.

If you're in a vacuum chamber that's your problem.

Re: The single market is looking wobbly

#48

Post by dfawcus »

luckydata wrote: post #13
chrisseaton wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what motivation the British could have for saying that the EU's single market is looking wobbly?

I don't know about the economist but there's certain stipulations that went into the foundation of the single currency that favored Germany heavily, and Germany behaved the whole time like it didn't happen. Most of the european resentment comes from that fact. Most southern european countries were taken for a ride during those negotiations, and have paid (and continue to) a steep price. I was a strong believer in the…

Note that it is a "single currency", not a "common currency". In the same way that the "single market" is different from the prior "common market".

So if the UK had joined at the inception, it would have started as a common currency, but when the UK decided not to join, it reverted to the preferred form of some of the other members, namely the "single currency".

I imagine that the rules would have been different with a common currency, possibly with the national currencies not replaced, and still operating in tightly tracked bands; but I guess the UK fate there was written when it dropped out of the ERM as part of "Black Wednesday", caused by it entry peg being overvalued.

So a common currency may well have allowed for more north vs south flexibility...

Re: The single market is looking wobbly

#49

Post by inglor_cz »

ricardobayes wrote: post #38
inglor_cz wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany was a huge winner from introduction of the Euro. Some other countries, especially the Latin bloc, cannot cope with the common currency. (Ironically, it was the German economists who used to be very skeptical against the common currency and were loud about it.) At the end of the day, the single market will only be popular if growth and prosperity are shared across the continent. If the economic periphery plagu…

That's an outdated view, Spain is the fourth biggest economy in Europe, and are net contributors into the EU budget.

Go to Sevilla or Malaga and look around. Houses have old facades, people drive old cars, pavements have been last repaved 20 years ago and meeting a highly educated beggar is a common occurrence. That is not how a wealthy community looks like.

Spanish economy may be nominally big, but random folk in the streets do not seem well off. The contrast to, say, Austria or Denmark, where most of the population seems to live just fine, is big.

My friend, a nurse in Madrid, makes less than 1000 euro net. She and her son live in a small Franco era apartment where one of the tiny rooms does not even have a window.

Re: The single market is looking wobbly

#50

Post by yrgulation »

inglor_cz wrote: post #45
yrgulation wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is porn banned in germany or why do people enjoy poverty porn so much? The periphery is anything but poor. There are gaps between eu countries but east south and west are consistently ranking high in term of economic development. Anaemic growth doesnt equal poverty.

My wife speaks Spanish fluently and we often travel to Spain. Spain as such may not be exactly poor, but quite a lot of people are living in very subpar conditions. Andalusia in particular has a lot of visibly poor natives. Even African migrants do not want to stay there and if they manage to cross the Strait of Gibraltar, they immediately travel north to France/Britain/Germany.

Oh please. Thats like saying california is poor because san francisco has homeless people. Just because people dont drive fancy cars or homes arent refurbished in a region where it rarely rains it doesnt mean they are poor. Even east eu is rich compared to most of the world. I agree with you on slow growth but eu countries are anything but poor. Mismanaged yes. Poor not so much.
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