It's interesting to think about an alternative history where Russia joined NATO.
As Putin did want to:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-s...
Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
41–50 of 123 posts
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
First thing to do when threats are made is to decide whether they are credible. The sinking of the Black Sea Fleet would be a huge escalation and a declaration of war, not to mention not a smart thing to announce your plan in advance. To me it's the same as when Russia makes big threats. It's a war of words but with no plan for actual action. Edit: It seems to me that the US are trying to corner Russia into escalatio…
Remember the story in Cuba decades ago? If USSR did not back off, US would have. This would be exactly the same story.
If the USSR had not backed off the US would not have attacked Russia.
Of course the message now and then is that they are prepared to make Russia's life much worse but threats of war are bluff.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#43"I view it as highly unlikely ( Whereas the affects of nuclear on his own country will make him a hero? Sorry, it's just lose-lose.
What Putin accepts or not is irrelevant - it's what the Russian state will accept that counts. Putin is dead in 5-15 years no matter what. Russia should,could,will have 100's of years left if it starts to act 1/2 way sensibly.
So why risk getting jailed or even killed instead of just waiting for a couple of years? And you don't have to clean up someone else's mass neither.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or “Russian oligarchs put plutonium in Putin’s coffee”. How long will the rich and poor of Russia put up with the cost of this war?
> Or “Russian oligarchs put plutonium in Putin’s coffee”. Saying that about the US president who was bankrolling a trillion dollars-plus invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan would have put one in jail, interesting to see that when applied to another country is now perfectly ok. Relevant Whitest Kids U' Know sketch [1] [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eg3_kUaYFJA
I very much doubt that. Maybe an awkward conversation with the Feds would've ensued while they ascertained if you had access to plutonium, much like the awkward conversation I had with Police when my estranged step-brother was threatening to shoot politicians, and they were trying to ascertain if I'd give him access to my firearms. (Fuck no, obviously.)
Given the hyperbole that US politics has descended into, if your theory was true, half of US political Twitter would be in gaol already.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#45Another possible outcome, not present on the OP's state chart, is "USSR": Russia collapses for internal reasons.
There are news about an ongoing coup in Russia, albeit only in tabloids for now. We'll see. https://www.thedailybeast.com/volodymyr-zelensky-warns-of-li... https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20034143/chilling-signs-putin-... Yet another one: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/8/7370930/
your first link is an article from 2021 about ukraine's president.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#46It's interesting to think about an alternative history where Russia joined NATO. As Putin did want to: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-s...
> did not want his country to have to go through the usual application process and stand in line “with a lot of countries that don’t matter
> if and when Russia’s views are taken into account as those of an equal partner
Equal to who? To Putin this means equal to all others combined. Certainly not those other countries that don’t matter.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#47Another possible outcome, not present on the OP's state chart, is "USSR": Russia collapses for internal reasons.
There are news about an ongoing coup in Russia, albeit only in tabloids for now. We'll see. https://www.thedailybeast.com/volodymyr-zelensky-warns-of-li... https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20034143/chilling-signs-putin-... Yet another one: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/8/7370930/
Can't believe 7 months into the war people still buying this kind of news. It looks like an intellectual no-fly zone has been established over the collective mind
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#48There's a lot of rhetoric and bluff. I don't believe for a second that Nato would directly strike Russia if Russia used tactical nukes in Ukraine. That would indeed be a declaration of all out war against a cornered country which only remaining strength at the moment is its nuke stockpile, I.e. it would be madness and Armageddon would indeed have been triggered by Nato, not Russia. Rather, the West should deny Russia…
> The West The interests of the USA and Europe are not the same.
Indeed. In this case, US would want the war to drag for decades without further escalating. Europe, however, would want the war to end as they are in deep sh*t themselves and there is no reason to continue fighting a war to benefit US.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
The west would generally need to pursue a severe escalation in response to a nuclear threat otherwise it sets a terrible precedent. I think something on that scale, but well below a nuclear response, is likely.
The question here is: what nuclear threat? Russia is not threatening Nato. There are talks that Russia might use tactical nukes in Ukraine. I don't know how likely that is and that would indeed be a bad precedent, but are you going to declare war on Russia over that? That does not seem sensible. I don't know what game the US are playing, and have been playing for years now (and I suspect it is partly anti-China) but…
Establishing a norm of using nuclear weapons in any context is unacceptable. The west has made their position on this very clear. If Russia were to use nuclear weapons and the west did not respond, Russia would effectively be told its fine and would continue to do so.
If the west believes Russia will not destroy every living thing on earth including themselves and will instead back down, its rational to escalate.
> I don't know what game the US are playing, and have been playing for years now (and I suspect it is partly anti-China) but it is dangerous, as dangerous as Russia's game.
This is a very silly statement. They're playing geopolitics, as they always have been. Refusing to play geopolitics simply means you're losing at geopolitics.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think it's more likely that he retires to the country. Precedent matters if you may be on the other end of it in months/years. Also retirement to the country is not forever, which again is useful in political struggles to come.
This is exactly why dictators never retire. They would always be a thorn in the new rulers side.
Often it's because the constitution of their country states that a sitting President can't be brought up on charges - Mugabe is a very obvious example.
But don't worry, Yeltsin had Putin's back...
> President of Russia, ceased to carry out its mandate, has immunity. They can not be held criminally or administratively liable for acts committed by them during the execution of the President's powers