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How random can you be? (2019)

expunctis.com

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Re: How random can you be? (2019)

#41
post #23

The prediction is deterministic, so you can adapt to it and "beat" it every time. Though intuitively and without looking at the implementation, I obviously am not a good adversary: Lowest I reached was 43% after ~50 inputs, stopped at 47% after 103. With just tapping "randomly", it was looking good until I got 52% at 250 inputs. From there on it went steep downward: 59% at 500 but 57% again at 1000 (I changed how I t…

6 bit maximum period lfsr is probably a nearly perfect adversary for it.

Re: How random can you be? (2019)

#42
At the heart of Bells inequality in physics is the assumption of free will, that the experimentalist is "free" to choose a detector setting.

Yet when faced with the task of actually generating random numbers, humans fail miserably. Some how the failure to generate random numbers isn't seen as a lack of free will by anyone.

But in the context of quantum physics, the experimenters "freedom" to do something most humans can't actually do is a given, and denying it is "super determinism" and anti science.

It's funny that physicist take the freedom of their random choices as a given when a simple experiment shows they don't have such freedom.

Re: How random can you be? (2019)

#43

What's the easiest pseudo-random sequence one can calculate mentally in order to beat this?

There's a deterministic sequence that will beat it every time, which you can calculate as follows.

  - it assumes your first selection was preceeded by 5 consecutive 'left's
  - each press, look at the last 5 bits you selected (for your 1st 5 selections, 
 include those 'virtual' 5 lefts at the beginning). If you have not entered that sequence of 5 before, select 'right'.   If you have entered that sequence before,  pick the opposite of whatever you selected last time as your next press.
RRRRRRLRRRLRLRLLRRRRLLRRLRRLRLLLRRRLLLRLRRLLRLRLRRRRRRLRRRLRLRLLRLL...

Re: How random can you be? (2019)

#45

A decent strategy is to use the results of the last click to choose your next click. Win money, click right, lose money, click left.

Using a variation of this:

```

for(let j=0; j

  window.captureBtnLeftFunc({preventDefault: () => {}})
  
  for(let i=0; i {}})
      
    } else {
      
      window.captureBtnLeftFunc({preventDefault: () => {}})
      
    }
    
  }
  
}

```

actually got me a pretty linear upward win line for thousands of simulated clicks

Re: How random can you be? (2019)

#46

It's incredibly easy to cheat this since you actually, in real-time, can see the feedback of how random it thinks you are.

And how exactly do you use this information?

Do a pattern. Once you see that the algorithm guesses correctly often do a different pattern. Repeat. It's really easy to get around 50% this way.

Re: How random can you be? (2019)

#47
post #29

This doesn’t really test randomness. It appears that the guessing output is deterministic using your inputs as it’s inputs and you could figure out as many consecutive inputs you felt like to produce a specific outcome. For instance 6R1L3R inputs forces the game to “guess” wrong each time. It’s not guessing. This isn’t a random input, but it’s perfectly within a reasonable random distribution. Equally random is 10L,…

If you can predict bits with greater than 50% accuracy then you have not got a truly random set.

Re: How random can you be? (2019)

#49
There is an example in Mathematica [1] that illustrates a similar point using Rock-Paper-Scissors game. It uses a very simple strategy to predict human opponent [2], but it appears to work well. (Although, at the moment the demonstration does not seem to be working at all (I tried it in Firefox and Chrome)).

[1]. https://demonstrations.wolfram.com/RockPaperScissorsWithAIPl... [2]. https://blog.wolfram.com/2014/01/20/how-to-win-at-rock-paper...

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