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What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

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Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#41

Post by somenameforme »

franknstein wrote: post #36
pxeger1 wrote: post #29

Knowing very little about chess, what is the current state of the best chess AI compared to human players like Magnus Carlsen?

Magnus Carlsen: 2864 Elo Stockfish: 3585 Elo "Elo suggested scaling ratings so that a difference of 200 rating points in chess would mean that the stronger player has an expected score (which basically is an expected average score) of approximately 0.75, and the USCF initially aimed for an average club player to have a rating of 1500." I guess that means that Magnus has expected score of roughly 0.25^((3585 - 2864)/2…

ELO is dependent upon the pool of players that one plays in. Engine ELO's have no relationship to human ratings because no humans play computers under normal conditions. For an example of this phenomena taken to extremes, Claude Bloodgood [1] was a strong amateur who ended up as officially rated as one of the top players in the world (and #2 in the US) simply because he was only playing against a pool of other prison inmates who were in turn playing only against each other. So all his rating reflected was his relative strength in the prison pool.

Computers are definitely much stronger than humans, but not 3600 better. Magnus would certainly be able to eek out plenty of draws, if not only because white can create "simplified" (as a euphemism for dead) positions in just about any variation if he really wants. And Magnus regularly plays these sort of positions literally at the level of supercomputers.

I'd also add that much of the dominance of computers is not based just on raw ability alone, but more psychological issues. Humans can become tilted, intimidated, frustrated, tired, and so on. One of the last major human vs computer events was Kramnik vs Fritz. Kramnik, in a relatively simple position, ended up blundering mate in 1 with plenty of time on his clock. It's unlikely he would have ever made the same mistake against a human. It's just very difficult to get in the same mindset when playing against a human as when playing against a computer. Chess, in spite of being a game of complete information, is still extremely influenced by psychology.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_Bloodgood

Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#42

Post by ht85 »

Asraelite wrote: post #21
epups wrote: post #15

I think the 5% odds are an underestimation, because Carlsen will change his focus now and won't spend time preparing for the World Championship. He will likely also prioritize risky wins vs safer draws.

> He will likely also prioritize risky wins vs safer draws. It seems kind of unfair that this is the strategy needed to increase ELO. If the safest strategy to guarantee a win in a tournament is winning a single game and drawing the rest, then you shouldn't be penalized for that in your ELO, versus playing risky and winning more but also losing some.

You aren't penalized, playing safely will maximize your chance of winning and having a higher rating.

Maximizing your rating on the other hand will require you to play more and more risky games.

Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#44

Post by soperj »

trashtester wrote: post #30
epolanski wrote: post #26

I think one major piece is consistently missed in those articles. Yes, the chances of him hitting 2900 do not depend only on his performance against other players, but from their elo as well. If the following 25 players in the world where all 2800+ Carlsen would already be 2900+. Thus, Carlsen's best chances largely depend on elo inflation to widen the elo distribution itself. One example of this: Louis de Bourdonnai…

I would also argue that there is a source of ELO deflation going on. As the top level players all get better, theory evolves, people generally play better chess. A player with a rating of 2750 today might have beat Kasparov in his prime, simply because chess has evolved. In a way, it's similar to sports. Plenty of people today might have beat Carl Lewis at 100m 30 years ago, but they would probably not be considered…

> In a way, it's similar to sports. Plenty of people today might have beat Carl Lewis at 100m 30 years ago, but they would probably not be considered greater athletes.

Same with Lance Armstrong...

Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#45

Post by kzrdude »

ritchiea wrote: post #28
shawabawa3 wrote: post #20

How much would get gain for a win vs a say 1800 rated player? Could he game the system by doing 1000 rated matches against poor players until he hits 2900?

Technically he could, I believe FIDE has a minimum rating increase of 1 point for the winner of a game with > 400 ELO advantage on their opponent. But if he broke 2900 by playing in minor tournaments against low rated amateur opponents no one would take it seriously that he broke 2900. Realistically many, maybe even all of the top players could push for record ELOs by only playing against players well below their lev…

So.. he has rating 2861 now and 39 points left to 2900.

In theory he plays one 2500 player every month, and wins, for 39 months in a row and we're done? I'd be impressed if he won all of them (he doesn't usually do that.)

His most recent game on 2700chess is a draw vs 2490 rated player Schitco.

Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#47

Post by somenameforme »

andrepd wrote: post #33
pxeger1 wrote: post #29

Knowing very little about chess, what is the current state of the best chess AI compared to human players like Magnus Carlsen?

No humans have won against a top engine in over a decade, and they almost surely never will.

This is somewhat misleading because there have also been no classical time control human-computer matches since 2006 when Kramnik played against Fritz. That match more or less ended interest in these matches.

Every game was drawn until Kramnik randomly blundered a trivial mate-in-1 in a simple position. That mistake was undoubtedly driven by psychological reasons. Playing against an engine is nothing like playing against a human and it's difficult if not impossible to put oneself in the proper mindset to play well.

The following games were then also drawn until Kramnik decided to do the chess equivalent (when playing against a computer) of going for a hail mary, with black, in the final game to try to even the match score. Suffice to say, that failed and the match ended as a generally disappointing, for everybody, 4-2.

There have been a variety of gimmicky matches since (fast time controls, various odds matches, etc), but nothing serious.

Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#49

Post by mda »

franknstein wrote: post #36
pxeger1 wrote: post #29

Knowing very little about chess, what is the current state of the best chess AI compared to human players like Magnus Carlsen?

Magnus Carlsen: 2864 Elo Stockfish: 3585 Elo "Elo suggested scaling ratings so that a difference of 200 rating points in chess would mean that the stronger player has an expected score (which basically is an expected average score) of approximately 0.75, and the USCF initially aimed for an average club player to have a rating of 1500." I guess that means that Magnus has expected score of roughly 0.25^((3585 - 2864)/2…

Winning chance is basically 0.0% against current strong engines for a human. There are possible draw lines but if engine is configured correctly draw chance is also 0.0%

Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#50

Post by mda »

epups wrote: post #15

I think the 5% odds are an underestimation, because Carlsen will change his focus now and won't spend time preparing for the World Championship. He will likely also prioritize risky wins vs safer draws.

Considering there are quite a few players from young generation who reached 2700+ recently I don't see him reaching his goal and even 5% looks optimistic.
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