Google had no revenue for years. But turned out to be one of the best investments of all time.
To figure out how they are doing, the first thing I would look at is a chart of Helium's usage growth.
Helium has revenues of $6.5k/month after $365M investment from A16Z
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Re: Helium has revenues of $6.5k/month after $365M investment from A16Z
#42I could not, reading this stuff, figure out what any of it was, or was for, or for who, or why I should care about anybody's revenue.
Re: Helium has revenues of $6.5k/month after $365M investment from A16Z
#43Google had no revenue for years. But turned out to be one of the best investments of all time. To figure out how they are doing, the first thing I would look at is a chart of Helium's usage growth.
On the other hand, giving away 365M as cash gifts could probably drive incredible usage growth numbers. Not to say that’s what they are doing but it also isn’t the whole picture.
Re: Helium has revenues of $6.5k/month after $365M investment from A16Z
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've done my due diligence, there is no future in web3. I don't disparage early VCs who invested in blockchain startups because it is their job to put money into companies that could be revolutionary. However, the revolution has failed to materialize. While it may not be obvious to all it should become clearer in the coming months. When I say 'fraud' I don't mean juicing the numbers or asking forgiveness instead or p…
web3 is going to thrive whether you like it or not. Primarily because of three reasons: - Greed. Its absurdly easy to make a ton of money very fast in crypto. As long as that's possible, money will keep pouring into the system. - Gambling. The global gambling industry is half a trillion every year. Even if you think crypto has no fundamentals and is akin to gambling, it still represents a massive market. Opening a 50…
> long as that's possible, money will keep pouring into the system
This was an easy-money phenomenon. We have another rates announcement today. I expect crypto to respond like the clockwork leveraged risk asset it models.
> global gambling industry is half a trillion every year
This is a good analogy. It’s one I hear in legislative and regulatory halls in the U.S. and Europe, the money centres crypto depends on for its legal demand.
The VCs largely have downside protection. Retail with get screwed but it’s a risk asset; they always get screwed late cycle and we have resolution mechanisms for that. Crypto company employees, however, stand to be boned.
It’s unclear where the legal risk winds up. My bet is the first layer that has not been talking to lawyers so far. That includes dumb executives and naïve employees working for savvy ones.
Re: Helium has revenues of $6.5k/month after $365M investment from A16Z
#45Google had no revenue for years. But turned out to be one of the best investments of all time. To figure out how they are doing, the first thing I would look at is a chart of Helium's usage growth.
Google had a real use case and solved a problem from day one. What's Heliums use case?
Re: Helium has revenues of $6.5k/month after $365M investment from A16Z
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
Every single one of these web3 companies is going bust. They could all be built without tokens or a blockchain if they wanted to. There are only two things propping up the entire crypto economy, VC funding and fraud. Once the VC money leaves the ecosystem the dominoes will fall.
Yet some VCs are still plowing into web3. There was an article today about how Moellis was getting into Web3 companies. I'm genuinely curious what their thought process is. I tend to be in the camp that web3 is just a bunch of hot air seeing how cryptos been around for quite a while now with few use cases, but I also give benefit of the doubt there could be something there given the nature of tech.
> I'm genuinely curious what their thought process is.
The thought process for VCs investing in crypto is simple: they get a huge discount on the tokens in the raise that they can turn around and dump on retail a few months later for huge returns. Instead of waiting 10+ years for a traditional exit, they can get liquidity in a few months.
As Chamath admitted on the podcast, even when they're on a vesting schedule they can sell the claims to future vesting prior to actually receiving the tokens.
Re: Helium has revenues of $6.5k/month after $365M investment from A16Z
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yet some VCs are still plowing into web3. There was an article today about how Moellis was getting into Web3 companies. I'm genuinely curious what their thought process is. I tend to be in the camp that web3 is just a bunch of hot air seeing how cryptos been around for quite a while now with few use cases, but I also give benefit of the doubt there could be something there given the nature of tech.
Moelis advise on M&A though. They get fees from companies doing steps with each other, which they do in both good times and bad (aka restructuring). I didn't think it meant Moelis was investing in those companies. It's like a lawyer getting into crypto, they do contracts for the companies, they're not buying tokens for themselves.
The ones who made fortunes during the American gold rush were the people selling shovels, not the ones panning for gold.
Re: Helium has revenues of $6.5k/month after $365M investment from A16Z
#48Look into SoRare’s volume. They raised over $500m. Volume is now lower than it was way back in 2020. The crypto down rounds are going to be hilarious. Note to investors: if you’re investing in crypto projects, carefully consider the ponzinomics and the vesting schedule. You want your unlocks to happen in the middle of the bullrun when exit liquidity is ample. And also remember that whatever you might think of as “nor…
> crypto down rounds are going to be hilarious
That’s optimistic. Best case is orderly resolution and/or fire sales to Wall Street. Worst case: retail investors lose money while executives and senior employees see prosecution.
Re: Helium has revenues of $6.5k/month after $365M investment from A16Z
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
Every single one of these web3 companies is going bust. They could all be built without tokens or a blockchain if they wanted to. There are only two things propping up the entire crypto economy, VC funding and fraud. Once the VC money leaves the ecosystem the dominoes will fall.
The older protocols that were built in the depth of 2018-19 bear markets will survive. Many of them are also doing wonderfully well in terms of revenue. COMP, MKR, AAVE, CRV all make a ton in revenue and have a well-defined product-market fit. Crypto projects are tough to value. Their sheer global scale means that they can ramp up revenue and even profits extremely fast. StepN, a move-to-earn app reportedly made $120…
> That might not be sustainable, but what business wouldn't give an arm and a leg to make $120M profits in just one year of operation?
$120M in profit-profit? Or $120M in revenues dumping tokens on retail booked as profit?
Re: Helium has revenues of $6.5k/month after $365M investment from A16Z
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've done my due diligence, there is no future in web3. I don't disparage early VCs who invested in blockchain startups because it is their job to put money into companies that could be revolutionary. However, the revolution has failed to materialize. While it may not be obvious to all it should become clearer in the coming months. When I say 'fraud' I don't mean juicing the numbers or asking forgiveness instead or p…
web3 is going to thrive whether you like it or not. Primarily because of three reasons: - Greed. Its absurdly easy to make a ton of money very fast in crypto. As long as that's possible, money will keep pouring into the system. - Gambling. The global gambling industry is half a trillion every year. Even if you think crypto has no fundamentals and is akin to gambling, it still represents a massive market. Opening a 50…
> If "web2" hadn't shut off its own users from any semblance of ownership in the platforms, or had done more for privacy, web3 would have died in 2017.
Honestly nobody cares about these things. This is just a narrative that was grafted onto Web3 after the fact.