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Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen

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Re: Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen

#41

That’s an interesting data point. makes me wonder what other unconventional metrics could be considered to get a temperature on our economy.

A friend used to work for Korn Ferry, a publicly-traded headhunting firm. She said that their stock was a leading indicator of economic trends because firms halt executive recruiting efforts as they can see warning signs for their business. This happens before the clients issue quarterly revenue guidance that makes their expectations explicit.

Re: Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen

#42
post #31
post #8

Why do people borrow money to buy a car? Why not save money, maybe invest in something safe(ish), and buy your car in cash, preferably used? I get it that people get emotional about cars, but good heavens, this impulse puts you in the hole for years. It's almost as bad as cheating on your wife (and far, far worse than cheating on a gf).

> Why do people borrow money to buy a car? Because new cars are nice, and people are bad at time value of money? Also I think it's partially a cultural thing, very few of my friends and family buy brand new cars but I know some people would never even consider a second-hand vehicle. > It's almost as bad as cheating on your wife (and far, far worse than cheating on a gf). What a curious point for comparison! Although…

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Re: Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Car financing is a good way to build credit before buying a home. I regret that my credit score actually went down when I paid off my car loan early. The rules are really weird here. Using some credit is better than using no credit if you think you might need credit in the future (mostly to buy a house). Also, buying a new car is much less of a hassle than buying a used one. The price difference between used and new…

> Car financing is a good way to build credit before buying a home. I've heard people say this, but it's never made sense to me and sounds like something the loan industry has convinced people of just to sell more loans. Is it actually true? Every time I've gotten a mortgage, they seem to just care about my income and whether I've had any missed payments on credit cards or other bills before. And credit scores aren’t…

Past (Good) payment history on an installment loan is a reasonable indication of likely future payment on an installment loan.

For sure, current income is a more important predictor of future income and future sufficient income is a predictor of future payment.

Installment loans are a decent part of credit scores, but mortgage lenders look into the details, so credit score isn't everything to them like it can be for smaller loans.

Re: Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen

#44
post #8

Why do people borrow money to buy a car? Why not save money, maybe invest in something safe(ish), and buy your car in cash, preferably used? I get it that people get emotional about cars, but good heavens, this impulse puts you in the hole for years. It's almost as bad as cheating on your wife (and far, far worse than cheating on a gf).

Also, cars are freaking expensive. An "affordable" new EV is nearly $50,000 USD. For most people, saving that much is impossible to do in a reasonable amount of time; Especially if you live in a place where rent is 60% of your income. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-least-affordable-state-...

Re: Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen

#45
post #8

Why do people borrow money to buy a car? Why not save money, maybe invest in something safe(ish), and buy your car in cash, preferably used? I get it that people get emotional about cars, but good heavens, this impulse puts you in the hole for years. It's almost as bad as cheating on your wife (and far, far worse than cheating on a gf).

People cannot forgo having a car for the time it would take to save up the cash.

Yeah, I’m not buying it. It’s not a choice between having a tricked out 2022 Lexus that costs $70k and no car at all. It’s the choice between a 2005 beater Toyota with 200k miles on it and no car.

Once you have that beater, you can start saving for something nicer. Find a make and model with decent reliability history that has hail damage or minor collision damage. It’s not hard to do.

If you can’t scrape together $2k to buy that beater then you have no business owning a car, period.

Re: Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen

#46
post #8

Why do people borrow money to buy a car? Why not save money, maybe invest in something safe(ish), and buy your car in cash, preferably used? I get it that people get emotional about cars, but good heavens, this impulse puts you in the hole for years. It's almost as bad as cheating on your wife (and far, far worse than cheating on a gf).

If you have good credit (>760) you can get 0% interest or close to it loans pretty regularly if you wait. At that point there is no reason for me not to take on the loan and just setup autopay.

what planet are you on? my credit meets your criteria and I am regularly asked to finance for 12% or more by everyone, including the bank and credit union where I store my money.

Re: Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People cannot forgo having a car for the time it would take to save up the cash.

Yeah, I’m not buying it. It’s not a choice between having a tricked out 2022 Lexus that costs $70k and no car at all. It’s the choice between a 2005 beater Toyota with 200k miles on it and no car. Once you have that beater, you can start saving for something nicer. Find a make and model with decent reliability history that has hail damage or minor collision damage. It’s not hard to do. If you can’t scrape together $2…

Ever drive a car like the one you're describing? It's a rough situation to be in to have to put 1k into a car worth 2k to keep it going, or to have your car break down and force you to call out from work on short notice. That's far from free.

Re: Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen

#48
post #8

Why do people borrow money to buy a car? Why not save money, maybe invest in something safe(ish), and buy your car in cash, preferably used? I get it that people get emotional about cars, but good heavens, this impulse puts you in the hole for years. It's almost as bad as cheating on your wife (and far, far worse than cheating on a gf).

A combination of liquidity, lack of discipline, or something in the middle. As others have pointed out below, some people don't have enough cash to buy a car when they need one. Other people have enough money to buy a car, but wish to purchase a nicer car because of vanity or enjoyment reasons. And other people are in the middle: they could afford to buy a low-end vehicle in cash, but they realize that the transactio…

We’re talking about about a guy who only has $5,000 on hand to buy the first car. Those transaction costs are dwarfed by interest payments.

I highly doubt his time spent at the tag office and at the dealer buying those cars is going to be worth more than ~$1,500, which is roughly what you’d pay in interest for a 5 year note at 3% interest.

Re: Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People cannot forgo having a car for the time it would take to save up the cash.

Yeah, I’m not buying it. It’s not a choice between having a tricked out 2022 Lexus that costs $70k and no car at all. It’s the choice between a 2005 beater Toyota with 200k miles on it and no car. Once you have that beater, you can start saving for something nicer. Find a make and model with decent reliability history that has hail damage or minor collision damage. It’s not hard to do. If you can’t scrape together $2…

Imagine the myriad of scenarios that exist between your two extremes.

You know you need this car for 10+ years, you want it to suit you and your family, so you get a 20k loan and get the one you that will be best now. Why waste your time and money with the beater? You would spend morein the long run than the cost of the interest on the loan (essentially the cost of purchasing now not later)

Debt is a calculated risk, with a clear cost, and plenty of people are fully capable of doing the math.

Re: Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A combination of liquidity, lack of discipline, or something in the middle. As others have pointed out below, some people don't have enough cash to buy a car when they need one. Other people have enough money to buy a car, but wish to purchase a nicer car because of vanity or enjoyment reasons. And other people are in the middle: they could afford to buy a low-end vehicle in cash, but they realize that the transactio…

We’re talking about about a guy who only has $5,000 on hand to buy the first car. Those transaction costs are dwarfed by interest payments. I highly doubt his time spent at the tag office and at the dealer buying those cars is going to be worth more than ~$1,500, which is roughly what you’d pay in interest for a 5 year note at 3% interest.

Sales tax alone almost hits this number, at least in high-tax states like CA. The problem is that you're paying sales tax with each car purchase, so if you buy the three cars I mentioned, you pay $400, $800, and $1600 (sum: $2,800) in sales tax with those purchases. If you just buy one $18,000 vehicle, you pay $1,400 in sales tax.

Factor in the time spent selling the vehicles (or getting screwed by the dealer on trade-in value), and it's much easier to see why financing a single more-expensive purchase could make financial sense.

Of course, this doesn't apply in states with low/no sales tax.

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