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Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

nature.com

41–50 of 86 posts

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#41
post #38
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And yet a single Police incident gone wrong will completely overshadow the reality of this. that's because when the police kill people, there are no repercussions for them, no matter how much obvious bias, incompetence, disregard for human life, and malice is apparent in their activity. police can literally murder people on a whim and 99% of the time not even be suspected of any crime much less prosecuted. The Geor…

>police can literally murder people on a whim and 99% of the time not even be suspected of any crime much less prosecuted Same with medical professionals. Medical errors kills over 250k people each year in the US. It generally isn't criminal if they make a judgement that results in someone's death. There's been a number of serial killers in medicine because we give medical professionals the benefit of the doubt due t…

> Medical errors kills over 250k people each year in the US.

Indeed, and it doesn't show up on the CDC's leading causes of death list, even though it should rank in third place.

> Analyzing medical death rate data over an eight-year period, Johns Hopkins patient safety experts have calculated that more than 250,000 deaths per year are due to medical error in the U.S. Their figure, published May 3 in The BMJ, surpasses the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC’s) third leading cause of death — respiratory disease, which kills close to 150,000 people per year.

> The Johns Hopkins team says the CDC’s way of collecting national health statistics fails to classify medical errors separately on the death certificate.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/media/releases/study_su...

Personally, I think unchallenged hero worship of medical professionals has something to do with it. Similar to the way widespread [albeit less universal] hero worship also shields police.

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#42
post #38
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And yet a single Police incident gone wrong will completely overshadow the reality of this. that's because when the police kill people, there are no repercussions for them, no matter how much obvious bias, incompetence, disregard for human life, and malice is apparent in their activity. police can literally murder people on a whim and 99% of the time not even be suspected of any crime much less prosecuted. The Geor…

>police can literally murder people on a whim and 99% of the time not even be suspected of any crime much less prosecuted Same with medical professionals. Medical errors kills over 250k people each year in the US. It generally isn't criminal if they make a judgement that results in someone's death. There's been a number of serial killers in medicine because we give medical professionals the benefit of the doubt due t…

>we have to hold them to realistic standards.

Yes, absolutely. That's what needs to start happening with regard to police. You've understood perfectly.

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When the police start enforcing minor infractions, they get called out for bias too, because the fines and lost work hours to misdemeanor jail time hit the people in those communities "disproportionately". Then there is the revolving door issue we are seeing when DAs are soft on minor infractions, or law makers don't want to spend the money on them in the criminal justice system, so it doesn't make sense for the cops…

They do hit disproportionately. If you work a low-end shift job and miss a shift, you're likely to get fired almost immediately, or put on some sort of suspension, or otherwise punished via poor shift assignments and the like. At the very least, you lose income for the shift, and that is likely a substantial amount of money for you. The "court fee" is a substantial amount of money to you. You end up with a public def…

You know what also hits poor people disproportionately? Being the victim of 'petty' crime.

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#45

The Police seems to be in an impossible situation: if they don’t try to fight crime in a minority neighbourhood then they are “racist” (focusing on the rich neighbourhoods). If they do try to fight crime in a minority neighbourhood then they are also “racist” (for “targeting” specific races/cultures). It is especially difficult if they try to fight crime in a violent dangerous minority neighbourhood where every routi…

>Imagine being a police officer risking your life every single day. Knowing that the next person you stop might try to do his/her best to kill you. While also knowing that any mistake you make will be headline news around the world. It’s an impossible situation.

Defender problem. Just like how pen testers are insufferably smug that throwing random input at your endpoint causes unexpected problems. Nevermind that building secure endpoints is harder than building random fuzzers.

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#46
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Admit only minority people into the Police force. Problem solved. If a Policeman kills minority unlawfully then it's just minority on minority crime so nobody will care.

Half the officers charged over Freddie Gray's death were black. No one was less mad over it because of that. The system can be racist even if its constituents aren't. It shouldn't be a new or unfamiliar idea to anyone here that complex systems can have unexpected outcomes, biases, and emergent properties.

Top ranking guy was white though? Right?

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#47
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Admit only minority people into the Police force. Problem solved. If a Policeman kills minority unlawfully then it's just minority on minority crime so nobody will care.

Half the officers charged over Freddie Gray's death were black. No one was less mad over it because of that. The system can be racist even if its constituents aren't. It shouldn't be a new or unfamiliar idea to anyone here that complex systems can have unexpected outcomes, biases, and emergent properties.

No post body was provided.

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#48
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Admit only minority people into the Police force. Problem solved. If a Policeman kills minority unlawfully then it's just minority on minority crime so nobody will care.

Minority police shoot members of their own minority more often than whites though, so this policy would likely mean more dead black men https://www.rutgers.edu/news/bad-policing-bad-law-not-bad-ap... That's the data, not my opinion.

Yes, but fewer cities would burn as a result.

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#49
post #18

It seems likely that police have divested from minority communities, which I agree is a genuinely racist outcome. There are complications, though. In the 90s, leadership figures in minority communities rightly called out under policing as a serious issue that hurt their communities and needed addressing. Nowadays enforcement actions, although increasing overall quality of life and decreasing violence and premature de…

divest is synonymous with defund, no?

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#50
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Admit only minority people into the Police force. Problem solved. If a Policeman kills minority unlawfully then it's just minority on minority crime so nobody will care.

Minority police shoot members of their own minority more often than whites though, so this policy would likely mean more dead black men https://www.rutgers.edu/news/bad-policing-bad-law-not-bad-ap... That's the data, not my opinion.

I didn't mean it would solve the problem of Police killing minorities, just a problem of public caring about it.
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