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Tesla Lays Off Hundreds of Autopilot Workers in Latest Staff Cut

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Re: Tesla Lays Off Hundreds of Autopilot Workers in Latest Staff Cut

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla P/E is at 94, Ford is at 4, so they are overvalued by quite a lot. The interest rates will likely reach 3% by the end of the year, and may need to go all the way to 8% to have a meaningful effect on the inflation. Every measurable economic metric suggests we are rolling full speed into a recession. And driving your old car for another year or two instead of upgrading to that nice luxury EV is one of the first t…

The Fed can't easily raise rates all the way up to 8%. The higher rates affect the government just as much as you buying a new home or taking out a loan, and the government has a shitload of debt it has to keep refinancing. "But with help from the Treasury and from Social Security’s actuaries, I’ve come up with a reasonable estimate of that added interest cost. By my math, the Fed’s higher rates will increase the fed…

Well, the Fed has a clearly stated statutory mandate of "promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate longterm interest rates".

Whether pursuing this mandate inconveniences the govt or not should not be a concern (at least in theory).

Re: Tesla Lays Off Hundreds of Autopilot Workers in Latest Staff Cut

#42
post #5

Does anyone know why Tesla is laying off so agressively? While they are likely overvalued post-pandemic... their financial position appears solid even if the stock fell by 50x. I doubt any cuts could yield the type of profitability that wall street expects at the current valuation.

These are not the kind of cuts you make because you have a bad feeling. These are the kinds of cuts you make because you're seeing orders fall off a cliff. I suspect that in particular Tesla is seeing erosion in their Cybertruck pre-orders given that Ford and Rivian have beaten them to market and both those products are drawing rave reviews.

This is Musk. It totally could be he's making these cuts because he has a bad feeling. This isn't Volkswagen were everything is decided by committee.

Re: Tesla Lays Off Hundreds of Autopilot Workers in Latest Staff Cut

#43
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are a on the low end of buyers, and there are a lot of them. But it's also not the most profitable segment. Tesla has been selling cars as fast as they can build them, until that changes I'm not going to fear another competitor. Part of the reason Ford and others can even compete is that Tesla open sourced their patents. Ford and other's electric cars are being built on the house that Tesla built.

Hold on. No one is using Tesla's open patents because it would require them to open up all of their patents in return. What's your source Ford or others have used them?

why would they have to open up all their patents in return? Tesla never named that as a stipulation. It's not like this is a GPL license

https://www.vennershipley.co.uk/insights-events/does-teslas-...

Re: Tesla Lays Off Hundreds of Autopilot Workers in Latest Staff Cut

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are not the kind of cuts you make because you have a bad feeling. These are the kinds of cuts you make because you're seeing orders fall off a cliff. I suspect that in particular Tesla is seeing erosion in their Cybertruck pre-orders given that Ford and Rivian have beaten them to market and both those products are drawing rave reviews.

This is Musk. It totally could be he's making these cuts because he has a bad feeling. This isn't Volkswagen were everything is decided by committee.

I don't think you fully appreciate how massive volkswagen is, as an organization.

There is literally no place for whims and feelings at a company that big.

Re: Tesla Lays Off Hundreds of Autopilot Workers in Latest Staff Cut

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is Musk. It totally could be he's making these cuts because he has a bad feeling. This isn't Volkswagen were everything is decided by committee.

I don't think you fully appreciate how massive volkswagen is, as an organization. There is literally no place for whims and feelings at a company that big.

> I don't think you fully appreciate how massive volkswagen is, as an organization. There is literally no place for whims and feelings at a company that big.

I do, I worked for VAG during Dieselgate and got a first hand look at the sheer monstrosity of a Megacorp that it is when dealing with the processes, and actually it has a long history of doing just that. In fact the way they got the engineers on board for the cheat device wasn't through a committee or board, it was upper management intimidating engineers to comply by way of threatening their continued employment there.

Furthermore, they could have gotten away with it after the first alarms were sounding off that they were being investigated, but they decided to keep doing it anyway.

It's really eye opening after having gone through the chaos of it all it first hand working within the TDi buy back program and dealing with Bosch and VW corporate in the early phases of the program, while doing a customer facing role and then reading Jack Ewig's book [0] now.

As for Tesla lay offs, they do this when they expand their lineup, it's like a calibration thing at this point.

Right after Tesla model 3 roll out which failed to meet its targets in '17 [1] which incidentally was days after my first round of interviews at Fremont they started to lay people off. These layoffs extended to 2018 ultimately led to shedding off 9% of total workforce by 2018 [2] when M3 ramp up was the only thing that could stop the never ending hemorrhaging that was likely to bankrupt Tesla if they didn't. I know this because that was the time that they asked me if I was still interested in the role and if I'd want to re-apply and take another round of interviews. I declined and told them I'd made efforts since then to make my way to SpaceX instead, the recruiter understood and kindly wished me well.

0: https://www.amazon.com/Faster-Higher-Farther-Volkswagen-Scan...

1: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/tesla-firings-former-and-cur...

2: https://text.npr.org/619426602

Re: Tesla Lays Off Hundreds of Autopilot Workers in Latest Staff Cut

#46
post #5

Does anyone know why Tesla is laying off so agressively? While they are likely overvalued post-pandemic... their financial position appears solid even if the stock fell by 50x. I doubt any cuts could yield the type of profitability that wall street expects at the current valuation.

These are not the kind of cuts you make because you have a bad feeling. These are the kinds of cuts you make because you're seeing orders fall off a cliff. I suspect that in particular Tesla is seeing erosion in their Cybertruck pre-orders given that Ford and Rivian have beaten them to market and both those products are drawing rave reviews.

There is a 6-9 month waiting period to receive a Model Y. More likely is that Musk is desperately focusing on factory output because demand is overwhelming supply.

Re: Tesla Lays Off Hundreds of Autopilot Workers in Latest Staff Cut

#47
post #5

Does anyone know why Tesla is laying off so agressively? While they are likely overvalued post-pandemic... their financial position appears solid even if the stock fell by 50x. I doubt any cuts could yield the type of profitability that wall street expects at the current valuation.

These are not the kind of cuts you make because you have a bad feeling. These are the kinds of cuts you make because you're seeing orders fall off a cliff. I suspect that in particular Tesla is seeing erosion in their Cybertruck pre-orders given that Ford and Rivian have beaten them to market and both those products are drawing rave reviews.

> because you're seeing orders fall off a cliff

Any evidence or are you just making up things? Because that is literally the opposite of pretty much everything we know about Tesla orders.

> Cybertruck pre-orders given that Ford and Rivian have beaten them to market and both those products are drawing rave reviews.

That makes no sense. Cybertruck pre-orders going away (if that is case, and I question that) would not impact its current financials.

Re: Tesla Lays Off Hundreds of Autopilot Workers in Latest Staff Cut

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well if I buy a Ford and not a Tesla, then Ford will presumably make some money from me and Tesla won't make any. I'll give it to Tesla (and Musk really) that they really mainstreamed the electric car by making it a luxury/halo type product, but it looks to me like they're losing a lot of their first-mover advantages now and they'll probably be losing some margin. Also their CEO went kinda nuts which didn't help the…

You are a on the low end of buyers, and there are a lot of them. But it's also not the most profitable segment. Tesla has been selling cars as fast as they can build them, until that changes I'm not going to fear another competitor. Part of the reason Ford and others can even compete is that Tesla open sourced their patents. Ford and other's electric cars are being built on the house that Tesla built.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Lays Off Hundreds of Autopilot Workers in Latest Staff Cut

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but will Ford make money off of it? That's to be seen. Tesla is the Apple of car makers and they've grown aggressively. Ford is only going to be replacing existing cars with new electric cars, which are probably not going to be very profitable in the short term. Meanwhile, Tesla is very profitable over the last few years and is very profitable on a per car basis. Not to mention the other tech that they are work…

Well if I buy a Ford and not a Tesla, then Ford will presumably make some money from me and Tesla won't make any. I'll give it to Tesla (and Musk really) that they really mainstreamed the electric car by making it a luxury/halo type product, but it looks to me like they're losing a lot of their first-mover advantages now and they'll probably be losing some margin. Also their CEO went kinda nuts which didn't help the…

> then Ford will presumably make some money from me

That's not at all certain when buying and EV.

> but it looks to me like they're losing a lot of their first-mover advantages now

That's what people have been saying since 2014 and Tesla has just continued to grow.

> and they'll probably be losing some margin

Given that they have improved prices quite a bit and still have lots of order backlog, I would suspect the opposite.

Maybe total operational margin will be down because of Berlin and Texas factories, but automotive margin is unlikely to go down.

Re: Tesla Lays Off Hundreds of Autopilot Workers in Latest Staff Cut

#50

> Teams at the San Mateo office were tasked with evaluating customer vehicle data related to the Autopilot driver-assistance features and performing so-called data labeling. My sympathies with the folks laid off, but do American firms still do data labeling in-house? I assume most of it is out-sourced via Scale or other vendors to eventually India, Vietnam etc.

Tesla insourced all of this. They have their own labeling tools and they are labeling in 360% video.
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