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Unexpected solar weather is accelerating satellites' orbital decay

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41–50 of 106 posts

Re: Unexpected solar weather is accelerating satellites' orbital decay

#41
post #2

Is the word "plummet" really appropriate here? They're talking about falling at a rate of 0.001mph, which is much faster than expected but hardly a "plummet."

Wow, so you are telling me satellites are falling to earth and burning up in the atmosphere? No? Oh.. ok.

No? Yes. They always do this. The only question is how fast. They'll fall and burn eventually.

Re: Unexpected solar weather is accelerating satellites' orbital decay

#42
post #13

Too many HN threads just seem to be people arguing about the appropriateness of the title. The article addresses a significant and interesting issue that's going to have major negative effects on business models, as well as some positive effect on space junk. I think they did a decent job, at least for an article intended for the general public, and I'm glad I read it. And yes, the word "plummet" is an exaggeration.…

And most aerospace threads are a shitshow, people who have no idea what they are talking about getting uppity about words which are basically appropriate in this circumstance. Going from 2 km/year to 20 km/year orbit decay is indeed quite significant and could cause a satellite to be lost many years early, the last stage of which is burning up in the atmosphere which is quite plummetous.

Re: Unexpected solar weather is accelerating satellites' orbital decay

#43
post #14

I am thinking about a commercial data product to address the situational awareness need here. It feels daunting though, because customers would be the likes of SpaceX and other intimidating entities. If anyone has thoughts, or is interested, please send me an email. (Contact info in profile!) Thanks.

Commercial SSA is getting to be a busy... space. Have you seen what others are doing in that area? How does your idea differ?

Re: Unexpected solar weather is accelerating satellites' orbital decay

#44
post #25
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well now that we've determined that plummet maybe isn't the right word to use, shall we discuss the fact that satellites are unexpectedly falling from the sky in yet another climate change that we had not predicted?

While solar phenomena influences climate, this aspect is not human induced. We have put artificial satellites up there, in earth orbit, but they are not causing solar eruptions or solar flares. We don't understand solar "climate" enough to say that it's changing (cycle frequency, amplitude, etc).

> We don't understand solar "climate" enough to say that it's changing (cycle frequency, amplitude, etc).

We certainly do know a fair amount about the sun's "climate": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle

The sun has an 11-year solar cycle where each cycle has a period of low and high sunspot activity and currently we are just starting Cycle 25 with a corresponding uptick of solar flare activity.

Re: Unexpected solar weather is accelerating satellites' orbital decay

#45
post #14

I am thinking about a commercial data product to address the situational awareness need here. It feels daunting though, because customers would be the likes of SpaceX and other intimidating entities. If anyone has thoughts, or is interested, please send me an email. (Contact info in profile!) Thanks.

With NASA and related space weather data products and internal tracking of satellites being a core competence of companies like SpaceX, I don't necessarily see where a commercial data product would fit or provide value. Unless you're actually going to launch orbital assets and have some significant scientific work, I'm just not sure.

Some competition: http://acswa.us/about/members.html

Re: Unexpected solar weather is accelerating satellites' orbital decay

#46
post #2

Is the word "plummet" really appropriate here? They're talking about falling at a rate of 0.001mph, which is much faster than expected but hardly a "plummet."

Yes, orbit decay having gone up by a factor of ~10 is indeed plummeting. You park things in low earth orbit so that they don't stay up forever and indeed come down in reasonably small human-scale timeframes. Usually on the time scale of decades, sometimes more, sometimes less. If you designed a satellite to stay up for 10 years, it'll suddenly only be able to stay up a year, that's the scale of these things. Again it…

I think the primary objection is that to the vast majority of people 'plummet' implies the satellite is suddenly and violently falling from the sky - it's the kind of word people would describe an airplane crash with.

However unless the author happens to know a lot about orbital mechanics (or they've played Kerbal Space Program) they probably just picked an expressive word for the sake of a compelling article rather than something that would give a better picture to the layperson.

Re: Unexpected solar weather is accelerating satellites' orbital decay

#47
post #2

Is the word "plummet" really appropriate here? They're talking about falling at a rate of 0.001mph, which is much faster than expected but hardly a "plummet."

They also say Starlink fully lost 40 satellites to solar weather (were decelerated rapidly enough to burn up in the atmosphere, before their orbits could be rescued). There's a range of outcomes. Thread about that: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30267587 (488 comments)

For those who don’t click through to the other thread, I’d say that solar weather contributed, but the root cause was more an overzealous safe mode induced by the operations team that didn’t leave time to recover. A better operations plan would’ve shortened the safe mode duration to ensure that they attempted to raise their orbit even if it meant deploying during the solar event. Letting safe mode destroy the satellite to mitigate a probabilistic risk is just bad planning. Take the chance and deploy anyways and hope you get lucky.

Re: Unexpected solar weather is accelerating satellites' orbital decay

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, orbit decay having gone up by a factor of ~10 is indeed plummeting. You park things in low earth orbit so that they don't stay up forever and indeed come down in reasonably small human-scale timeframes. Usually on the time scale of decades, sometimes more, sometimes less. If you designed a satellite to stay up for 10 years, it'll suddenly only be able to stay up a year, that's the scale of these things. Again it…

I think the primary objection is that to the vast majority of people 'plummet' implies the satellite is suddenly and violently falling from the sky - it's the kind of word people would describe an airplane crash with. However unless the author happens to know a lot about orbital mechanics (or they've played Kerbal Space Program) they probably just picked an expressive word for the sake of a compelling article rather…

It's a dumb objection. A mission manager was quoted using the word "diving".

It isn't the journalist but the nitpicking commentors who are clueless. The headline accurately enough conveys what is happening and the article articulates it well. Orbital mechanics isn't intuitive enough for there to be perfect fit words given human experience, human timescales, "plummet" is fine.

Re: Unexpected solar weather is accelerating satellites' orbital decay

#49
post #36
post #13

Too many HN threads just seem to be people arguing about the appropriateness of the title. The article addresses a significant and interesting issue that's going to have major negative effects on business models, as well as some positive effect on space junk. I think they did a decent job, at least for an article intended for the general public, and I'm glad I read it. And yes, the word "plummet" is an exaggeration.…

"But that isn't a big deal." It's clickbait. I appreciate people pointing out clickbait. I think a lot of others do as well; it's why they read the comments on an article before the look at the article. Had the story been titled "Solar Weather Causes Unexpected Satellite Orbit Decay" or some other non-clickbait thing I'd have read it without looking at comments first. I'm actually interested in solar weather due to i…

I don't appreciate it when the whole comment section of a substantive article is complaints about the headline. Maybe we should just have a way for people to privately message the moderators proposing a headline change to correct a misleading headine, and do that instead. Then the comment section could talk about the article instead of the headline.
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