41–50 of 65 posts
No way it blows up. Too many people have a vested interest in keeping it alive. Tether probably could have blown up years ago. At this point, there are definitely unseen and unknown backers who would prevent it.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> “The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” I'm pretty sure if they had damning evidence, a single hedge fund could single-handedly force the market to collapse in a couple weeks. Keep in mind hedge funds can manage billions of dollars, cryptocurrency market caps are manipulated and the true order book depth is much smaller, and many cryptocurrency people are trading 100x leveraged perpetual…
> I'm pretty sure if they had damning evidence, a single hedge fund could single-handedly force the market to collapse in a couple weeks. Exactly, like they did with GME. Oh wait.
As much as I have always had zero faith in Tether since the beginning I've also been reading about how it's going to blow up for about just as long. Here is an article from 5 years ago https://hackernoon.com/what-will-happen-when-the-shit-hits-t...
Enron had fraudulent books for over a decade. When I heard that all of Tether's accountants were from the Cayman Islands it reminded me of how Enron managed to convince Arthur Andersen to help them cook the books.
At the same time if HN had been around for Enron and year after year month after month there was a post about how Enron was going to collapse for being fraudulent eventually it 1) stops being interesting and devolves into "Enron haters" vs "Enron supporters" in the comments as everything useful has been said years ago 2) starts getting more "they've said that for the last 5 years they must just be wrong" reactions than actually having any positive or actionable impact on the situation.
There are so many interesting things to discuss about Tether, for instance, I would like to know the insides of how Tether is providing shadow banking to crypto exchanges and how does it mean for future scenarios
Anyone has anything shareable?
No way it blows up. Too many people have a vested interest in keeping it alive. Tether probably could have blown up years ago. At this point, there are definitely unseen and unknown backers who would prevent it.
I think that’s probably true for some amount of correction, but presumably there’s some amount where the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze anymore, right? A quick google search says there’s 14b tether in circulation - if that’s true and it falls 50%, who is going to put in multiple billions to try to prop it up?
> if that’s true and it falls 50%, who is going to put in multiple billions to try to prop it up?
Anyone who has information on the backing assets. If Tether embezzled or lost 30 billion and were able to buy back all USDT at 50 cents, they would make billions in profit as well as erase that shortage.
HN posters have successfully predicted 9 out of the last 0 Tether blow ups. More seriously, it's mostly seething while reposting the same stuff with this article potentially holding the record for being short enough to not even repeat most of the usual let alone add anything compared to the pages and pages of previous posts on the topic[0]. Which doesn't mean it won't blow up, just that those discussions are particul…
> HN posters have successfully predicted 9 out of the last 0 Tether blow ups. People predicting stock market declines have thus far been predicting something which declines and then eventually bounces back. This will not happen to Tether - when it blows up, like Mt. Gox, or a host of other crypto scams have - it will not be coming back. As someone else here said, markets can remain irrational longer than you or I can…
That may be happening to Tether now. Take a look at Tether's market cap chart.[1] Click on Overview->Market cap-> 1 month. You can see the cashouts. Between 5:09 AM and 5:14 AM on May 27, 2022, the market cap of USDT suddenly dropped by $750 million dollars. There have been five huge cashouts like that since May 13th. About 12% of Tether has been cashed out in the last 3 weeks.
This never happened to Tether before. Until now, market cap was "line goes up". Biggest previous drop in market cap was about 1% in mid-2021.
So, how long can Tether pay out 4% of its market cap per week? Looks like we're going to find out.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If tether goes down, so does bitcoin. This post may as well be about bitcxoin going to zero then
>If tether goes down, so does bitcoin. Doubt that. I’m sure almost anyone here could wow me with technical reasons why they are correlated… In the end because this is all illusionary and not backed by anything tangible, it’s faith-based speculation. When Tether pops, Bitcoin probably goes up. No one will have learned any lessons, just that they picked they wrong one, but this one over here is “safe”. It’s all what pe…
As much as I have always had zero faith in Tether since the beginning I've also been reading about how it's going to blow up for about just as long. Here is an article from 5 years ago https://hackernoon.com/what-will-happen-when-the-shit-hits-t...
“The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” It’s hard to predict when things are going to fall apart. Archegos capital worked for quite a while until one day it didn’t.
Tether and other stable coins came along and said: we'll keep $1 USD for every token we have, so you don't need to cash out your crypto as fiat to see how much it's worth — just trade it for a stable coin!
So, Bitcoin isn't actually worth $30k+, it's worth $30k+ in stable coins because that's what it's traded in. It's only connection to fiat is stable coins.
if ($1 !== $1) // i.e. Tether is a scam that's not fully backed
All crypto will experience a MASSIVE crash
When the fiat inflows stop and instead try to reverse, it's going to be wild.
As much as I have always had zero faith in Tether since the beginning I've also been reading about how it's going to blow up for about just as long. Here is an article from 5 years ago https://hackernoon.com/what-will-happen-when-the-shit-hits-t...
The thing about bubbles is being small allows you to pull in fools at a rate sufficient to maintain your price. Once you're large, you can run out of fools since you're a large percent of a given market. That said, my vague understanding of Tether is that since it's completely opaque and basically rigged, rather than collapsing entirely, the controllers of the "currency" can make it gradually harder for just select c…
If Tether wants to maintain the peg they have to keep letting people redeem as long as there's more sellers than buyers.