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Inflation is differential and restructuring (2021)

economicsfromthetopdown.com

41–50 of 215 posts

Re: Inflation is differential and restructuring (2021)

#41
post #15

If this perspective carries the day - which is plausible - then all it will reveal is that basically nobody in the voting public should care about inflation: 1) Inflation is not a useful metric for financial planning. If your investments are keeping pace with inflation then you have completely failed to position yourself correctly relative to the massive money creation going on. The gold price trend is posting consis…

I find it interesting that house prices are kept out of inflation. But if you are forced to rent forever due to unaffordable housing, in your later years you might be paying $3000/m rent instead of $0/m mortgage interest. But that fact is conveniently left out.

37% of the 65% of homeowners own their home free & clear.

That's 24%. You're obviously at a huge advantage if you're in this 24% - but it's kind of like saying that the top 10% of people have >$1M in assets (they also happen to predominantly be old).

Re: Inflation is differential and restructuring (2021)

#42
post #15

If this perspective carries the day - which is plausible - then all it will reveal is that basically nobody in the voting public should care about inflation: 1) Inflation is not a useful metric for financial planning. If your investments are keeping pace with inflation then you have completely failed to position yourself correctly relative to the massive money creation going on. The gold price trend is posting consis…

I find it interesting that house prices are kept out of inflation. But if you are forced to rent forever due to unaffordable housing, in your later years you might be paying $3000/m rent instead of $0/m mortgage interest. But that fact is conveniently left out.

Article you may enjoy:

Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

https://fullstackeconomics.com/why-the-government-took-home-...

Re: Inflation is differential and restructuring (2021)

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it interesting that house prices are kept out of inflation. But if you are forced to rent forever due to unaffordable housing, in your later years you might be paying $3000/m rent instead of $0/m mortgage interest. But that fact is conveniently left out.

37% of the 65% of homeowners own their home free & clear. That's 24%. You're obviously at a huge advantage if you're in this 24% - but it's kind of like saying that the top 10% of people have >$1M in assets (they also happen to predominantly be old).

Surely the people who are leveraged with a fixed rate mortgage at an even bigger advantage to those who own a home outright? (debt will get inflated away over time)

Re: Inflation is differential and restructuring (2021)

#44
post #5

The non-uniformity of inflation is interesting and has been brought up by many economists recently. I wonder if eventually the Fed will try to track inflation as a vector rather than a single number.

What does tracking inflation as a vector mean? My memory of vectors was that they are a direction and a magnitude. But I don’t see how this relates to inflation.

If we measure a basket of 1,000 products that is direction and magnitude in a 1,000 dimension space. Those are not the important things of that vector. What's important is that we have 1,000 measurements of inflation for 1,000 different products. One of the points of the article is that it could be possible to collapse that vector into a single scalar number as governments do, but it usually isn't because the variance between each component is too big and makes that number meaningless.

And yet it's useful to be able to tell my customers that I have to raise my fee because of a 6% inflation instead of "gas went up 20%", "but clothing went down 5%."

Re: Inflation is differential and restructuring (2021)

#45
post #24
post #15

If this perspective carries the day - which is plausible - then all it will reveal is that basically nobody in the voting public should care about inflation: 1) Inflation is not a useful metric for financial planning. If your investments are keeping pace with inflation then you have completely failed to position yourself correctly relative to the massive money creation going on. The gold price trend is posting consis…

Not sure why your reference looks at hourly wage and not total compensation. Seems like a selective choice of metrics. "But between 1979-2019, whilst net productivity has continued to increase by an expected 70%, hourly compensation in the country is less than a fifth of that at just 12%."

I assume because hourly wage is easier to track and provides a more direct comparison.

What difference would switching to total compensation make?

Re: Inflation is differential and restructuring (2021)

#46
post #5

The non-uniformity of inflation is interesting and has been brought up by many economists recently. I wonder if eventually the Fed will try to track inflation as a vector rather than a single number.

What does tracking inflation as a vector mean? My memory of vectors was that they are a direction and a magnitude. But I don’t see how this relates to inflation.

a multi-dimensional vector i presume the OP meant - one value per item.

you can still measure the distance between such a vector (even though you can't really visualize it). This distance is then the change in inflation, and can be compared across years.

Re: Inflation is differential and restructuring (2021)

#47

At the risk of going off-topic: I'd also like someone to write a similar blog post providing a convincing explanation of why the national debt supposedly isn't wrecking the US's future big time. To me it absolutely is, because you can only keep borrowing money and paying the (increasingly large) interest on it for so long. Eventually it'll exceed your revenue and you have no choice but to print money and hyperinflate…

They say that Economics is the science on mistaking stocks for flows, and this is a very good example.

Interest is denominated in $/month. Loans are denominated in $. Mixing those up is like mixing up miles per hour and miles. They are different units of measurement - the first is a flow, the second is a stock.

Remember that bankers are people too, and they eat just like you do. Therefore interest is nothing more than the wages of bankers. They take those wages and they spend them back with firms in return for food and shelter. The firms then pay the banks with the money they earn from bankers. Round and round the money goes. Bankers earn on the turn as they say.

The same applies to government interest. It is paid on bonds and reserves to financial institutions who pay people a pension from them. Those pensioners then spend that income, which generates additional taxation (because that's how percentages work), which will then balance the amount government paid in the first place.

Therefore the tax that offsets the government interest payments comes from paying the interest payments.

It's just a way of stimulating output, or redistributing it away from the producers to pensioners and other people with money.

In fact all government spending creates the additional tax that offsets it - to the last cent for any positive tax rate. It's a simple geometric progression. The only question is when. If somebody doesn't spend all their income, then taxes are not collected from the spending, earning and re-spending process that would otherwise occur.

And that's what creates the 'deficit' - people deciding not to spend all they earn.

Also known as saving for a rainy day.

There is no need for government to pay interest at all. It's entirely a policy choice. People can then choose to continue to save for no reward, or they can spend the money, which will stimulate economic output.

Re: Inflation is differential and restructuring (2021)

#48
post #22
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Inflation isn't a fair metric for referencing if wage raises Arguably this is the only one that the voting public really do care about - the relation between wages and the cost of living is one that historically produces unrest, and that's because it's not related to abstract figures but to each individual's cash flow which they experience directly. It's also one where decades of political effort have gone into mak…

> The alternative to printing money would be to raise money through taxation, which is also politically infeasible. The scary thing, looking back on the 20th century, is that is probably what was said in a lot of places that then went through extreme political turmoil. There have been a lot of instances where the only politically feasible road was printing money. That is typically the introduction in stories that end…

> said in a lot of places that then went through extreme political turmoil

Well, yes; inequality and shortages that the elite refuse to address lead to a lot of the classic Latin American revolutions, as well as the earlier Chinese revolution and Russian revolution. This is the concept referred to as "redistribution is insurance against pitchforks".

> wilful ignorance on the part of the elites

This really characterises a lot of the post 2016 era. The amount of incredibly stupid and incoherent nonsense. But no matter how comfortable the narrow elite are, no matter how much surplus money is sloshing around for crazy startup projects and asset price inflation, they're not going to tolerate higher taxes.

(I hereby propose the least politically feasible project ever: confiscatory taxes on billionaires, but the money is simply deleted in an effort to bring down the money supply)

Re: Inflation is differential and restructuring (2021)

#49

At the risk of going off-topic: I'd also like someone to write a similar blog post providing a convincing explanation of why the national debt supposedly isn't wrecking the US's future big time. To me it absolutely is, because you can only keep borrowing money and paying the (increasingly large) interest on it for so long. Eventually it'll exceed your revenue and you have no choice but to print money and hyperinflate…

"because you can only keep borrowing money and paying the (increasingly large) interest on it for so long."

Not if you are the US. Because the US $ is a reserve currency needed by the rest of the world (primarly for oil, since most of the oil is still priced in US $). So, what can US do? Well, it can print the $ indefinitely because the countries of the world will always need it to run their economies.

But, lets say that the need for US $ inside a country dissapears. What then? Then, that country is placed under sanctions by the collective West (examples Iran, North Korea and the Russian Federation) or, as was in the cases of Iraq and Libya, bombed to submission.

Which brings us to the answer why the US economy is staying afloat despite an enormous national debt and the obvious "living beyond one's means" budget.

Re: Inflation is differential and restructuring (2021)

#50
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why your reference looks at hourly wage and not total compensation. Seems like a selective choice of metrics. "But between 1979-2019, whilst net productivity has continued to increase by an expected 70%, hourly compensation in the country is less than a fifth of that at just 12%."

I assume because hourly wage is easier to track and provides a more direct comparison. What difference would switching to total compensation make?

Because non-wage compensation has made up a bigger and big part of total compensation - healthcare, 401k match, fringe benefits, bonuses, etc.

My dad worked as a teacher and got a super fat pension - that’s not included.

Total compensation has risen much more than hourly wage.

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