41–50 of 512 posts
“if you buy before May this year, you get a guaranteed ~8.5% return over the next 12 months” I don’t think this is correct. They’re going to re-calculate the interest rate 6 months from May and it could be less than ~8.5%. So you’re really just guaranteed ~4.25% for half the year.
There are blogs that explain it in detail.
Not sure how it works in the US, but in my country the inflation-indexed bonds are still subject to the capital gains tax, so they offer a true hedge only up to a certain level. Obviously still better than regular bonds in this regard.
Worse, subject to income tax.
Munis are usually exempt from both but pay lower rates accordingly.
Zero risk loan and guaranteed interest rate doesn't mean no risk the government won't default on repayments. If that happens, it is likely to get back the full capital + interest, but at that point in a currency worth initial capital - interest. Lending to a government is only safe when trust of that government is high. At the moment we are at a all time low since the 30s with regards to the US government treasury.
This is a loan to the currency issuer so it’s effectively the same risk as holding cash.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, so for the next 8-10 weeks until the refund is processed he's effectively loaned the government his money.
But not all of it at 0% interest as he seems to think.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The I-bond guarantees a return rate at inflation or higher. You're saying you expect negative inflation this year?
I think they are saying official inflation figures can be manipulated to be below real inflation
As of today, Lumber is down 30% year on year. Those same people seem to no longer talk about lumber as it doesn’t suit the narrative.
Alternative title: "I purposefully tried to make a transaction that breaks the rules, it didn't end well."
I'm missing the logic of the second 10k. He had already exceeded the limit. Why did he think that doing it again would change the outcome? It looks to me like he was going to get the extra $25 returned to him and have 10k in bonds. It's definitely vague though.
He didn't understand the email, and thought that buying the bonds wasn't successful.
8-10 _weeks_ for a refund?! Jesus Christ. I know that US banking system is something else but this is preposterous.
I don’t see any reason to think that most of that delay is in the banking system and have every reason to think the overwhelming majority of the delay is in the US government’s system.
> They're zero-risk bonds... To qualify this, there is zero risk that the technical letter of the agreement won't be honoured. Lending money to the US government is very high risk right now. Simple person metrics like debt to GDP indicate they're currently fighting a bigger war than WWII, and the trend-line says they are losing. If you lend the US government enough money to buy a sandwich there is a real risk that at…
A very high risk? A bigger war than WWII? They are losing? Citation needed and who is they if you don't mean us.
“metrics like debt to GDP indicate they're currently fighting a bigger war than WWII,”
Meaning that the GDP trends as if we’re in a WW3 situation and loosing, not that we are. I.E the GDP/debt metric appears to be as bad as if we were loosing a war when in fact we’re not even fighting one.
Ironically I disagree with both points. Yes the economy is bad, yes it will get worse but:
- I don't think the economy is as bad as losing a world war; the US has too many fundamentals in her favor (namely resources and a strong Navy to prevent outside threats).
- Ironically enough we are in fact loosing a low intensity world war, mostly fought in diplomatic relations with third world countries. Just like the first Cold War, but with weaker fundamentals on our side.