41–50 of 54 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Putin aims for territorial expansion to reclaim the USSR plus some buffer space What is this claim even based on?
On the official Kremlin demand that NATO leaves all the post-Soviet and post-Warsaw Pact states. https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en
> NATO leaves all the post-Soviet and post-Warsaw Pact states
Are those equivalent?
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I suggest you watch this John Mearsheimer talk (2015) as I think it will help clear a lot of misconceptions you seem to have and also tighten your thinking about the matter. If there's gonna be a WW3, it'll be because the West wants a WW3. [2015] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
I've never found Mearsheimer's arguments on Ukraine all that convincing. I really liked Adam Roberts succinct take down in the Economist a couple weeks ago. I know Roberts doesn't address all Mearsheimer's points, but he hits the main ones https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/03/26/sir-adam-...
Yes, we are sleepwalking into WW3, much in the same way we sleepwalked into WW2. The West has completely misunderstood Putin, and will continue to do so until it's too late to stop these events (a strong show of force and a no-fly-zone would have stopped this, but it's too late now). Scholz is the Chamberlain of our age. Putin aims for territorial expansion to reclaim the USSR plus some buffer space, and to secure Ru…
> a strong show of force and a no-fly-zone would have stopped this, but it's too late now. Scholz is the Chamberlain of our age. It's not too late to put up a no-fly zone. If it was ok then, why is it not ok now?
If implemented now, a no-fly zone would require NATO aircraft to behave offensively, and would require strikes on Russian air defenses on the ground as well as aircraft.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
On the official Kremlin demand that NATO leaves all the post-Soviet and post-Warsaw Pact states. https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en
> territorial expansion to reclaim the USSR plus some buffer space > NATO leaves all the post-Soviet and post-Warsaw Pact states Are those equivalent?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I suggest you watch this John Mearsheimer talk (2015) as I think it will help clear a lot of misconceptions you seem to have and also tighten your thinking about the matter. If there's gonna be a WW3, it'll be because the West wants a WW3. [2015] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
OK, having transcribed and read the whole talk, I fail to see what misconceptions I have. Mearsheimer is mostly correct in that NATO expansion and Western misunderstanding of the Russian psyche precipitated the conflict in Ukraine, but this didn't change Putin's ambitions, which were always the same. Even Clinton is perplexed at Russian reactions: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/bill-clint... Mearsh…
I think there is still a ton of time for these intentions to play out, and I think they the quote is still accurate. Russia can not conquer all of Ukraine, and never attempted to do so. If they invasion went better than their wildest dreams, they might have taken what is east of the Dnieper, but would be unlikely to hold on to that.
The invasion did and still lines up with the intentions of regime change, and taking some boarder regions.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I suggest you watch this John Mearsheimer talk (2015) as I think it will help clear a lot of misconceptions you seem to have and also tighten your thinking about the matter. If there's gonna be a WW3, it'll be because the West wants a WW3. [2015] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
The west just played some superficial games. But in the end the west is not serious, and they won't seriously protect Ukraine. Ukraine would not join NATO, it was not real, the west does not have to balls. It was just a pretext for Putin to invade it.
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I'm being super generous when I say he's splitting hairs. Take this part: "These factors suggest that the 2008 proposal to expand NATO to include Georgia and Ukraine is just one among many developments that have made the current crisis so acute. It is arguable, indeed likely, that the NATO expansion proposal made matters worse, as may some other Western actions, but to assert that “the West is principally responsible…
I wouldn't say Roberts's arguments are splitting hairs, I'd say he's turning the whole thing around and saying Putin interpreted every Western action in the worst light possible, Russia decided that Ukraine was its domain, and the West and Ukraine had the right to define their own relations. Mearsheimer's argument boils down to: Russia thinks it has the right to do what it wants in Eastern Europe, and the West caused…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
OK, having transcribed and read the whole talk, I fail to see what misconceptions I have. Mearsheimer is mostly correct in that NATO expansion and Western misunderstanding of the Russian psyche precipitated the conflict in Ukraine, but this didn't change Putin's ambitions, which were always the same. Even Clinton is perplexed at Russian reactions: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/bill-clint... Mearsh…
>"In fact if you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is encourage it to try and conquer Ukraine. Putin again is much too smart to do that." I think there is still a ton of time for these intentions to play out, and I think they the quote is still accurate. Russia can not conquer all of Ukraine, and never attempted to do so. If they invasion went better than their wildest dreams, they might have taken what…
Russia did absolutely attempt to do exactly that. This invasion was modelled after Operation Danube, intended to:
- Cut off all major airstrips by landing planes in friendship and then unloading paratroopers to capture them.
- Quickly enter the major cities and capture the "illegitimate" government.
- Crush the pockets of resistance among the mostly pro-Russian populace.
- Install a Russia-friendly government.
- Execute the old government as a warning against other countries.
Of course, none of it went according to plan. The upper government was misinformed about their own military strength and preparedness, the supposedly already "pro-Russian" Ukrainians who would just stand by and let this happen, and the world response. Also, the Ukrainian military was forewarned, so the airstrip captures ... didn't exactly go according to plan :P
And since this was expected to take half a week tops, nobody bothered to set up proper supply lines or airforce + ground + artillery coordination. After all, why bother with all of that on a milk run?
Yes, we are sleepwalking into WW3, much in the same way we sleepwalked into WW2. The West has completely misunderstood Putin, and will continue to do so until it's too late to stop these events (a strong show of force and a no-fly-zone would have stopped this, but it's too late now). Scholz is the Chamberlain of our age. Putin aims for territorial expansion to reclaim the USSR plus some buffer space, and to secure Ru…
> Putin aims for territorial expansion to reclaim the USSR plus some buffer space What is this claim even based on?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/22/putin-...
https://notesfrompoland.com/2019/12/23/putin-blames-poland-f...
I know people in Poland who are alarmed at the threat to their country embodied in by this rhetoric. To say nothing of Finland, Estonia etc and Ukraine.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>"In fact if you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is encourage it to try and conquer Ukraine. Putin again is much too smart to do that." I think there is still a ton of time for these intentions to play out, and I think they the quote is still accurate. Russia can not conquer all of Ukraine, and never attempted to do so. If they invasion went better than their wildest dreams, they might have taken what…
"Russia can not conquer all of Ukraine, and never attempted to do so." Russia did absolutely attempt to do exactly that. This invasion was modelled after Operation Danube, intended to: - Cut off all major airstrips by landing planes in friendship and then unloading paratroopers to capture them. - Quickly enter the major cities and capture the "illegitimate" government. - Crush the pockets of resistance among the most…
Even then, operation Danube is more akin to regime change than conquering and occupying a country, which was mersheimers point