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Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

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Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#41

Post by randomdata »

thepasswordis wrote: post #35

I absolutely despise things like this. The war in Ukraine, amplified by the West's anemic and at best useless sanctions, have likely led to a famine which will effect millions of people. Yeah, us sitting here in our offices in the richest country in the world, arguably the people who helped cause this, won't be effected. Maybe our food prices go up a tiny bit. The people in developing countries, like usual, will now…

If we use price as a proxy for wheat availability, let's not forget that wheat was trading for under $5 in 2019. It was up to $8 before the war began. Now, close to $10. Which means that the war has made wheat 25% harder to come by, so to speak, when compared to before the war, but the pandemic and all that's related to that had already made it 60% harder to come by. The war effects would have been less noticeable if we weren't already pushing the limits.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#42

Post by JoeAltmaier »

thepasswordis wrote: post #35

I absolutely despise things like this. The war in Ukraine, amplified by the West's anemic and at best useless sanctions, have likely led to a famine which will effect millions of people. Yeah, us sitting here in our offices in the richest country in the world, arguably the people who helped cause this, won't be effected. Maybe our food prices go up a tiny bit. The people in developing countries, like usual, will now…

Gee and here I thought it was Putin who was dropping bombs. It's inconceivable he could just stop doing that? And go back to doing business peaceably?

It's not "Win or Die" for Russia. Anything but. It's one man's ego, and even Russians recognize that.

To assume only the US has any agency and only US actions make a difference, inevitably results in "The US is at fault for everything"

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#43

Post by stevesimmons »

thepasswordis wrote: post #35

I absolutely despise things like this. The war in Ukraine, amplified by the West's anemic and at best useless sanctions, have likely led to a famine which will effect millions of people. Yeah, us sitting here in our offices in the richest country in the world, arguably the people who helped cause this, won't be effected. Maybe our food prices go up a tiny bit. The people in developing countries, like usual, will now…

What would your solution be?

This is a serious question. Yes, sanctions hurt ordinary people. Yes, there are second order effects that will hurt many people in the developing world. But equally, giving in to Putin will create a bigger problem for Ukraine now, and for eastern Europe and Taiwan in future.

There are no easy solutions here. Otherwise they would have been taken already.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#44

Post by jtbayly »

prostoalex wrote: post #30
mooreds wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the shortfall in exported wheat is ~1% of global production, and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it, what is preventing Egypt and others from importing from those other countries to replace Ukraine/Russian exports? What am I missing?

> and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it Are they? Fertilizer prices are up 3x-5x, depending on where you look, due to Russian export restrictions, so for many farmers it's cheaper to wait it out and give the soil a rest. Planting reports have only started trickling in, so we don't have a good global view of what has been planted in spring 2022.

Most wheat was planted 4 months ago, according to the author.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#46

Post by nkurz »

Loughla wrote: post #8
mooreds wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the shortfall in exported wheat is ~1% of global production, and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it, what is preventing Egypt and others from importing from those other countries to replace Ukraine/Russian exports? What am I missing?

So spring wheat is harvested in the fall, and won't be planted for a little bit in the US, because it's just now starting to get to spring in many states. Winter wheat, which would be harvested this spring, should've been planted months ago. So there's a gap in production, regardless of where they get their wheat from, I guess is what I'm trying to get at.

> Winter wheat, which would be harvested this spring

Since this is a site that cares about accuracy, I'll mention that while winter wheat is planted in the winter, it's harvested in the summer or fall. It doesn't grow fast enough to be harvested in the spring. Instead, it's a way of getting a boost on the season by getting the roots established early. I don't think there is anywhere it can be harvested early enough that one can plant two crops per year in the same field. More details and dates for the US: https://www.machinefinder.com/ww/en-US/faq/when-is-winter-wh...

(If you want to claim that you are technically correct, I'll concede that it is true that hypothetical Florida or Alabama winter wheat might be harvested in May. I hadn't even known that they grow winter wheat there!)

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#47

Post by anonAndOn »

mentalpiracy wrote: post #27
lambic2 wrote: post #20

I don't understand why she mentions "most of the world plants wheat in the fall" if, as far as I understand, Ukraine plants their wheat in the spring. Since 1) we're in the middle of their planting season 2) Ukraine produced 40 million tons of wheat last year 3) Given the current situation it's very hard to predict how much wheat will be successfully produced this year - It looks like the majority of farmers won't be…

If you read two tweets down the thread, she explains that Ukraine is a winter wheat producer. Winter wheat is planted in the fall, and harvested in spring-summer. It has already been planted.

> Ukraine plants their wheat in the spring

This aligns with every single combat photo I've seen thus far. I don't think I've seen one field of winter wheat. So the shortfall is not in winter wheat, but in the types planted right now.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#48

Post by groby_b »

01100011 wrote: post #28
groby_b wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might want to (much less quickly) figure out what percentage of their exports is affected by their war, how the war & sanctions affect transportation & trade partners, and what the end result of that is. Nobody has stopped exports completely. Nobody has stopped planting wheat.

How much of the capacity is affected by: - manpower shortages due to war - infrastructure destruction (roads, ports, etc) - cropland destruction - higher fuel prices - higher fertilizer prices - regional weather fluctuations I see many towns in Ukraine are destroyed or emptied of people. I don't suppose farms in those towns will be producing anything this year.

These are all good questions, and I'm not denying Ukraine is suffering.

What I'm saying is that they likely still will export wheat. The amount is the question. I'm saying that the question is harder (a lot harder) than a quick Internet search on what percentage of world wheat production comes from Ukraine.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#49

Post by Robotbeat »

bell-cot wrote: post #21
pempem wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A sincere question: Would it not then be helpful to support these new or temporary supply chains as a war effort? Shouldn't that fall under humanitarian aid?

If the shortages are in rail lines, grain elevators, shipping terminals, bulk cargo ships, etc...no sort of "support" can create those at all quickly.

Trucks. Lots and lots of trucks.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#50

Post by bell-cot »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #36
bell-cot wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Egypt#Vital_st... Looks like the population went from ~15.4M in 1934 to ~100.5M in 2020. I'd bet that neither the area devoted to agriculture, nor the productivity (per unit area) increased by anything resembling that ~553% increase.

Probably it did. It did in the US over that time. Modern farming practices raised yields on some crops from ~20bu per acre to around 200 today.

Perhaps. But to skim over Egypt's economic history - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Egypt#History - their only substantial exports, back in the 1930's, were agricultural products. I'll guess that the British Empire was not generously subsidizing Egypt's food imports then, nor were there millions of free-spending tourists to be paying, nor...

Edit: Okay, perhaps Egypt had replaced many of its wheat fields with cotton fields by the 1930's, and was buying food with the cotton money. The British cotton industry might have loved that...but "massive food imports paid for with a cash crop" is a dangerous strategy to play long-term, or on a national scale. And Egypt threw off the last of the British yoke in the mid-1950's.

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