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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#41

Post by WJW »

CodeGlitch wrote: post #18

Here's my prediction: Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity. As it stands the West can do nothing. In the case that NATO starts shooting, the sarcophagus over Chernobyl can be bombed (Putin can blame Ukrainians here). It seems to be that there's no way out…

The west can do for the Ukrainians what Pakistan has been doing for decades for the Taliban: provide safe havens, supplies and weapons to small insurgent groups doing guerilla strikes against the Russians. The Ukraine is so large that to keep it occupied would take hundreds of thousands of troops and Russia cannot afford to keep up such mobilisation for long. They have a few months at most and properly beating an insurgency takes years if not decades.

I don't really buy the Chernobyl argument either. If the NATO starts shooting the Russians already have nuclear weapons to act directly. No need to crack open an old nuclear plant and hope the wind doesn't change.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#42

Post by jcadam »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #22
jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

What are you talking about? Zelenski just declined such an offer from russia.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/where-zelensky-is-open-...

> Along with "cooling down" to the idea of joining NATO, Zelensky told ABC News that there's room for negotiating on the occupied territories and unrecognized republics.

Read between the lines.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#43

Post by jessriedel »

rdtwo wrote: post #11

Do people put money on this because 4:1 odds are pretty good. If definition of fall is a mission accomplished type photo op I’d take those odds. If it’s prolonged stable holding then I probably would not

To be clear, Metaculus is a prediction aggregation platform, not a prediction market. There's no money at stake, only reputation.

https://www.metaculus.com/about/

It's well recognized, including my Metaculus users and admin, that money can provide a powerful incentive for accuracy which they do not use (presumably because this would be a very different, more legally encumbered platform). However, they attempt to make up for this by having many more predictions and, crucially, but weighting more heavily the predictions of people whose predictions have been more accurate in the past.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#44

Post by axg11 »

gremlinsinc wrote: post #24
jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

I think Zelenskyy should take: No eu/Nato membership (face it, he's months or years from qualifying anyways), and he leaves Donbask, and Crimea (for now), but does NOT agree to disband any military, and is allowed to secure his own borders. In otherwords he can still ramp up, then the west simply continues squeezing Putin and Russia for a year, or 3... then he can either go take back Crimea/Donbask regions, or perhap…

You’re letting your imagination run a little too wild here. Depending on which polls you believe, 20-50% of Russians support this invasion. There is no end scenario where Russians are content being ruled by a non-Russian, even in a newly formed democratic state.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#45

Post by jessriedel »

polishdude20 wrote: post #33
ncr100 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not so basic. Survey with the predictors (humans) being ranked in their impact on the conclusion based on their historical prediction success.

Ah so the better you do in previous surveys, the more weight it puts into your prediction?

Yes.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#46

Post by otherme123 »

ch4s3 wrote: post #16
jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

It's a lot better than the regime change that Russia was initially aiming for. Fighting a large neighboring power to a standstill and suing for peace is quite the success.

Basically what Finland achieved in the heroic Winter War. True, Finland lost some terrain, but I don't think anyone would find the aftermath as a soviet victory, when the original desire was to anexate the whole country.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#47

Post by antihero »

Reminds me of the time Trump won and I'd "hedged my emotions" - chucked £50 on him winning when he had 1/10 odds, so figured my friends and I could spend the £500 (that I eventually won) drink our sadness away in the pub that evening. Worked an absolute charm.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#48

Post by Chris2048 »

otherme123 wrote: post #31
jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

Maybe Zelenskyy doesn't like thousand of Ukraines dying for some inflated ego, potentially millions. That solution, and specially if acompanied with guarantees of no further agressions if Ukraine doesn't enter NATO or EU, is a win for the country, and a pyrric victory for Putin: his credibility is gone forever, and all he got is a small piece of terrain. Enough to sell internally as a win, but hardly anywhere else.

> if accompanied with guarantees of no further aggressions

Which Russia cannot provide since they already promised not to invade.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#49

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 »

rdtwo wrote: post #11

Do people put money on this because 4:1 odds are pretty good. If definition of fall is a mission accomplished type photo op I’d take those odds. If it’s prolonged stable holding then I probably would not

The insurgency in Iraq was also a minority- most supported the US. I like to imagine that Russia will have a much more difficult time in Ukraine where they are almost universally despised.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#50

Post by somedude895 »

babyshake wrote: post #34
rdtwo wrote: post #11

Do people put money on this because 4:1 odds are pretty good. If definition of fall is a mission accomplished type photo op I’d take those odds. If it’s prolonged stable holding then I probably would not

Prediction markets for real money that relate to violent outcomes are a very dangerous territory ethically. You could bet the Kyiv will fall and then provide support or resources to the Russian forces, for example. A more practical example would be something like an assassination prediction.

If you have the sort of influence or resources to make something like an assassination or war happen, then it's really easy to make money on those things already, for example by shorting certain stocks. And I'm sure that's already been happening for a while to some extent.
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