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What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

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Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#41
post #10
post #8

Quoted post unavailable.

The war is already in the indiscriminate killing phase and moving towards just destroy city phase. Should be there in few days. Slav fellowship does not work in wars. No fellowship works in wars.

Respectfully, the indiscriminate killing we have seen so far - while awful - does not even remotely hold a candle to what happened in Syria.

They are clearly pulling their punches, likely because of the ethnic/racial dynamics of this conflict.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#42
I believe they were working under the assumption it would be a walk in the park, once the central government was captured or killed.

To strengthen this assumption here's a canned article which was likely meant to be published had things gone according to plan, but pulled, since they hadn't.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220226224717/https://ria.ru/20...

RIA is a state owned news agency.

Why precisely they thought they'd meet no serious opposition in their attempted airdrop near Kyiv is anyone's guess. Mine is that Putin started believing his own tales about Nazis taking Ukraine hostage, assuming the populace is dying to be liberated from them.

Things crumbled once this met a different reality on the ground, and now they're trying to raise the stakes, and have become desperate enough to begin indiscriminately shelling population centres, Kharkiv most notably.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#43
post #15

It's also possible there are new, not-yet-publicly-disclosed anti-aircraft countermeasures/weapons. So, after seeing hints of greater-than-expected losses from unknown causes, the Russians may be wary of putting more aircraft at risk until more is understood, & tactics adapt.

I'm not sure if that makes sense. The goal is not to shoot aircraft down, the goal is to prevent them from coming in the first place.

Wouldn't you want to disclose the hell out of your extremely effective anti-aircraft weapons so you don't have to use them as much? Obviously not the positioning or numbers but just that you have them...

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#44
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was an armored vehicle being pulled by what looked like a tractor. I don't think it was in any condition to fire on the car.

Those are two separate videos. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-molo...

Look closely at 0:04 and you can see the armored vehicle under tow, though, in the molotov video.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Slav fellowship does not work in wars. No fellowship works in wars. Historically combatants have treated their opponents differently based on race and existing cultural attitudes. Don't see why it would be any different this time around.

That doesn’t mean it’s predictable. Could be they treat their fellow Slavs worse!

Tim Dillon had a Ukrainian comedian call in to his podcast who made the quip, yes we are family, but families can hate each other even more than strangers.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#46

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Air_Force#2021%E2%80%9... In terms of numbers according to the Wikipedia article they have about 650 air planes and ~300 helicopter's. Thats a solid fighting force for a relatively small country. Russia as lots of tools - missiles and such that are good at destroying buildings. The problems in that Putin understands that the cities in Ukraine have value. He is trying to take them…

There's around 40 million people that might have a problem with that.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#47
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was an armored vehicle being pulled by what looked like a tractor. I don't think it was in any condition to fire on the car.

Those are two separate videos. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-molo...

That video player didn't work for some reason.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are always going to be civilian casualties in war, but it sure looks like they are trying to limit them. Would be worth comparing to other, similar conflicts. Surely a full scale air campaign would lead to more civilian casualties?

Russia is using thermobaric and cluster munitions in Kharkiv. I really just don't think that Russia has quite as many PGMs as we think and Russia is close enough to most of Ukraine that they can launch regular old rockets from safe territory on the ground.

Has the use of thermobarics been confirmed? I know they were spotted in the area and there was an explosion in Kharkiv, but it could have been gas pipelines that were hit, and I've also see that explaination for the explosion videos.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#49
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The war is already in the indiscriminate killing phase and moving towards just destroy city phase. Should be there in few days. Slav fellowship does not work in wars. No fellowship works in wars.

> Slav fellowship does not work in wars. No fellowship works in wars. Historically combatants have treated their opponents differently based on race and existing cultural attitudes. Don't see why it would be any different this time around.

There's plenty of history for how the Russians treat the people of Ukraine, we don't need to guess.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#50
I think we need to consider the possibility that much of the Russian army only existed on paper, and that the true strength was overinflated by trickling up good news only throughout all ranks of the military.[1] Readiness was overstated. Equipment was overstated. Training was for parades, not combat. Everyone in the Russian military had assumed they'd never actually fight a real war, so they could grift and sell rations on the side.

Putin didn't realize that his military was hollowed-out when he made the call to invade, and thus everyone scrambled to fill in the gaps of their units with conscripts. That's why we're seeing an unusually high number of captured Russian forces who appear to have nearly no military training or experience. We've seen bizarre tactics that make no sense - tanks being abandoned, APCs driving with no support, etc.

It stands to reason that if we're asking "Where's the Russian Air Force?", the answer is that it may never have existed in the size we thought. IMO this is a more logical answer than trying to figure out some 3D chess strategy of why Russia wouldn't their planes during the largest invasion since WWII.

[1] https://www.vox.com/2016/2/23/11092614/putin-army-threat

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