41–50 of 141 posts
The current state of NFTs etc. amazes me in the context of Beanie Babies. So many people have learned nothing. Granted the time gap means these are entirely new people making those mistakes. We have such a degraded level of discourse now that if it were used in the Beanie Baby craze there would be people arguing about whether all soft toys are evil.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Oh, bubbles can surely happen even in the era of widespread information. Look no further than housing. A few points on housing: - real home prices have now surpassed the 2000s peak - household formation and population growth has been decelerating, while building has been accelerating. - there are 1.1 homes per household, same as the year 2000. We are not at historically low supply as some claim. Only low in terms of…
What is your argument on mortgate rates? That lenders will be unwilling to lend out at (still low) central bank rates due to inflation? I don't follow the reasoning.
10y treasury yields 2% while inflation is 7.5%. Ergo mortgages will almost certainly run to 5-6% within a few months once the market perceives that inflation is not transitory and start selling off the 10y treasury en masse.
We have seen this move already starting. It's why mortgages have run from 3-4% in just two months. But not even close to pricing in inflation.
Mortgages were 5% in 2018 when inflation was significantly lower. We may even get to 6-7% in a shorter period of time
The current state of NFTs etc. amazes me in the context of Beanie Babies. So many people have learned nothing. Granted the time gap means these are entirely new people making those mistakes. We have such a degraded level of discourse now that if it were used in the Beanie Baby craze there would be people arguing about whether all soft toys are evil.
There’s currently a pump and dump on retro video games but I don’t think the same supply issues exist in Pokémon cards, but I’m not actively monitoring either market.
I’m not a crypto evangelist or anything, but what about alternatives like Pokémon cards which seem to have increased in value over the same period. There’s currently a pump and dump on retro video games but I don’t think the same supply issues exist in Pokémon cards, but I’m not actively monitoring either market.
There's a game behind the cards. And certain cards increase your chances of winning.
Lot of people making comparisons to crypto / NFTs etc. Looking at it from another angle, what are the best examples of things that lots of people thought were bubbles, but turned out not to be?
But the prices keep on going up.
Lot of people making comparisons to crypto / NFTs etc. Looking at it from another angle, what are the best examples of things that lots of people thought were bubbles, but turned out not to be?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> while building has been accelerating massively Nope, we have a decade of underproduction that led us to this crisis
Builders have been working as fast as they can (and sometimes faster than they should) around here non-stop since maybe 2011 or 2012, and it's not enough. Tons of new neighborhoods, probably half the apartment buildings I know of were put up in the last ten years, and so on, but house prices and rent are nuts and still increasing faster than inflation anyway. We're at the end of what sure looks like about a decade-lo…
Growth.
In the last 40 years, the US population has picked up 100 million people. 227M vs 329M [1].
By 2050, the US population is estimated to be 379 million (+50M), and by 2100, it will be 434 million (+ an additional 55M) [2].
That's a lot of housing need to fill.
[1] Google "US population"; I'm not sure if these figures includes those here on non-permanent visas, but if not, it would probably increase the growth even more.
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...