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How SoftBank’s costly bet on the ‘internet of things’ backfired at Arm

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41–50 of 90 posts

Re: How SoftBank’s costly bet on the ‘internet of things’ backfired at Arm

#41
post #25

How it 'backfired', if it is going to do an IPO? Post IPO its market value could be much higher than acquisition price of $31B. Failure to sell to Nvidia at 2X the acquisition price is not a failure, it was an honest attempt to make a profit.

Analysts do not expect ARM to IPO at over $32B (https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/arm-ipo-marks-sober-end...). That is why Softbank agreed to the acquisition offer in the first place, otherwise they would have just gone for an IPO directly.

Re: How SoftBank’s costly bet on the ‘internet of things’ backfired at Arm

#42
post #40
post #11

lol the cortex a7 is still the go to low power arm cpu. how a vast company with all the funding in the world can "bet on iot" but fail so miserably to make any improvement or change at all for so long is something i don't think I'll ever understand. dont get me started on how impossible to purchase most chips are, how inaccessible/non-existant the docs are, how vendored the frak up the screwball drivers are. what a d…

The Cortex-M4 is the goto low-power CPU.

Depends on your audience. M4 is decidedly midrange to me. Modern low power would probably be an M0, to others it still means 8 bit AVR.

Re: How SoftBank’s costly bet on the ‘internet of things’ backfired at Arm

#43
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not as simple a comparison. We don't know the annual return % since all the money wasn't invested on day 1 but at various different points over 5 years. And the majority of it is still tied up in companies that haven't exited yet, so the value is mostly theoretical.

Sp500 is meant to be the benchmark. This is very unfair to present worst numbers than the benchmark and present it as a win even if numbers can be off.

Vision Fund's minimum term is 12 years, and it will likely go on for a lot longer than that. Comparing its very early years to a stock market bull run is pointless. Like 40 out of 400-500 total investments have even seen an exit yet.

Re: How SoftBank’s costly bet on the ‘internet of things’ backfired at Arm

#44
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://visionfund.com/portfolio ByteDance, Grab, Ola, Uber, Opendoor, Slack, DoorDash, Didi, Coupang were/are all great bets. According to CrunchBase ( https://news.crunchbase.com/news/softbank-vision-fund-strate... ), as of March 31, 2021 Vision Fund 1 was worth $146.5 billion from $86.2 billion in initial investment. I don't know enough about the space to judge whether that is considered good enough or not.

This is still underperforming the sp500 who went up 87% in the same 5 years.

The pandemic killed a lot of good bets at Soft Bank. The rogue wave was not kind to anyone.

Re: How SoftBank’s costly bet on the ‘internet of things’ backfired at Arm

#45
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is still underperforming the sp500 who went up 87% in the same 5 years.

Investors in Vision Fund likely have the goal of returns for this investment that are not similar to the S&P 500 or other public equity indices. I'd further bet that 15-20% annualized is considered a very good result for this part of those investors' portfolios.

sp500 has both better returns and better diversification so less overall risks. And I am sure Vision Fund has higher expenses ratio than most of sp500 indexes. The only ones winning here is the execs of the fund.

Re: How SoftBank’s costly bet on the ‘internet of things’ backfired at Arm

#48
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investors in Vision Fund likely have the goal of returns for this investment that are not similar to the S&P 500 or other public equity indices. I'd further bet that 15-20% annualized is considered a very good result for this part of those investors' portfolios.

sp500 has both better returns and better diversification so less overall risks. And I am sure Vision Fund has higher expenses ratio than most of sp500 indexes. The only ones winning here is the execs of the fund.

You aren't understanding how capital and risk allocation work at a portfolio level. The people putting money in the SoftBank funds ALREADY have hundreds of billions invested in public equities. They are looking to diversify their portfolio across different asset classes. Your comment isn't relevant.

Re: How SoftBank’s costly bet on the ‘internet of things’ backfired at Arm

#49
post #11

lol the cortex a7 is still the go to low power arm cpu. how a vast company with all the funding in the world can "bet on iot" but fail so miserably to make any improvement or change at all for so long is something i don't think I'll ever understand. dont get me started on how impossible to purchase most chips are, how inaccessible/non-existant the docs are, how vendored the frak up the screwball drivers are. what a d…

Cortex a7 is whats used on some raspberry pi boards, kind of overpowered for IoT I would think. Maybe as a hub device. Unless you go Juicero kind of cracy.

Re: How SoftBank’s costly bet on the ‘internet of things’ backfired at Arm

#50
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The “This Week in Startups” podcast from last week, episode 1378, interviewed the CEO. They are hiring their own drivers and building their own delivery hubs, meaning products you order are coming from their hubs, not from CVS or Walmart. They have more control over efficiency. They even acquired BevMo and are converting those into hubs.

I'm still skeptical that anyone will win that space. The core problem (instant delivery logistics in a dense urban area) is just too expensive for the average consumer to bear. Right now every player is VC subsidized, but what happens when that money dries up?

Why do you think it’s (eventually) too expensive? Do you think distribution is too expensive?
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