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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#41

Post by lbrito »

gameswithgo wrote: post #6

EDIT: After reading the full paper and not just the twitter graphs, some of what I said is wrong. That is, they also controlled for age, and when controlling for age and road type, autpilot was just worse. On the one hand I had the same suspicion about the unadjusted data, on the other hand the fact that autopilot isn't worse is pretty promising! However, average human rates include people driving drunk, tired, elder…

>So at 43 when I am driving sober, I'm probably safer not using autopilot. When I was 19 probably safer to use autopilot.

That might work out for you, but if teens think like that _now_ and avoid years of driving experience, they can't expect to be any better at driving at 43 than they are as teenagers, which kind of kills the argument.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#42

Post by hervature »

yrral wrote: post #12

How about the predominately male ownership of teslas causing higher accident rates. I see the paper adjusts for age and road type but missing gender is a pretty big slip-up? I didn't read the paper fully but grepped for "gender" and "sex" and couldn't find anything.

Don't forget to adjust for the 50% greater distance driven by men [1]. In reality, per mile drive, the difference in genders is negligible and maybe even counter to what most people believe. Of course though, men will pay more in insurance because driving is inherently dangerous and driving that much more frequently is problematic.

[1] - https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#44

Post by nja »

I was just watching this video of a Tesla trying and miserably failing to drive itself through the streets of Boston: https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1488555256162172928

A number of these near-crashes seem to be pretty odd errors (a couple of times it just decided to drive on the wrong side of the street?) -- albeit ones that one _could_ see drivers unfamiliar with the area making.

If a human driver started driving on the wrong side of a street, etc -- at least in Boston -- they would be greeted by a chorus of horns and rude gestures from those around, which would hopefully indicate to them that they were in error. Brings up an interesting question: does anyone know if Teslas are monitoring for surrounding horns/etc?

Another common problem in Boston is being blocked by geese crossing the road. Are Teslas able to detect such low, slow-moving obstacles?

It seems like it's not super feasible to rely on self-driving vehicles in a dense city like Boston, but maybe such features could be geofenced to areas like highways?

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#45

Post by sandworm101 »

djanogo wrote: post #35
Xylakant wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's fair to compare to the average driver. You may be not average by virtue of not being a teenager and not driving drunk, but you're not magically immune to being run over or crashed into by one of those. So even if a hypothetical FSD capable car would not drive one yota better than you do, it cwould still make you safer by virtue of making the surrounding environment safer.

It can't be just any "average driver", they should be compared against "average driver" who just bought $40-50K NEW car.

>> "average driver" who just bought $40-50K NEW car.

Driver and buyer/owner are different things. Few teenagers ever buy a Tesla, but they certainly drive them. A car cannot only be safe in the hands of the rich initial buyer who lives in a nice climate. It must be safe in all the other people who that owner may let drive. It must also be safe for subsequent second and third owners, people who might not be wealthy enough to stay home when it rains or when the autopilot thinks conditions are too rough. (It was -35c on my drive to work this morning. Dark. Ice fog then blowing snow.)

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#47

Post by ajross »

paxys wrote: post #22

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry. The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car…

> several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of.

This is a fallacy. Ask any demographic you like if they're road ragers, drunk drivers, etc... and they'll deny it. Everyone is sure that rare and terrible outcomes will never happen to them because of their own behavior, including the people to whom it happens!

It's probably true that middle aged premium car owners are safer on average, but you don't get to rule that stuff out by fiat. In fact there have been a few "Autopilot Saves Passed Out Driver" stories over the past few months, where Tesla drivers were clearly impaired.

As for this particular paper: this is just P-hacking folks. You can't take a vague dataset[1] and then "correct" it like this without absolutely huge error bars. Why correct based only these variables? Why did they all push the results in one direction? Why not gender? Why not income? Why not compare vs. like cars?

This isn't good statistics, it's just more statistics. If we want the real answers we should get a better data set (which, I'll agree, would likely involve some regulatory pressure on manufacturers).

[1] And, to be fair: Tesla's safety report is hardly comprehensive and provides no data other than the aggregate numbers.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#48

Post by ajross »

lordnacho wrote: post #3

Wow, adjusted for driver age the difference vanishes. That's quite an interesting observation, and it shows the importance of proper statistics. It also raises questions about companies producing their own stats, it's often only when someone takes the time to dig into it that we discover this kind of thing. I am not holding my breath waiting for the common consumer to understand statistical critical thinking though.…

This isn't "proper statistics", this is P-hacking. Tesla's data is incomplete and bad. But going out and finding confounding variables to confirm your priors isn't the treatment.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#49

Post by NikolaNovak »

sandworm101 wrote: post #20
jacquesm wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just thought it was odd that the company was playing quite so fast and loose with their safety claims. That's because it's marketing, not science.

And because it's Tesla, not Honda. Every car company does marketing. Few make over-the-top safety claims about their products. This is the company that decided to have its cars not stop at stop signs. Normal rules don't apply to Tesla. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60230072 "In recall documents, the electric vehicle maker notes that if certain conditions are met, the "rolling stop" feature is designed to allow…

I mean... I am "Tesla Hater" in that I don't like the direction they're proceeding in; but every human being I ever met in real actual life does rolling stops under some conditions. Last time I can confidently state that "I never rolled through a stop at very slow speed" is when I was 17, and only NOW do I realize how much of an annoying bum I was :P. So if a car does a rolling stop through a stop sign when there are no other cars obstacles or people, my thought is 1. yes that's a breach of law as written 2. It's what everybody else safely does.

Kind of like in many jurisdictions, police will gently talk to you if you drive 60kph on the freeway, or even if you're doing 90kph in the left lane. Yes it's legal, no it isn't safe.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#50

Post by maxerickson »

hartator wrote: post #46

Also feel they compare Tesla with autopilot vs. other cars. Instead of Tesla with autopilot vs. Tesla without autopilot. As Teslas have way better crash tests but doesn't mean autopilot is safer.

Being safer in a crash doesn't make it okay to crash.
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