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World ocean temperatures in 2021 were the hottest ever recorded

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Re: World ocean temperatures in 2021 were the hottest ever recorded

#41

Is anyone on HN reconsidering having children because of climate change? Recently I've had a big shift myself on this topic, probably influenced by not many women my age (younger than 30) having any interest in bringing a child into a world where they could potentially suffer real physical danger due to climate change.

Well, we can't give them back. ;-) But it's something that I've thought about even though the die is already cast. I'm also not sure what country I'd want to bring kids into today.

Re: World ocean temperatures in 2021 were the hottest ever recorded

#42

Is anyone on HN reconsidering having children because of climate change? Recently I've had a big shift myself on this topic, probably influenced by not many women my age (younger than 30) having any interest in bringing a child into a world where they could potentially suffer real physical danger due to climate change.

I think it is reasonable to not have kids if you think the probability of an acceptable quality of life for them is too low. I only agreed to have kids because I have a spouse who earns above average and I feel secure that we will be able procure resources and equip the kids well, but I think would have been just as happy if I had not had kids.

if you are posting on HN and you have children today, their baseline quality of life is better than 99.999% of that of recorded human history.

Re: World ocean temperatures in 2021 were the hottest ever recorded

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it is reasonable to not have kids if you think the probability of an acceptable quality of life for them is too low. I only agreed to have kids because I have a spouse who earns above average and I feel secure that we will be able procure resources and equip the kids well, but I think would have been just as happy if I had not had kids.

if you are posting on HN and you have children today, their baseline quality of life is better than 99.999% of that of recorded human history.

No doubt about that, and I make no judgment about other people's criteria or even lack thereof for having or not having children.

Re: World ocean temperatures in 2021 were the hottest ever recorded

#44

Is anyone on HN reconsidering having children because of climate change? Recently I've had a big shift myself on this topic, probably influenced by not many women my age (younger than 30) having any interest in bringing a child into a world where they could potentially suffer real physical danger due to climate change.

There's a word for this: "antinatalism".

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The idea that it could be morally or ethically better to not have children feels like further in-depth thought out examining the specifics in attempt for a rational and non-emotional answer would yield a pretty strong "no". It is a vastly personal decision and I would encourage you to answer this for yourself personally and to try to look for the arguments of those who are saying the opposite of your close social friends (if they are saying "no", then look for people saying "yes", if they are saying "yes", look for people who are saying "no").

The arguments that come to my mind:

1. The world has always been filled with an amount of danger to offspring, this is not more existential than it has been in the past (though it's often hyperbolized to be).

2. There are vast amounts of anecdotal stories about children who were "almost not born" (failed abortion, doctors or parents said it would be too hard, etc.) because of a parents decision who ended up having a hugely beneficial and/or great life.

3. There is a stronger effort now than ever before on correcting climate change. There are more opportunities than there ever have to make a difference. Your child could be one of these people.

4. I have seen no science that an additional child or children is going to inherently negatively increase climate change, which means having a motivated parent to better the world has a huge potential upside for the climate and low downside.

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An additional side, I would use any of amount of logic of "should have a child" either. If you don't want a child, I do not think you should have a child. A child needs love and compassion from its parents.

Re: World ocean temperatures in 2021 were the hottest ever recorded

#45
post #22

Is anyone on HN reconsidering having children because of climate change? Recently I've had a big shift myself on this topic, probably influenced by not many women my age (younger than 30) having any interest in bringing a child into a world where they could potentially suffer real physical danger due to climate change.

The irony of this is that the people who care about the wellbeing of the planet enough to question having children due to climate concerns are the ones who really should be having children. They are more likely to raise them to be conscious of issues like this, to look for solutions, and to minimize their impact.

On a long enough timeline I agree with your point, but your argument is one of the many many common examples we see now of people simply not understanding the timeline. 2050 is 29 years away. Kids born in the next few years will barely be out of school by the time we have to have this mostly solved.

Re: World ocean temperatures in 2021 were the hottest ever recorded

#46

I have the feeling that many people (especially politicians) think that global warming is a linear process. It's not. It might even be exponential since some sources for climate-warming are affected by warmer climate. For example, melting ice that reflects sunlight back to space [ https://arcticwwf.org/places/last-ice-area/ ]. I'm thinking about choosing a new place to live right now. Climate change is a big factor f…

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

Re: World ocean temperatures in 2021 were the hottest ever recorded

#47

I have the feeling that many people (especially politicians) think that global warming is a linear process. It's not. It might even be exponential since some sources for climate-warming are affected by warmer climate. For example, melting ice that reflects sunlight back to space [ https://arcticwwf.org/places/last-ice-area/ ]. I'm thinking about choosing a new place to live right now. Climate change is a big factor f…

Where ought one move to optimize for climate change?

Re: World ocean temperatures in 2021 were the hottest ever recorded

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you are posting on HN and you have children today, their baseline quality of life is better than 99.999% of that of recorded human history.

No doubt about that, and I make no judgment about other people's criteria or even lack thereof for having or not having children.

me neither, because there's no point in trying to convince someone to change their mind about whether or not to act upon their own primary biological instinct that they've been taught to suppress—it's a self-correcting problem, and one that most certainly doesn't concern me.

Re: World ocean temperatures in 2021 were the hottest ever recorded

#50
post #6

Chart has baseline at ~1995. They say we reached 200 zettajoules around 2019. 200 zettajoules => 2.0e23 J * 4.184 J/cal => 8.36e+23 calories They say this is the energy absorbed by top 2000 meters of the oceans. There are 84.8 million sq km of ocean. 2000m * 84.8e6 => 1.69e20 liters of water. 1000 calorie to warm 1L of water by 1 deg C. 1.69e20 L / 8.36e23 cal => warmed by 0.2 deg C since 1995.

If my calculations are correct, that's the equivalent of 52 billion Hiroshima bombs.
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